OK, now the market's just yankin' your chain.
Yes, within reach of what could have been a bullish catalytic move, stocks once again peeled back from the brink of bullishness at the least inopportune time. It's the third time in less than two months a rally effort petered out before it got a chance to get going. However...
While stocks clearly aren't back in a meaningful bullish mode yet, it's not like they're imploding right now either. The S&P 500 remains above the bulk of its key technical floors established by a combination of prior lows, moving average lines, and its lower band lines.
This is what they call being caught between a rock and a hard place.
And just to serve up a little perspective on how lame the market has been lately, today's close for the S&P 500 was basically where the index was trading in mid-November. Anybody who's gotten into the market within the past couple months expecting another major wave of bullishness has been disappointed.
Here's the really annoying part - it's not over yet. If anything, the boundaries of the trading range are firming up, and we're headed into a time of year not particularly known for significant movement.
That's the longer-term, bigger-picture outlook anyway. The short-term swing trades "in the meantime" are still dishing out nice gains to those who dare to seek them out, and to those who can spot the market's day-to-day turning points. And, as it just so happens, you've got access to one of the market's best short-term handicappers I've ever met.
I generally try not to divulge the Elite Opportunity's trading ideas, but at this point, it doesn't matter... the EO newsletter's analytical staff saw today's market weakness coming yesterday afternoon, explicitly recommending bearish trades like the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS), and Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (TZA) in Monday afternoon's newsletter. All three trades are already well up for Elite Opportunity members, and with the bearish ball rolling, I can see a lot more upside for those trades materializing as the indices start to hunt for the lower edges of the trading ranges we were talking about a moment ago. We'll look at those levels in detail below. For now, we just wanted to congratulate EO subscribers for getting off to such a nice start on their swing trade.
It's the perfect exclamation point to what we were telling you in yesterday's free end-of-day newsletter - that to get the most out of the market, you need to become an Elite Opportunity member. John Monroe and his crew can really thread the needle, so to speak, figuring out where all the trade-worthy twists and turns are. They did it again just yesterday.
Stop missing out on the small, short-term moves that could make you big bucks! Sign up for the EO service and start capitalizing on the near-term volatility. Anybody who's adhered to a pure buy and hold strategy since November hasn't made one penny, while those who are willing to actively trade during that time have had plenty of profit opportunities. Here's how to get more out of the market, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
The Bulls Are Getting Tired
We can't say we're shocked the market pulled back today. The last two rally-renewal efforts failed, and we already know stocks have a valuation problem. A sudden bearish turn was the odds-on favorite outcome in this particular scenario too.
On the flipside, it's not like any of the recent stumbles have really gone anywhere either.
Like we mentioned above, mostly the market is just range-bound, and until stocks can get out of that rut none of these short-term swings will matter. As I've been guessing for some time, however, the bigger near-term risk remains a significant pullback. I don't know that we'd say we're looking for a bear market. We are in need of a correction though.
Anyway, we're going to limit our look to a chart of the NASDAQ Composite today, but know the same basic ideas and outlooks apply similarly to the other indices.
Take a look below. Just a few points away from finally clearing a horizontal ceiling at 4811, the bears dug in and pushed the composite back below its 20-day and 50-day moving average lines. That's the bad news. The good news is, the floor around 4542 remains intact. That's where the NASDAQ hit its lowest low since November, and it's near where the lower 20-day Bollinger band will be soon... by the time it could be tested anyway.
You know the drill - the composite could continue bouncing around between 4542 and 4811 indefinitely. A break outside of that range, though, could spur a much better trend. A break above 4811 and a subsequent rally remains a possibility, but that's less likely than a break under 4542 and a subsequent bearish move, in our view. The fact that we just made a lower high while in the midst of this sideways trading range only underscores the expectation.
Again, a bunch of this doubt is rooted in the valuation problems we discussed in yesterday's newsletter. Interestingly, it was poor earnings results and outlooks that ended up up-ending the market today. No surprise there.
If you're a die-hard fan of the S&P 500, it's support and resistance levels are 1971 and 2064.
The next few days are going to be interesting to say the least.
From the Site
Last but not least, we've seen some great stuff posted at the site this week. We can't list all of the commentaries here, but we can show you some of the best ones. In no certain order...
It's actually from Monday, but it's still a valid look at a bigger-picture opportunity - James Brumley likes MannKind (MNKD), for all the right reasons.
Did any of you ride the marijuana stock craze? Here's one for you - John Udovich's look at all things marijuana. Think of it as a collection of the good, bad, and ugly results of 2014's leap forward for the marijuana industry.
Bryan Murphy believes ANADIGICS (ANAD) has kick-started a fairly significant rally. 'Nuff said.
It's time to see if the meteoric rise from JetBlue (JBLU) was justified. The airline reports last quarter's earnings on Thursday morning, and if you're one of our readers who acted on the trade several weeks ago when it was suggested as a trading idea, then you'll definitely want to take a peek at Peter Graham's earnings preview.