No ratings

Welcome back from the three day weekend, one and all, and we hope your Tuesday was a good one. We've obviously got plenty to talk about in light of today's market action, but before we let the week get too far ahead of us, let's go ahead and take our first look at what's likely to be a few earnings season report cards. I'll go ahead and warn you right now, however, you're not going to be too encouraged by what you're about to hear.

Q4 Earnings Season So Far

You may recall when we gave you a fourth quarter earnings preview back on January 8th, the S&P 500 was projected to earn $30.51 per share. That was going to be 8% better than the year-ago figure, and while we were still generally concerned about slowing growth, we figured that paltry 8% growth outlook was a lowball number mostly designed to let the market post an impressive overall "beat."

No ratings

Welcome to the weekend, folks. We've got plenty of good stuff for you today, but before we get to any of it we want to remind you Monday is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, and markets will be closed. Ergo, we won't be publishing. We'll be back at it on Tuesday. In the meantime...

We've got our usual market chat today, but before we get to that, we ARE going to be able to dissect the charts of bonds, yields, gold, and the U.S. dollar we teased you with yesterday. Heck, we pretty much have to have this discussion today, given last month's plunge in inflation.

You Might Want to Take a Seat

No ratings

Good hump-day, one and all. I guess all we can say is, ouch. Yes, we've survived worse, but today was in some ways a little different than prior stumbles. Today's stumble temporarily broke some - though not all - of the market's key support lines we've had our eye on for a while. Specifically, the S&P 500 spent some time under its 100-day moving average line today. The VIX also moved above its big ceiling at 21.5 before peeling back to close right at that level. Those are red flags, as it's not yet clear if we should assume the intraday reversal is going to get traction.

First things first. As you can see on our chart of the NASDAQ Composite below, the 100-day moving average line (gray) has once again proven itself as a support line. The composite kissed it today, and then began to climb. Don't discount the importance of this subtle bullish clue, even if we're still on the bearish side of the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines. We're still at risk of a more serious meltdown, but it's not underway yet.

No ratings

You know, it's not Tuesday's loss that concerns me. What concerns me is how the market started the day out on such a firmly-bullish foot after yesterday's stumble only to give it all back... and then some. The bulls had every reason in the world to plow back into stocks again, but rather than sustain the rally with a little buying, they backed down. At the same time, we saw another red flag suggesting the undertow is still bullish.

Yet, our big line in the sand remains intact, meaning there's still a glimmer of hope for a trade-worthy rally.

Let's just dig in, beginning with a chart of the NASDAQ. It is what it is. The composite briefly traded above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages for a bit today, but when push came to shove the bears won the battle, sending the NASDAQ back below those important battle lines.

No ratings

Welcome back from the weekend, everybody. Of course, it's not like stocks gave us the warmest welcome to the new trading week. The indices were in the hole to the tune of 0.8% on Monday, following through on Friday's weakness, but crossing under some key support levels that were still intact as of Friday's close.

And yet, the market has not fallen under the more significant floor that would really open the selling floodgates.

We'll slice and dice things as we usually do in a moment. First we want to take care of a couple of other items put on our editorial plate today. You'll see why they're both worth taking some time to cover.