As far as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions go, that one (along with the commentary and outlook) was about as ambiguous as most of the recent ones. The only major change I saw was the removal of the "considerable time" language, which was replaced by "patient" in terms of how much longer the Fed is going to hold off on a rate hike. Everything else - and the economic outlook in particular - was relatively upbeat. We don't disagree, mind you. You'll get a better idea of why we agree in a moment. First, let's run-down today's market action and figure out what it means for you. Not Impressed This is going to be relatively short, because despite today's decidedly bullish action, I don't think we can assume the rally was anything more than a Fed-inspired dead-cat bounce. Maybe it'll turn into more tomorrow, but until we have a specific reason to think otherwise, I'm inclined to stick with my short-term bearish thesis from yesterday. Yes, the S&P 500 crawled back above its 50-day moving average line (purple) on Wednesday, which is a very crude indication of bullish momentum. I think it's interesting, however, how for the third day in a row the index tested the 2021 area as a ceiling and then peeled back. That's my new line in the sand, for those of you charting with me at home. I get how the sheer size of the gain today - a 2.03% romp - is inspiring, as is the sharp move lower from the VIX. It just all seems a little overdone to me. I recall back on October 8th (marked with a blue arrow on our chart) how we got a very strong gain at a point in time when the bulls desperately needed one, and it just ended up being a setup for a much sharper tumble. Granted, the subsequent tumble ended up making a major bottom just five days later, but what a scary five days. I'll also add while today's volume wasn't bad, it wasn't exactly a show-stopper compared to the recent bearish volume either. We continue to watch the NASDAQ Composite closely too, and I can't say I'm surprised the 4652 level is coming back into play, this time as a ceiling. The NASDAQ's high today was right at 4652. That's a big resistance line for the composite now. In fact, it's the only one I really care about at this time. As much as I'd love to proverbially whip out some piece of trading-analysis magic for you and predict where all of this is going based on something you've not seen yet, I'd be kidding you and myself if I didn't call this current situation exactly what it is... a coin toss. That's not the kind of indecision that makes for sizzling headlines, I know, but after nearly two decades in this business I can tell you with plenty of certainty that none of the usual talking heads on TV really knows how things are going to pan out through the end of the year. They like to think and act like they know, but trust me - everybody's guessing at this point. If you absolutely need my guess though, I'm still leaning bearishly even though it's the minority opinion right now. One more bearish day (whether or not it comes tomorrow) should be all we need to put those wheels into motion. The good news is, the likely bottom still isn't too far away. A move under the NASDAQ's 100-day moving average line at 4541 should still be what starts such a selloff. That's all the analysis we have time for today, but if you're needing something more detailed and actionable, John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity doles out a deeper look at the broad market every single day. He's the guru I suggest you go to when things get tricky like they are now. Learn more by going here, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ . The Economy Truly is in Decent Shape The lack of a rate hike comes as no surprise; that was never going to happen until sometime in mid-2015 anyway. But, with Russia on the brink of collapse, an overvalued U.S. dollar that's testing the water of even-higher highs, and withering inflation (see below), one would have expected a little more helpful perspective today from Janet Yellen and her cohorts. Anyway, there's been a ton of important economic data posted this week that's largely gone ignored, as most everyone including the media has been distracted by Russia and oil. Since all of this stuff matters, - and with most of it mattering more than the Fed's policies at this point - I'm going to give you the Q&D look at some of the information you might have missed this week. Working backwards... A couple of months ago, the prospect of deflation was something thrown into the discussion just to make the point that even though inflation was modest, the risk of negative inflation (deflation) was minimal. Now one has to wonder if that's where things are headed. As of November, the nation's annualized inflation rate is a mere 1.32%, down from October's 1.66% level. It's the lowest inflation pace we've seen since February, when it was on the way up. Yes, you can thank falling gasoline prices for the bulk of the recent dip in consumer costs, though I'm not quite as quick as some to remove energy prices from the mix. Gas - and food prices - are still based on supply and demand, and if consumers aren't demanding it relative to supply, there still has to be a reason. Even taking energy prices out of the calculation, however, consumer inflation is a modest 1.9%, and weakening. With energy AND food taken out of the picture, the inflation pace is still only 1.7%, though holding steady there. We firmly believe low inflation is better for the economy than high inflation, as long as we steer clear of true deflation. In other words, though we're concerned, we're not as worried about low inflation as most investors seem to be. On Tuesday we heard November's housing starts and building permits. They were just ok. Starts fell from a pace of 1.045 million to 1.028 million, and permits slumped from 1.092 million to 1.035 million. Both are still decent figures, and we're not sweating one month's modest pullback. As you can see on our chart though, it seems like the construction growth trend has flattened out a bit. For what it's worth, housing starts and building permits are only two of six major data points we keep tabs on to get a feel for the strength of the real estate market. Home prices and home sales are also important pieces of the puzzle, and we won't get the other four data nuggets until next week. So, stay tuned. Last but not least, the Federal Reserve reports on Monday that capacity utilization as well as industrial productivity were both up on Monday. While these two data sets tend to be glossed over by, well, everyone, we can't stress their importance enough. More than any other economic barometer, we feel these pieces of information are remarkably reliable as long-term market trend indicators. If they're pointed higher, so too is the market. If they're pointed lower, you can bet stocks are too, or soon will be. They don't prevent any of the short-term ebbs and flows all of us love to trade, but for the true buy-and-hold part of your portfolio, these two pieces of data are "it". With that as the backdrop, the industrial productivity index edged up from 105.3 in October to a new multi-year high of 106.7 for last month. Capacity utilization grew from 79.3% to 80.1% for November, which is also a multi-year high. The market may be all over the map in the near term, but I still have faith in the long-term uptrend because of this information. We know all the currency volatility and fears of deflation - and the Fed's inability to contain any of it - seems daunting right now. I'm telling you though, the economy is going to do what it's going to do not because of the Fed, but despite the Fed. The free market is more self-stabilizing than most give it credit for... even if things get a little squirrely from time to time. Based on what we see here, we have to remain bullish on the long-term market, having faith that the short-term stuff will shaken out sooner than later. The Federal Reserve seemed to agree - more or less - judging from its comments and non-comments in today's report. What You Missed If you're not cruising by the website on a daily basis, you're missing some great trading commentary, not to mention missing some actionable ideas. Here's the best of the best you may have missed today. What's the deal with Novogen Ltd (NVGN)? Yeah, the company posted some great news regarding its melanoma drug, but did it merit a triple in its value when the company just diluted existing shareholders with a big private placement?John Udovich gets down to business with it. James Brumley raised a great question about crude oil today, thinking we may have already seen the bottom for crude, and by extension have seen the bottom for most energy stocks. It's only a theory at this point, but one worth keeping in mind over the next few days. If you're looking for even more trading ideas, complete with exits and entries, these are the guys I turn to.