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In yesterday's edition of the newsletter I made a point of explaining how the Elite Opportunity service wasn't just for short-term traders - it's also for long-term investors. Even that clarification, however, didn't do the EO newsletter justice in light of what happened this morning.

What happened? Airline JetBlue (JBLU) reported last quarter's earnings this morning. They were great. It matters to you and I and all the Elite Opportunity members because the subsequent 8% jump from JBLU today has pushed the gain on the JBLU trade up to 66% since the EO's purchase of it back in mid-October. Nice call, John Monroe.

It was also one of the Elite Opportunity's trading ideas we passed along to - gratis - back around the same time. (Though we usually don't dish out the EO's picks, every now and then we will just to make the point that Monroe and his team know how to find buried treasure.) I hope you acted on it at the time. If you did, you're up nicely too. Just so you know though, what you're missing out on if you're not a full Elite Opportunity member is all the trade-management in the meantime, and the exit instructions whenever that time comes.

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Well, in retrospect, we can't be too surprised the Fed is standing pat on its earlier clues it would be raising interest later this year. Not that it firmly believes it should, but if Janet Yellen and her buddies were to dial back their enthusiasm now - after talking the economy up just a couple of months ago - it could really pull the rug out from underneath stocks. So, they're pretty much committed at this point.

Just for the record though, the Fed meeting minutes maintained the "patient" language, which we interpret as meaning it's not going to force higher rates on the market if it needs to change the plan later in the year.

For what it's worth, traders are saying a move isn't likely until October. That's when the Fed interest rate futures tip from predominantly a guess that the reserve rate will remain at 0.25% to a guess of 0.5%... though it's still a close margin for a rate increase in that timeframe. The commitment of futures traders says the odds favor a Federal reserve rate of 0.75% by January of next year, but again, that's a close race. This table from www.cmegroup.com (great site, by the way) illustrates how the market expects things to look a year from now.

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OK, now the market's just yankin' your chain.

Yes, within reach of what could have been a bullish catalytic move, stocks once again peeled back from the brink of bullishness at the least inopportune time. It's the third time in less than two months a rally effort petered out before it got a chance to get going. However...

While stocks clearly aren't back in a meaningful bullish mode yet, it's not like they're imploding right now either. The S&P 500 remains above the bulk of its key technical floors established by a combination of prior lows, moving average lines, and its lower band lines.

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Well, that closes the books on another trading week. Although the market (mostly) closed in the red on Friday, stocks still closed higher for the week, putting a convincing exclamation point on the reversal effort we saw start to materialize two weeks ago. From a trend-following perspective, we're still in the bullish camp, though we know this rally is going to face a sizeable headwind real soon if it remains in motion through the early part of next week.

We'll take a detailed look at what we're talking about in a moment. Let's go ahead and get some other business out of the way.

The Headlines Were a Little Misleading (Again)

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Happy hump-day, one and all. And what a Wednesday it was! Stocks started in the red but got pretty deep into positive territory by mid-day. The bears struck back after lunch, but by the time the closing bell rang, the bulls had pushed back to hammer out a decent gain of 0.5%.

Still, with stocks remaining below some key technical resistance despite testing it this afternoon, it's not like we can afford to get too excited. Just consider today another piece of evidence that traders on both sides of the table lack conviction, which makes for a lousy trading environment.

Oh, if you're a true day-trader or scalp trader and are watching intraday charts likes a hawk, then this environment is fine. For the bulk of us, though, the fact that the S&P 500 is back where it was in mid-November is more than a tad annoying. We need bigger movement to make it (trading) worth our while. Don't worry though.... we'll get it soon enough.