Welcome back from the three day weekend, one and all, and we hope your Tuesday was a good one. We've obviously got plenty to talk about in light of today's market action, but before we let the week get too far ahead of us, let's go ahead and take our first look at what's likely to be a few earnings season report cards. I'll go ahead and warn you right now, however, you're not going to be too encouraged by what you're about to hear. Q4 Earnings Season So Far You may recall when we gave you a fourth quarter earnings preview back on January 8th, the S&P 500 was projected to earn $30.51 per share. That was going to be 8% better than the year-ago figure, and while we were still generally concerned about slowing growth, we figured that paltry 8% growth outlook was a lowball number mostly designed to let the market post an impressive overall "beat." Guess again. As of last Friday (the 16th), with 12% of the S&P 500's constituents having reported last quarter's results, the S&P 500 is only on track to earn $29.56 per share for the fourth quarter of 2014. That's only 4.7% better than the Q4-2013 per-share profit of $28.25, and 3.1% lower than what had been initially forecasted by Standard & Poor's. It's not an encouraging start to earnings season. The permabulls will be quick to point out you can't really jump to conclusions about a whole earnings season based solely on the first 12% of reports, and I don't disagree. On the other hand, one could argue we've only got 12% of reports in, and we're already well below the bar set before earnings season began. It should take a little longer than that to really start dialing down the outlooks, unless there's something problematic with every company's Q4 results. Be that as it may, I still don't think the overall earnings growth and comparisons are the whole story for Q4. We discussed this in detail a few weeks ago, but with some new data in hand we can update the conversation - the fourth quarter of 2014 may well be the one where record-breaking margins finally start to contract as stock buybacks and liquidity finally start to dry up a bit. The latest operating margin estimates from Standard & Poor's confirm my suspicion. Take a look. Yes, the market's overall margins are poised to contract in Q4 after a multi-year expansion that reached its apex in the second and third quarters of last year. Operating margins are projected to slide from Q3's 10.1% to 9.8%. We can't just blame energy either. Though the slump in crude prices is clearly going to take a toll on the energy sector's bottom line, six of the ten major sectors are looking at weaker profit margins for the fourth quarter. We know thinning margins isn't something too many other people are talking about at this time. That's the whole point. If you don't have a firm grip on the market's changing rhetoric before it becomes obvious and well-publicized, then you're already too late. The time to start thinking about these things is now, before they sink their teeth into valuations. Just understanding the hot buttons is half the battle. More directly, while a premium had been placed on earnings growth up until now, from here we've got a feeling the hotter stocks are going to be those that maintain or even grow profit margins. It may be time to start rethinking and reworking your holdings. That's all we're going to do earnings-wise for today, though I will let you know we're going to dive into earnings results at the sector level soon... maybe later this week. We'll see. Now, let's dissect today's wild ride for stocks. Up, But Not Up Enough to Matter Despite the intraday volatility, we obviously have to call Tuesday a win for the bulls. On the other hand, it's a bit of a meaningless victory. All the indices are still trading below their short-term moving average lines, and until stocks clear those low hurdles, there's not even any point in talking about any bigger-picture upside. Let's just start at the beginning by looking at the S&P 500's daily chart. We once again closed above the critical 100-day moving average line (gray) thanks to Tuesday's 0.15% advance, though we're still sitting on the underside of a major resistance level at 2047. As long as the S&P 500 remains trapped between the floor around 1971 and the ceiling at 2047, there's not much worth worrying about trading. The NASDAQ Composite's chart looks about the same, pushing up and off the support level around 4542 it hit and reversed at late last week. Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ really needs to clear its converged 20-day and 50-day moving average lines at 4705 before we can bother worrying about any apparent bullishness. You probably don't need me to tell you there's nothing definitive (yet) in the charts to tell us about the market's true direction, but just to make sure there's no confusion, the best place to be right now may be on the sidelines, waiting for the market to wiggle itself out of this rut. Just for the record though, I still contend we're due a sizable pullback... as in a move below the 1971 mark for the S&P 500, which should spark a much more meaningful selloff. Moreover, we now know earnings results for Q4 could easily be disappointing enough to cause real problems for the market. This isn't a time to get presumptuous though. Trading Ideas Looks like the crew of contributors at the website was busy this past weekend, as we saw several trading ideas and perspectives posted over the past 24 hours. Be sure to visit the site to see them all if you haven't yet. If you need a hand-picked group of recommended write-ups to read, though, here are three I think you absolutely have to see. Advaxis and Methes Energies: Out With One, In With the Other (MEIL, ADXS) - James Brumley points out not one but two opposing, trade-worthy reversals worth a look. Is Borate a Actor or Rare Earth Element Opportunity? - Chris Vermeulen has spotted a potential reversal opportunity, but it's not Borate. Borate, in fact, isn't even the name of a company. It's a chemical compound that's needed by hundreds of companies. Chris serves up a clear reason why you should care, and how you can play it. Blackhawk Network Holdings (HAWK): Did Cramer Bring Out the Shorts? GDOT & EEFT - Peter Graham takes a good look at a name that's trying to compete against major prepaid card players like Green Dot. It's the short interest, however, that really makes this story so interesting. Of course, these ideas aren't the only way to get some stock picks. The best way, in fact, is still to sign up for the free stock-picking alerts (text and e-mail) the Elite Opportunity team has agreed to dish out to our free newsletter readers going forward. A bunch of the earliest ones have worked out real nicely, but there are always more on the way. If you haven't registered yourself for this incredible - and complimentary - service yet, don't waste any more time. Subscribe today, and get the EO's next hot stock pick.... for free. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/