Stocks Are Hangin' by a Thread

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Good Tuesday afternoon, one and all... or good Wednesday morning, depending on when you open your e-mails. Regardless of when you read your copy of the SCN newsletter though, you likely already know stocks haven't gotten 2016 off to a great start. The bounce potential built into Monday's steep selloff barely materialized during Tuesday's trading. In fact, we're still on the verge of dangerous territory, and still on the underside of most of the major lines in the sand.


We'll update our market charts below (as always), but there's another chart I want to show you first.


PharmaCyte Breaks Out

Oil Prices in U.S. Are Still Facing a Major Headwind. Here's Why.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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When the best thing you can say about stocks on the first day of the new trading year is "the pullback was so steep it set up a dead-cat bounce," then you know you're starting the year out on a pretty lousy foot.


Well, bad news - today's pullback was so steep it set up a likely dead-cat bounce for later this week.

What Does January Hold in Store for the Market? These Charts Answer the Question.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Wanna hear something crazy? The S&P 500 basically ended 2015 where it ended 2014. Oh, there was plenty of volatility this past year. The market was up as much as 3.7% and down as much as 9.3% at different points throughout the year. When all was said and done though, none of it mattered.


And no, we can't entirely blame the implosion of oil prices for the stagnation. It certainly didn't help, but we saw earnings growth from most other sectors, offsetting the losses booked by the energy sector's stocks. Besides, cheap gasoline arguably has a simulative effect -- people have more money to spend on other things.

2016 Growth Projections, by Sector

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome back from the long weekend, folks. We hope everybody had a nice time.


As we were worried about after Thursday's intraday tapering, the bulls were MIA to start this new week off. With the Santa Claus rally already fizzling in this last week of trading for 2015, I doubt any would-be buyers are now going to find the wherewithal to be strong buyers here. It's usually a slow week anyway, and with no more proven momentum, the next three trading days (the market's closed on Friday for New Year's) are likely to prove especially slow.


Today's session got a little bit scary shortly after the open, with the S&P 500 as low as -0.8% at one point. By the time the closing bell rang though, the index was well above its lows, and ended the day just down 0.22%. That intraday bounce, however, merely yanked the S&P 500 right back to an entanglement of moving averages that's been in play for several days.

Why More Interest Rate Hikes Just Won't Matter

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Happy Tuesday, everybody. Yep, just as I suspected, the closer we get to the three-day holiday weekend, the more lethargic things get for the market. Today's session was notably sleepy, and once again on shrinking volume.


And yet, we've still got plenty to talk about.


Just so there's no misunderstanding, while stocks themselves may be quieting down, not every other category of assets is doing the same. Bonds, currencies, and commodities are all in motion, and though I doubt the movement of commodities and bonds will have much impact on stocks this week, don't think for a minute each of these types of assets don't eventually impact another. That's why we're going to look at these movers today, with a particular focus on the U.S. dollar.

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