Well folks, there you are. We've been expecting a decisive breakdown for the broad market, and we finally got it today. While we don't want bet the farm on a pullback just yet (this market's been too wishy-washy to assume anything lately), we have to concede this dip looks like the start of something significant. The daily chart of the S&P 500 below isn't particularly tough to interpret. The long-standing support line (red, dashed) has been broken. The 50-day moving average line (purple) has been breached. And, the VIX has made a higher high, cementing a new uptrend into place. Not that it tells us anything new, but zooming out to a weekly version of the S&P 500 underscores some of the reasons we have to be concerned with the daily chart. Namely, the bottom edge of the long-term support channel that's been guiding the index higher has been threatened, if not broken. The VIX's new uptrend - and some clarity on how far it could move now that it's pushing off the lower edge of its trading range - is also made quite clear here. So now what? Like we explained, we're not quite ready yet to blindly assume the worst, but this looks like the beginning of a pullback. Ergo, we need to start thinking about plausible downside targets. Better to have them and not need then them not have them and need them. And trust me when I say you don't to be making major decisions in the heat of a meltdown. Panic and fear can cause you to overlook important details, which can ultimately lead you into a trading mistake. We'll go ahead and have this discussion now so you have a framework already in place if-and-when the time comes. One of my favorite tools to use when looking for the market's most likely pivot points is the same tool John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity frequently utilizes.... Fibonacci lines. These levels offer meaningful floors and ceilings when there's no other context - like prior peaks or lows - in place. So where are the S&P 500's most likely floors now based on Fibonacci lines? It depends. If we wanted to think REALLY bigger-picture, we could argue the 1748 level, or a 38.2% retracement of the September-2011-through-May-2015 rally, is a realistic floor. That seems insane when you look at the possibility on the chart below, but honestly, that would only be an 18% correction. Don't get me wrong - that would be a huge corrective move. But, it wouldn't be unusual. That used to be fairly normal (although on the larger end of normal) for a correction. The Fed's desire to keep stocks moving higher all the time no matter what, though, has spoiled us since 2011 by staving off sizeable - even if healthy - setbacks. To the extent it matters, at a value of 1748 by the time the index could get there, the S&P 500's trailing P/E would still be 15.8, and the forward-looking P/E would still be 14.0. Those valuations are actually closer to the norm. With all of that being said, 1748 is probably a long shot. A more realistic number would be 2013 or 1934. Those are the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements (respectively) of the span between October's low and last month's high. October's low was not only meaningful in its own right, but that 1817 area was kind of a big floor in early 2014. So, we can use that as a starting point now with a high degree of confidence. The only problem I see with using 2013 as a potential downside target is that it would only mean a 5.7% correction from the recent peak. That's not enough to really hit the market's "reset" button, you know? The 1934 level represents a 9.4% pullback from last month's high, which would be a much more meaningful - though not terrifying - corrective move. Like I said, setting these downside targets may all be for naught by the beginning of next week. I've just got a funny feeling, though, today's dip is a red flag. Even if stocks rebound a bit on Friday, we're still not out of the woods. And if instead the bears dig in tomorrow and widen the distance between the S&P 500 and its now-former floor, yikes. From the Site While there's no denying the market as a whole got a whole lot more interesting today - and is the thing traders are going to be watching most closely in the near future - that doesn't mean there aren't stock-specific things going on worth a close look. As usual, the site's regular contributors found today's hardest-hitting company news to dissect, or even create. Here's a quick look at the top three commentaries, in no particular order: In the grand scheme of things, Gevo (GEVO) is still a fringe alternative-energy name. That may be starting to change though, and that's a good thing for patient investors who have stuck with it. Long story made short, Gevo can make jet fuel without the use of petroleum. James Brumley has the details on how this is affecting the stock for the better. Earnings season isn't quite over yet. Small cap resort name Vail Resorts (MTN) will post last quarter's numbers on Monday. If you want to know what to expect or how Vail Resorts stacks up against its peers, Peter Graham serves up a reality check today. Last but not least, Bryan Murphy painted a real picture about what's been pushing MannKind (MNKD) sharply higher (seemingly out of nowhere) lately. Although it's something of an artificial rally, it was built to last and there's still fuel in the tank. Here's the explanation of why. That's all for now, but with everything changing on Thursday, now's not the time to mentally check out. We'll be publishing again tomorrow, and probably making a final decision on whether or not Thursday's meltdown was just one day of bad luck or the beginning of longer-lasting trouble. So, stick around.