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The Truth About This Oil-Supply Glut (The Facts & the Rhetoric Don't Quite Jive)
SmallCap Network /

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Happy half-day, folks. Yes, today was a rare half-day for the market, which closed early to let traders get an early start on tomorrow's Christmas break. Any day the market opens even just for a few minutes, though, there's something worth talking about. Today was no exception, with oil plunging on the heels of a surge of stockpiled crude oil.


We'll get to the heart - and truth - of the matter in a moment. First, there's a small piece of business we need to take care of.

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Why All Eyes Are Now on the Russell 2000 Index
SmallCap Network /

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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You can really tell the holiday break is approaching. Volume was pretty anemic on Monday, and withered even more on Tuesday. There's almost not enough market activity to analyze... almost. We've got just enough to make it worth a look, which we'll do right after a quick look at the wave of economic data we had dumped in our laps today.


You may recall last week we heard November's housing starts and building permits. They weren't great. They weren't bad, per se - they just fell a little from October's pace. But, we'd certainly like to see forward progress all the time, and we haven't seen a lot of major forward progress from either in a long while.


Well, the real estate picture didn't get any prettier this week.

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No, Low Interest Rates Don't Justify High P/E Ratios
SmallCap Network /

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome back to the trading week, friends and fellow traders. We're excited about bringing you today's edition because it's going to be somewhat interactive... we're going to be answering a reader's question. Before we get to it though, it's a perfect segue into a reminder we can't give you often enough - we read every single e-mail you guys (and gals) send us, and we respond when appropriate. If it's a response all of our readers will benefit from, we answer it right here in the newsletter. So, go ahead and send them in.


Anyway, we got one question this weekend I'm willing to bet most of you were at least asking in the back of your minds. Bruce asks:


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Stocks Surge Right Back Into a Valuation Problem, But Does it Really Matter?
SmallCap Network /

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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So much for my "this is nothing more than a Fed-driven, dead-cat bounce" theory. I wasn't surprised to see a surge on Wednesday; the planets were lining up for a big surge then. To see such follow-through today though? There's no denying it's impressive. Heck, we could almost call it the beginning of another bullish leg.... but just almost.


I'll show you the couple of things still concerning me about Wednesday's and Thursday's gains in a second. The first thing I want to do is give credit where it's due.

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Stocks Jump on Fed's Outlook? Meh... Not Impressed.
SmallCap Network /

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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As far as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions go, that one (along with the commentary and outlook) was about as ambiguous as most of the recent ones. The only major change I saw was the removal of the "considerable time" language, which was replaced by "patient" in terms of how much longer the Fed is going to hold off on a rate hike. Everything else - and the economic outlook in particular - was relatively upbeat.


We don't disagree, mind you. You'll get a better idea of why we agree in a moment. First, let's run-down today's market action and figure out what it means for you.

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