Welcome back from the weekend, everybody. Of course, it's not like stocks gave us the warmest welcome to the new trading week. The indices were in the hole to the tune of 0.8% on Monday, following through on Friday's weakness, but crossing under some key support levels that were still intact as of Friday's close. And yet, the market has not fallen under the more significant floor that would really open the selling floodgates. We'll slice and dice things as we usually do in a moment. First we want to take care of a couple of other items put on our editorial plate today. You'll see why they're both worth taking some time to cover. The Trend Nobody Sees Developing As I was reading this afternoon's edition of the Elite Opportunity newsletter, something hit me like a ton of bricks. What was so eye-popping about today's EO? In simplest terms, it was a reality check of how the Federal Reserve is somewhat boxed-in by weak inflation, weak oil, and a strong dollar in a world where the United States is actually something of an economic bright spot. I can't get into everything John Monroe and his team said, but trust me when I tell you it was the most comprehensive analysis of the entire situation the Fed is struggling to deal with right now I've seen. I'll just sum it up by saying, while the Fed may be painting a rosy picture, it's actually on the defensive. In any case, as I was reading how low inflation expectations and a strong dollar and falling oil prices make for a tricky situation, I realized there's something of a trade-worthy side story in all of this that most traders are simply overlooking because they're so distracted by other headlines. That "trade" is gold, but unlike oil, gold's got some upside in its foreseeable future. This is actually a somewhat counterintuitive move. Gold is a hedge against inflation, and gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar. Well, there's no real inflation on the radar, and the U.S. dollar has been racing to higher highs since September. Gold should be sinking. Charts don't lie though. If gold is perking up - and it is - against the odds then this is the market's way of telling us something. In this case, it's the market's way of saying the dollar may be done rallying and/or inflation is in the cards. There's no other evidence to make a bullish case on gold, mind you. I'm telling you though, I'd rather wager based on what traders are doing with real dollars then bet on a theory. And right now, gold is drawing a buying crowd. We'll keep tabs on this chart and give you any updates or context as needed. By the way, I didn't do our discussion of gold, the dollar, inflation, and the impact of oil the justice it deserves. If you've had a tough time getting a good grip and all of those trends and how they work together, you have to check out today's Elite Opportunity newsletter. If you're not an EO member, I suggest you sign up for one quarter, and check out today's newsletter found in the online archives that all Elite Opportunity members have access to. Here's the deal, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Like I Said... I'm not bragging, but did you notice which stocks and funds were up today while most other stocks were getting trashed? Those of you who read and acted on last Wednesday's newsletter may know I'm about to tell you REITs and other real estate were up firmly today, making the gains I figured they were poised to dole out even though the equity market was deep in the red. Here's the DJ Diversified REIT chart. And, here's the DJ Industrial and Office REIT chart. Just so there's no confusion, I'm not saying real estate rallied explicitly because the stock market stumbled. There may have been some of that, but that's not the big reason to own REITs here. The compelling part of real estate right now is that it does its own thing free of influence from the equity market. Right now that thing is bullish. Just sayin'. Whoops Well, there it is..... again. The NASDAQ Composite as well as the S&P 500 closed under their 20-day moving average lines and 50-day moving average lines, officially turning the technical tide in a bearish direction. The problem is, we've seen this before. In fact, we've seen it twice since mid-December, and neither of those technical breakdowns ever really went anywhere. Take a look. The make-or-break line is still in the 100-day moving average line (gray), currently at 4592. The composite only had to brush that line in late December and early January to renew the rally. Until this floor actually fails to hold up, we can't assume anything. And truth be told, I'm still not sure I would care if the NASDAQ broke under the 100-day moving average line. We've talked about this before, but it merits repeating now - the NASDAQ's 200-day moving average line near 4467 is a floor until proven otherwise, and the VIX has a ceiling at 23.6 until proven otherwise. This gives stocks a little more room to pull back without actually snapping the longer-term uptrend. In other words, this is a "buy on the dip" environment until the bigger floors actually buckle. It's still not our most important chart at this time, but for those who watch it, here's the S&P 500. The big line in the sand here is 4972, where several of the usual support lines are converging. More than anything though, know right now stocks are mostly range-bound, and should be viewed/traded as such. By the way, Alcoa (AA) got earnings season started on the right foot with a respectable beat. That didn't prevent the market from sinking sharply, but it's an encouraging omen for upcoming reports. We'll be posting the Q4 earnings report card updates as usual, once we have enough to bother reporting.