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Looks like my read on all the key clues from Tuesday was right. Not only did the bounce materialize, it materialized in spades. The market's major indices were up well over 1% today, wiping away a pretty big chunk of the losses taken over the past week and a half.

On the other hand, have you ever heard the phrase "too much of a good thing is still too much?" I fear that may apply to our present situation.

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You know the cliche scene from movies or cartoons where the character in question is sitting in front of a typewriter and filling up a wastebasket full of paper, each with an unsatisfactory start to whatever it was he/she was trying to write? That was me today.

It wasn't so much not liking what I wrote. It was the way the market meandered between gains and losses all day. Usually I can start the newsletter by mid-day because it's quite clear which side of the fence stocks are going to land on. Not today though. Today the whole thing was in question right down to the closing bell, and even then the environment is rife with indecision. I'm still glad I waited until the end of the session to begin this draft of the newsletter though. At least now we know.

The good news is, even with today's indecision we can get a pretty decent grip on what's next, near-term and long-term.

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Welcome back from the weekend, one and all. We hope you had a good one, though given today's selloff I know a bunch of you likely ended up wishing you'd just stayed in bed until Tuesday.

That's right. On the off-chance you didn't know, stocks got the new week started on a bearish foot, slipping a little further into the quicksand. As of Friday there was a still a chance the market could wiggle its way out of trouble. After today though, the odds of such a rebound dropped quite a bit. In fact, let's just start there today.... with a look at how the market went from bad to worse on Monday.

Long story made short, the S&P 500 sunk a little deeper into the quicksand today, with a near-term recovery looking increasingly out of reach. In retrospect, with that major support line (dashed) failing to hold up on Thursday, now that the bearish ball is rolling the sellers don't seem to even be thinking about looking back. Take a look.

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Welcome to the weekend, everybody, and for those of you who are horse racing fans it's going to be a good one. A Triple Crown title is on the table for American Pharaoh. Only 23 times has a horse even been in contention for the Triple Crown title since the three races all existed by 1875, and it's only been achieved eleven times since Sir Barton first did it back in 1919. In other words, the fact that American Pharaoh even has a shot at it is a pretty big deal.

Since our Derby picks and Preakness picks were pretty darn hot this year, we'll keep putting them out there for you and see if we can keep the streak alive.

Giving credit where it's due, I'm going to unashamedly poach the Belmont picks John Monroe gave to Elite Opportunity subscribers today. He said to look for American Pharaoh in the winner's circle, but to also expect big days from Mubtaahij and Materiality. If you want to up your odds a little bit (and shoot for a little more of a payback), add Frosted to the mix. To further improve your odds of winning something, you can play all those horses with a trifecta or a superfecta.

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Well folks, there you are. We've been expecting a decisive breakdown for the broad market, and we finally got it today. While we don't want bet the farm on a pullback just yet (this market's been too wishy-washy to assume anything lately), we have to concede this dip looks like the start of something significant.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 below isn't particularly tough to interpret. The long-standing support line (red, dashed) has been broken. The 50-day moving average line (purple) has been breached. And, the VIX has made a higher high, cementing a new uptrend into place.