Wanna hear something crazy? The S&P 500 basically ended 2015 where it ended 2014. Oh, there was plenty of volatility this past year. The market was up as much as 3.7% and down as much as 9.3% at different points throughout the year. When all was said and done though, none of it mattered. And no, we can't entirely blame the implosion of oil prices for the stagnation. It certainly didn't help, but we saw earnings growth from most other sectors, offsetting the losses booked by the energy sector's stocks. Besides, cheap gasoline arguably has a simulative effect -- people have more money to spend on other things. Sure, if the analysts are right the S&P 500 will see 2015's net income fall 5.5%. In that light we should arguably be grateful the market managed to hold its ground. I still contend, however, the market's biggest impasse remains its frothy valuation. That's scary, because it means earnings could actually improve in 2016 while the market remains stagnant again... bringing P/E ratios down to more palatable levels. That's a discussion we'll have to have another time though. It's also a discussion of market dynamics that are always in flux, so we'll have to have the discussion over and over again. In the meantime - as in today - we need to talk about the market as it stands right now. Above all else, take today's and this week's market action with a grain of salt. This is an odd week for stocks. A lot of professionals are MIA, while a lot of amateurs are more active than usual because they're off work. The hints dropped this week aren't necessarily a majority opinion. On the flipside, where we ended this week is where we'll have to start the first week of the new year, and the recent market action has helped establish the market's floor and ceilings. Here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. We're back under a couple of key moving average lines thanks to Thursday's lull. We're also now below the 20-day moving average. You can also see the index is squarely in the middle of a shrinking - and slightly bearish - trading range framed by Bollinger bands as well as a pair of (increasingly less meaningful) straight-line guideposts. We'll just have to wait and see where it all goes. Anyway, as I was really taking a close year-end look at , well, everything today, I noticed something I hadn't yet noticed on the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Take a look. We can't get around the reality that we're in the midst of a bigger trend of lower highs and lower lows. We also can't sidestep the fact that the 200-day moving average line (green) has been sloped in a downward direction for a few weeks now. The weekly chart of the NASDAQ tells the same story - the index is pushing its way into the tip of converging support and resistance lines, but the floor is still intact. And it's a fairly strong floor. There are still a few ways the market could pull its fat out of the fire. In fact, the market isn't even in the fire yet - the floors are still intact. For the NASDAQ the floor is all around 4970. If you go back up to the daily chart of the S&P 500 you'll see the index has strong support waiting for it between 2000 and 2020. Until those floors are broken, the bulls won't be past the point of no return. The bulls are facing an increasingly tougher battle though. With all of that being said, I started thinking about our current situation, and the calendar, and the so-called January effect for the market. So, just for kicks I decided to dig up the performance of the market for the past few Januarys. They speak for themselves. In most cases we saw the usual year-end bullishness, but January was.... well, just see for yourself. Now, I'm not one for trading based on history or the calendar, but it seems like - more often than not - a good December sets up a bad January, and a tepid December sets up a bullish January. With that as the backdrop, here's the S&P 500 as of today, with a blank space left for January. You fill in the blank. If you just can't fill in the blank on your own, then it's probably a good sign you need to subscribe to the Elite Opportunity newsletter; John Monroe is really good at filling in the market's blanks. Here's how to become an EO member, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Happy New Year! Last but not least, we'd like to thank you all for another great year. We hope you've enjoyed reading the newsletter as much as we've enjoyed writing it, and we look forward to more of the same for many years to come. In the meantime, we hope all of you have a great - and safe - New Year's celebration. We'll be back in the saddle on the first trading day of 2016.