Good hump-day, one and all. I guess all we can say is, ouch. Yes, we've survived worse, but today was in some ways a little different than prior stumbles. Today's stumble temporarily broke some - though not all - of the market's key support lines we've had our eye on for a while. Specifically, the S&P 500 spent some time under its 100-day moving average line today. The VIX also moved above its big ceiling at 21.5 before peeling back to close right at that level. Those are red flags, as it's not yet clear if we should assume the intraday reversal is going to get traction. First things first. As you can see on our chart of the NASDAQ Composite below, the 100-day moving average line (gray) has once again proven itself as a support line. The composite kissed it today, and then began to climb. Don't discount the importance of this subtle bullish clue, even if we're still on the bearish side of the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines. We're still at risk of a more serious meltdown, but it's not underway yet. As for the S&P 500, like we mentioned above, it did trade under its 100-day line for a while, but when push came to shove late in the day the bulls were able to make sure the close was above that line. You can also see the key 1971 level is still intact. So, even if the S&P 500 breaks under the 100-day moving average line at 2008, no biggie. Now, while the market may not technically be in breakdown mode yet, I wanted to give you an updated weekly chart of the S&P 500 with its long-term bullish channel. The lower edge of the channel still hasn't been broken, but the pressure is clearly on. It's at 1991, and today's low of 1988 from the S&P 500 means we need to keep a close eye on this chart. You can also see on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 how the VIX continues to put pressure on its ceiling at 21.5. We moved above that level today and then pulled back, but the bigger uptrend from the VIX is still in place, in my view. I'm still pretty certain the broad market is going to have to go through a corrective move even though we don't have true negative momentum yet. Sorry, but I have to call them like I see them. Again though, a pullback isn't a bear market. A pullback is a buying opportunity, and I think the short-term bottom is going to look a lot like October's capitulation. To tell you the truth, however, I'd rather see stocks fall a little further now than they did in October. We'll talk more about that when the time comes. Retail Sales Are NOT Alarmingly Weak On the off-chance you don't know what sparked today's steep selloff, it was last month's retail sales (as reported by the Department of Commerce). They weren't great. Overall retail spending was projected to rise by 0.1% in December, but it actually fell 0.9%. Removing automobiles from the equation, retail sales fell 1.0% versus the anticipated 0.1% increase. Truth be told, I don't think the market stumbled specifically because retail spending looked lackluster last month. The market's been acting like it wants to pull back for a while now, but traders just needed a tangible reason. They got one that was good enough today. It could have been any mildly-concerning news, really, and I suspect the selloff would have materialized anyway. Regardless, I think the data is worth diving into more deeply than the media did, as once again, the headlines and commentaries just didn't give you the perspective I think you guys deserve. With that in mind, here's the long-term retail spending trend - expressed in whole dollars, and seasonally-adjusted - for various groupings of industries that are involved in consumer spending. See if you see anything interesting. To be fair, there were some areas that weren't great. Auto sales and auto parts (blue, at the bottom) - one of the biggest groupings of retail-spending measures - fell a little. And yes, overall retail sales (top, purple) really did fall. Look at what happens when you take food services out of the equation though (aqua, third down). Spending on physical goods actually went way up! The culprit was retail spending at gasoline stations (orange, second from top). That figure has been falling gently for a few months, but really cratered in December. Care to guess what's included in the gasoline station spending total? If you guessed gasoline sales, you're right. And you don't need me to tell you gas prices have been dirt cheap for the past few weeks. Yes, what I'm saying is, retail consumption was actually quite firm last month. You just have to look deeper into the numbers, which unfortunately, the media doesn't. Fortunately your friends here at the SmallCap Network are willing and able to do this kind of research for you, keeping you in tune with what's really going on. Just so there's no confusion, I'm not saying deceptively-decent retail spending data for December is going to spark a quick near-term rebound. I'm just saying the chatter that we're seeing signs of a recession are completely off-base. It's all about oil, but oil's implosion isn't about waning demand - it's about an abundant supply. Now you have the facts. For what it's worth, John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity newsletter said something similar in today's edition of the EO. He said: "All of this negative slowing global economy stuff we're starting to hear is nothing but a bunch of tail wagging the dog stuff. In my opinion, it's what the financial media is coming up with, while the big money is simply taking some profits early this year to avoid the taxable event for last year. Basically, nothing on the economic front has changed, except for the fact the consumer has a much more favorable landscape now, jobs are improving and we're anticipated to finally achieve some reasonable GDP growth on a go-forward basis. All positives if you ask me." He's right. Our data regarding retail sales is just one example of how this weakness isn't based on economics - it's just being driven by the calendar. Monroe had a lot more to say about the seeming disconnect between the way things seem on the surface and the way things really are, but we don't have time or room to get into all of that today. Elite Opportunity members are getting the whole scoop though, and believe me when I tell it's strange times (like right now) for the market that can make or break your portfolio. I know I wouldn't want to be navigating the market in this environment without my Elite Opportunity subscription. If you're not feeling 100% confident and ready for wherever stocks could go from here, you need to become an EO member. John and his team have a way of making sense of the market for short-term traders as well as for long-term investors. Sign up today before things get any messier. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/