You know the cliche scene from movies or cartoons where the character in question is sitting in front of a typewriter and filling up a wastebasket full of paper, each with an unsatisfactory start to whatever it was he/she was trying to write? That was me today. It wasn't so much not liking what I wrote. It was the way the market meandered between gains and losses all day. Usually I can start the newsletter by mid-day because it's quite clear which side of the fence stocks are going to land on. Not today though. Today the whole thing was in question right down to the closing bell, and even then the environment is rife with indecision. I'm still glad I waited until the end of the session to begin this draft of the newsletter though. At least now we know. The good news is, even with today's indecision we can get a pretty decent grip on what's next, near-term and long-term. In the near-term (as in just the next few days) I've got a feeling we're going to see the bulls push back against the bearish move we've seen unfurl since May 22nd. The S&P 500 is off about 2.4% from that peak, which has been about as much ground as the bulls have been willing to give up lately before stepping up to the plate again. It's not just a pattern or the size of the pullback that's got me thinking bullishly for the next handful of days though. Some of you who are candlestick charting aficionados will recognize today 's bar for the S&P 500 is almost a perfect doji pattern. This is a big deal, as dojis tend to materialize at pivot points. Without getting too much into the technical details, a doji is simply a day's bar where the open and close are basically the same level. The ideal doji is one where the open and the close are right at the midpoint of the day's high-to-low range. For more on the mechanics, stockcharts.com has a great primer right here. For us, suffice it to say a doji pattern often indicates the point where the environment switches from a net-selling environment to a net-buying one, or vice versa. Today's doji would clearly indicate all the would-be sellers have finally been flushed out and the buyers are taking over. With that in mind, take a look at today's daily chart of the S&P 500. The NASDAQ Composite is also due for a bounce after bumping into its lower Bollinger band line today. And on both charts we can see the index's respective volatility index made a firm downward move today. I could be wrong. It's entirely possible Tuesday was just a breather for the bears, who are going to rip back into stocks again beginning on Wednesday. Based on the way we've seen the market behave over the past few months though, I'm pretty confident the bulls are going to put up something of a fight, even if only to give the bears a chance to prove they're taking charge for a longer while. Yes, that's right - I'm still a bigger-picture bear, looking for an overdue correction to finally materialize now that summer is here. I've mentioned to you before how I try to go easy on the science and mechanics here in the newsletter and instead just describe what the details mean when they're relevant. I was a little inspired today, though, when I stumbled across something I'm going to guess at least a few of you saw. What's that? A commentary from Bloomberg's Callie Bost explaining how the S&P 500's longer-term rally was already "thinning" even before last week's and Monday's meltdown. Specifically, Bost pointed out how the number of S&P 500 stocks that were still above their critical 200-day moving average line recently broke below the 60% threshold, and that number was shrinking daily. It's a key figure to watch, as it's a glimpse into the market's true health as measured by the participation in its strength or weakness. The 200-day moving average line is a major one for all stocks, and watched by most traders. There's just one problem I have with Bost's thoughts - I think her data may have already been a little dated by the time it was posted and her chart was made. My data, as supplied by TradeStation, says only 53% of the S&P 500's stocks (green) are still above their 200-day average, while 47% (red) are now below their 200-day moving average level. And, those trends are on a bearish intercept course. As for what this means to me and you, in the near-term it says the market isn't as healthy as it may seem (and it doesn't exactly seem healthy to begin with). In the bigger picture though, this is just another reason to think rallies are going to become tougher and tougher to come by, while pullbacks are going to become easier and easier to make. There's just not a lot of bullish zeal or "umph" out there in the market's ether right now. On a more philosophical note, the percentage of stocks above or below their 200-day line is just another way to measure the participation in a rally or a meltdown. I'm still a fan of the way I devised for you guys, which is just a comparison of the NYSE's up and down volume and a comparison of the NYSE's advancers and decliners. But, whatever. And speaking of up/down volume and advancers/decliners... Here's that updated chart. It doesn't come as a complete surprise the tide on this chart started to turn for the worst around mid-May, which is when the percent-above/percent-below the 200-day moving average line chart also started to take a turn for the worst. Also notice that even with today's modest gain, the overall breadth and depth for the NYSE's stocks was still net-bearish. The point is, while stocks may be due for a bit of a bounce here the longer-term undertow is still leaning bearishly, which should bring a pretty quick end to any bullish effort. My guess is the S&P 500 will start to hit a headwind no higher than 2105, where the 20-day and 50-day moving average line will soon converge. Once there, I'd be willing to bet the bigger and better supported downtrend takes over again. All the same, this still isn't the beginning of a bear market, nor a recession. It's just a correction. Keep it in perspective. On that note.... Not that the market cares what any of us "want", but for those of you praying for a gentle, slow decline, I want to pass along the thought-nugget John Monroe gave to Elite Opportunity members in today's EO newsletter: "I've always said, if the markets are going to selloff, let's have them do it quickly. Get it done and get it over with quickly so the pain doesn't last too long. Even if you're short the major indices and making some excellent money right now, you'd still probably love to see these markets achieve these levels as soon as possible, for the simple reason you make money faster." He's exactly right. A nice, hard, capitulatory landing would actually do us a lot more good than a gradual soft landing. We'll have to discuss the reasons why another time though.