News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Two Sectors to Consider Even if the Stock Market Tanks
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

In yesterday's edition of the newsletter I made a point of explaining how the Elite Opportunity service wasn't just for short-term traders - it's also for long-term investors. Even that clarification, however, didn't do the EO newsletter justice in light of what happened this morning. What happened? Airline JetBlue (JBLU) reported last quarter's earnings this morning. They were great. It matters to you and I and all the Elite Opportunity members because the subsequent 8% jump from JBLU today has pushed the gain on the JBLU trade up to 66% since the EO's purchase of it back in mid-October. Nice call, John Monroe. It was also one of the Elite Opportunity's trading ideas we passed along to - gratis - back around the same time. (Though we usually don't dish out the EO's picks, every now and then we will just to make the point that Monroe and his team know how to find buried treasure.) I hope you acted on it at the time. If you did, you're up nicely too. Just so you know though, what you're missing out on if you're not a full Elite Opportunity member is all the trade-management in the meantime, and the exit instructions whenever that time comes. My bigger point is, while the EO service is great for short-term traders and long-term investors looking for perspective on the bigger picture, it's also a great source for stock picks. We could all use a 66% winner in our portfolio right now.... a 66% gain in less than four months, no less! So, I'll say it again - if you're not a subscriber to the Elite Opportunity newsletter, then you're not getting all you can get out of the market. Here's how to become a member, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Hot Sectors Before we get to the market-trading analysis portion of the newsletter I wanted to give you an update on one of the pet projects we've been playing with on the side... a bullish call on REITs. We actually made the stand back on December 2nd, suggesting the Dow Jones Office & Industrial REIT Index and its constituents were worth a closer look, and maybe even a buy. We added the broader Dow Jones Diversified REIT Index - which was effectively all REITs - to the bullish list back on January 7th. Well, we're pretty glad we did. The DJ Office and Industrial REIT Index has gained 9% since December 2nd, while the DJ Diversified REIT index has gained 3% since January 7th (and had been up as much as 4%) .... and still has some room to keep rising. I know that's not "let's go buy a Ferrari now" money. But, for less than two months' work during a time when the S&P 500 has actually lost ground, I'll take it, especially considering the bulk of the reason we wanted to take on a stake in REITs was to avoid the stock market's stagnation. I don't bring it up to gloat though. I bring it up because when I was looking at the Dow Jones Office & Industrial REIT Index chart today, it looked a little toppy. See what you think. The Dow Jones Diversified REIT Index doesn't look quite as overextended, but we can tell it's hit a headwind at the upper edge of a long-term trading range too. This isn't to say I don't like these groups anymore. It's not even to say you should be scaling out of any REITs you got into on our suggestion (though we're not saying it would bad idea either). We're just saying, if you didn't get in then, you probably don't want to get in now. Wait for a pullback and then wade in. With that being said, yes, we're still bullish on real estate, largely because we're not particularly bullish on stocks at this time. Timing is still everything. In any case, while I was checking in on how REITs were looking now, I went ahead and took a look at all the major industry groupings to see if there was any budding technical strength on other fronts. I came across two I feel are worth exploring, and maybe using as a basis for a stock pick.... aerospace, and homebuilding. I know the rhetoric surrounding the homebuilding sector right now isn't flattering. However, I trust what these stocks are telling us by what they're doing more than I trust what the headlines are saying about them. And, what these stocks are doing is consolidating, and testing the waters of a breakout. The Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) is now finding support at some key moving average lines, and if it can just clear the ceiling at 556 I can see a lot of pent-up buying pressure finally being unleashed. The Dow Jones Aerospace Index (DJUSAS) is also knocking on the door of a breakout after a long-term consolidation phase; the line in the sand is 941. I see something of a head-and-shoulders pattern (albeit a loose one) here. Whatever the context is, there should be some upside ahead. The only concern I had with aerospace stocks as a group was the dominance that Boeing (BA) has over everything else that makes up the Dow Jones Aerospace Index - it's just BA shares in a different wrapper. The more I poked around though, the clearer it became that many of the other names in this grouping were also picking up some steam. If I had to pick up a stock from this industry, I'd probably select one of those less-obvious constituents. OK, enough sector talk for today. Do what you will with these ideas. We've got to move on to some broad market stuff. Still Not Impressed We'll keep this short and sweet, as we've already gone a little long today. Besides, there's not actually a lot to say about the market here despite today's bounce. Honestly, I would have been a little surprised if the market didn't bounce a little bit after doing what it did this morning. We'll look at both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite today, just to drive home the point. Let's start with the S&P 500. It's on this chart we can see the S&P 500 brushed a previous floor at 1991 and basically kissed the lower 20-day Bollinger band early on Thursday. Both are reversal catalysts, and sure enough, the bulls pushed up and off of them once they met those lines. For the NASDAQ, the reversal line was the 100-day moving average line (gray), which has been a reversal catalyst before. There's no denying there are bullish aspects to these clues. Just as a reminder though, both indices have already made a lower high, and all of the rally efforts over the past couple of months are getting less and less traction each time. I'll also point out how not only are the indices getting comfortable below their short-term moving average lines, but those short-term moving average lines are now all sloped downward. It's a sign that at least the near-term undertow is bearish, even if we do get a couple bullish days here and there. Also, while it's a bit nuanced, the upper Bollinger bands are really falling fast now. Those lines are always resistance to some degree, but they're especially difficult to crawl back above when they're falling sharply. It's all still very much up in the air, but again, what I see here is a market that's playing with fire by dancing - repeatedly - with some major support levels. Today's bounce isn't enough to get excited about yet. In fact, I'm still in the pessimist camp. Shocking, I know. I'm pretty sure Standard & Poor's will be posting a Q4 earnings data update tonight, so we'll likely have a fresh look at the earnings trends in tomorrow's newsletter.