Happy Tuesday, everybody. Yep, just as I suspected, the closer we get to the three-day holiday weekend, the more lethargic things get for the market. Today's session was notably sleepy, and once again on shrinking volume. And yet, we've still got plenty to talk about. Just so there's no misunderstanding, while stocks themselves may be quieting down, not every other category of assets is doing the same. Bonds, currencies, and commodities are all in motion, and though I doubt the movement of commodities and bonds will have much impact on stocks this week, don't think for a minute each of these types of assets don't eventually impact another. That's why we're going to look at these movers today, with a particular focus on the U.S. dollar. It's Already Priced In In a normal trading environment, rising interest rates for a particular country generally means that country's currency increases in value (since that country's higher bond payouts increase demand for that country's bonds, which can only be purchased in that country's currency... meaning a net increase in demand for that currency). The challenging aspect of the theorem, however, is the term "normal trading environment." There is no normal trading environment anymore. The new "normal" is lot of speculation from people and groups that may or may not be speculating wisely. With that in mind, I can't help but wonder if -- with the Fed has telegraphing its plans to raise interest rates for so long this year and last year -- that when Janet Yellen finally pulled the trigger last week, the effect of a rising Fed Funds rate was already fully priced into... well, everything. Or, maybe I should just come out and say it; my theory is that traders have already priced in the fallout from the introduction of a rising Fed Funds rate. It's not just an idea I pulled out of a hat either. There are a couple of very good reasons I suspect the market largely shrugged off the first rate hike in almost a decade last week. One of those reasons is the fact that long-term interest rates have yet to budge since last Wednesday's news. The whole point of raising short-term interest rates is to push longer-term rates upward, but the market's real-world long-term borrowing rates are still where they were a week ago, a month ago, and almost a year ago. In other words, the market basically said "so what?" to the Fed Funds rate hike, even if the media didn't. The other reason I've got a feeling there's not going to be any of the intended ripple effect of higher interest rates in the foreseeable future is that the U.S. Dollar Index isn't moving higher even though the Fed made it clear it plans to continually raise rates through 2017. In fact, the U.S. dollar has fallen for the past three trading days, and is also back to where it was before Wednesday's news was unveiled. Theoretically it should be moving higher, but it still appears it's looking for a way to finally break down. It all starts to make a lot more sense when we zoom out to a longer-term weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, which we've done for you below. Are you curious as to why the U.S. Dollar Index started a meteoric rise in July of last year? Some would chalk it up to currency volatility overseas, and to be fair, that was a contributing factor. The bulk of the 20% advance to new multi-year highs beginning in the middle of 2014, however, can mostly be linked to the point in time when we as a nation (and the Fed and Janet Yellen to a modest extent at the time) started talking about a rising Fed Funds Rate in "when" terms rather than "if" terms. It didn't officially happen until this month, but mentally it happened a year and a half ago. In fact, I'd be willing to say almost all of the impending interest rate hikes planned though 2017 are already reflected in the value of the U.S. dollar. As for what it means to you, I think this may well mean a better environment for commodities priced in U.S. dollars. Namely, the dollar's inability or lack of need to rise any further should at least start providing some semblance of support for gold and oil. I'm not saying gold and oil have already hit bottom and are on the road to recovery. I am saying, however, this helps, and may fuel some short-term trading opportunities for both commodities in the near future. Speaking of trading opportunities... I can't say which or how, but John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity newsletter issued a trading recommendation for one of the aforementioned assets. He's got a firm grip on the underlying dynamics too. I'm sure glad EO members have something worth trading at this time, because stocks certainly aren't serving up anything worth acting on right now. You'd be well advised to act on John's suggestions, too. Despite the broad market's current lethargy, his recent short-term picks of ORBCOMM (ORBC), Nxstage Medical (NXTM), and Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) are now up 26%, 9%, and 22%, respectively. ORBC was up 10% today alone. Point being, John knows how to pick 'em, whether you're talking about commodities or stocks. Here's how you can benefit from his brain. Or, just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Coasting For what it's worth, here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. It was up, clearing the 100-day moving average line (gray) that was a problem yesterday. Like we mentioned yesterday, however, the bigger trend is still a slightly bearish one. The real test will be what happens when and if the S&P 500 reaches 2060, where three of the market's most important moving average lines are converging. And, given the current bullish pace - a Santa Claus rally, right on cue - we'll probably be testing that ceiling by the end of this shortened trading week. Timing is quickly becoming a real headache for the truly unbiased technical analyst. The bigger momentum is pointing in a bearish direction, but the rest of this week, all of next week, and the early part of the week after that are regarded as bullish times of the year. Traders may well make it happen just because the calendar says they should. We just won't know until the S&P 500 tests the 2060 area, and even then it could take a couple of days to figure it all out.