Welcome to the weekend, everybody, and for those of you who are horse racing fans it's going to be a good one. A Triple Crown title is on the table for American Pharaoh. Only 23 times has a horse even been in contention for the Triple Crown title since the three races all existed by 1875, and it's only been achieved eleven times since Sir Barton first did it back in 1919. In other words, the fact that American Pharaoh even has a shot at it is a pretty big deal. Since our Derby picks and Preakness picks were pretty darn hot this year, we'll keep putting them out there for you and see if we can keep the streak alive. Giving credit where it's due, I'm going to unashamedly poach the Belmont picks John Monroe gave to Elite Opportunity subscribers today. He said to look for American Pharaoh in the winner's circle, but to also expect big days from Mubtaahij and Materiality. If you want to up your odds a little bit (and shoot for a little more of a payback), add Frosted to the mix. To further improve your odds of winning something, you can play all those horses with a trifecta or a superfecta. The only thing I'll add is a reminder that Tale of Verve - one of the unrespected names I took a chance on for the Preakness - ended up second in that race three weeks ago, shocking a lot of racing fans. Then again, the Preakness was a mudbath, and maybe Tale of Verve just liked the slop. I'm just saying.... Enough about horses. Let's talk about the market. Actually, let's first talk about the economic conditions that are driving the market. Today, last month's unemployment numbers were in the driver's seat. Good job numbers (mostly) worked against the market, as measurable job growth makes it even easier for the Fed to justify a rate hike sooner than later. Employment Takes Another Step Forward You likely already heard the U.S. added 280,000 jobs last month. You also likely know the unemployment rate edged just a bit higher, from 5.4% to 5.5%. How do you increase job growth from 165,000 in April to 280,000 this time around and still see a rise in unemployment? Because a whole lot of people were added to the labor pool.... more than 280,000. We'll show you a chart of all the relevant data below, but first, a little perspective. Yes, 280,000 new payrolls is a healthy number, but not a game-changer. We saw 423,000 new jobs in November, and 329,000 in December. Conversely, we saw only 119,000 new jobs in March. More than anything, May's big number mostly offset April's weak number, with the average of the two months only being 222,000. That's not bad, but not quite celebration-worthy. Of course, I can afford to be a bit of a pessimist because I actually went to the trouble of finding the rest of the relevant numbers. In other words, whatever. One good month doesn't make a trend. It's not like the heat's been turned up here. Here's the job-growth trend along with the unemployment rate trend. The next chart will explain how you can get net job growth and still get a higher unemployment rate. It's mostly a matter of math. The number of people who are employed grew from 148.523 million to 148.795 million... a 272,000 increase. The number of people who are now technically in the labor pool (with or without jobs) grew from 157.072 million to 157.469 million... a 397,000 increase. Since the unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the total number of officially unemployed people by the size of the labor pool, the fact that the total number of officially unemployed people grew 125,000 last month - in addition to the 397,000 increase in that calculation's divisor - the unemployment rate was destined to tick higher. I still say the employment picture is getting better, but it's not getting nearly as healthy as it's been getting credit for - there just wasn't a full complement of people bothering to look for a job. This is starting to change, which will actually expose the fact that there still aren't enough meaningful jobs to go around. Back on the Fence Before getting into the market discussion, I just want to let you know SPYR (SPYR) - one of our featured stocks right now - has done it again. The game publisher's second title, Plucky Rush, has been an even bigger/faster hit at the Apple app store than it was at Google Play, and it's been an absolute rock start at Google Play. I'm going to let James Brumley serve up the full explanation. We just wanted to make sure you saw the news regarding this name. SPYR is growing much faster than I think any of us ever expected. Anyway, talk about a mixed message! Yes, the S&P 500 put some distance between it and the key floor it broke under yesterday. Even though it was a mere 0.14% slide, the trend is pointed in the wrong direction. That's bearish. The problem is, that's the only real bearish evidence we've got for today. Take a look at the Russell 2000's chart from Friday. Not only is it still in an uptrend, it was firmly up today... to the tune of 0.78%. If traders were feeling concerned about a possible pullback, riskier small caps would be the names they'd be shedding first and foremost. So what's the deal? Is it possible for small caps to keep rising and for large caps to keep falling? Probably not, though in this particular case I can't say I'm completely shocked about the disparity. Back on February 23rd we explicitly told you this year was apt to be one marked by leadership from small caps. Still, things don't quite line up here. Here's my take on the matter - as drastic as yesterday's breakdown from the S&P 500 was, we don't really have any other evidence that stocks have moved into breakdown mode. The Russell 2000 is still going strong, and the NASDAQ Composite (not shown today), is still holding above its most important support lines. Maybe that will let you rest a little easier over the weekend. Just for the record, I still feel the worst is in store. That is, I still foresee a summertime correction looming, and I still don't see how the market is going to justify higher valuations. It's just that I don't see any convincing evidence the bears have dealt a death blow yet. We'll pick it up again on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend.