Good Tuesday afternoon, one and all... or good Wednesday morning, depending on when you open your e-mails. Regardless of when you read your copy of the SCN newsletter though, you likely already know stocks haven't gotten 2016 off to a great start. The bounce potential built into Monday's steep selloff barely materialized during Tuesday's trading. In fact, we're still on the verge of dangerous territory, and still on the underside of most of the major lines in the sand.
We'll update our market charts below (as always), but there's another chart I want to show you first.
PharmaCyte Breaks Out
Remember PharmaCyte Biotech (PMCB). This is the company -- and Featured Stock -- working on a biotechnology platform that can implant living cells into a patient without the worry of rejection or the patient's own immune system attacking them. The so-called Cell-in-a-Box technology is being developed as a treatment for diabetes and pancreatic cancer, though the possible applications of the biotechnology are unlimited.
In any case, those of you who own or who've been watching PMCB will likely know the stock got hit pretty hard on Thursday. The question is, have you seen what's happened to PharmaCyte shares in the meantime?
The nearby chart tells the tale. As James Brumley suggested would be the case yesterday, that high-volume, uncharacteristically steep selling looks like a capitulation - a final flushout of sorts. The bulls came roaring back en masse on Monday, and gave a repeat performance on Tuesday. As the chart shows, Tuesday's move pushed PMCB shares above the falling resistance line that's been nagging the stock for weeks.
Some are suggesting Monday morning's press release from PharmaCyte Biotech is the reason, as it lays out the big 2016 milestones the company is planning on reaching. Honestly though, I think this sharp reversal was coming no matter what. This story is a very compelling one. The stock just needed to a chance to get a little breathing room. Look what happened when that window of opportunity opened.
Yields Are Revving Up For a Move
It's been a while since we looked at it, mainly because there's been nothing interesting to note. But, it's worth looking at now because I've got a feeling something big is about to change.
I'm talking about interest rates. Amazingly enough, they've barely budged despite the Fed's decision last month to not only raise the Fed funds rate but also to tell the market it thought more rate hikes were in the cards this year and next year. The long-term bond yield's failure to move higher following the news , however, says traders think long-term rates are as high as they're going to be anytime in the foreseeable future. Take a look.
The thing is, based on what I see on this chart I can't help but thing all of the recent tests of a long-term support line for yields as a sign that interest rates are poised to springboard... soon. They just need a catalyst.
We'll keep an eye on these charts for you. We just wanted to plant a seed today.
Stocks Still Hanging by a Thread
Yes, most of the market finished the day up on Tuesday, but just barely. Worse, though the S&P 500's lower Bollinger band is holding up as a floor, a former resistance line as well as the 100-day moving average line around 2110 both held the rally back today.
Basically, we're trapped in the middle here, above one key support level but below what's quickly becoming a formidable ceiling. The smart thing to do at this time is simply sit tight and let the market tip its hand first.
I'll Take Monroe Over Ackman Any Day of the Week
I don't know if you saw it or not, but activist investor Bill Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square, lost 20% of its value in 2015.
You know him, even if you can't remember why. Bill Ackman is the guy who's been supporting Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), leading a couple of acquisition efforts, and he's the same guy who's been working hard to convince anybody who will listen that Herbalife (HLF) is a scam. More importantly, Pershing Square is a shareholder of VRX and has shorted HLF. Both traders have gone very, very badly this year, sending the fund's value quite a bit lower.
I'll be blunt. Had it been anyone but Ackman, I probably wouldn't have cared. He's been habitually vocal about his opinion on both stocks, though, preaching as if his thoughts were infallible. In 2015 anyway, he was flat out wrong. The numbers verify it.
To be fair, anyone can have a bad year. For someone who's supposed to be one of the best and brightest though, I'm not so sure a 20% loss in a flat market environment is acceptable. Fortunately I don't have to worry about that too much, as I have a subscription to the Elite Opportunity newsletter, which has done far better for me than any hedge fund I'd be interested in.
I think I've mentioned this before, but if not, the EO newsletter is actually a combination of two portfolios. One of them is a long-term portfolio, with holding periods of months if not years. The other is a short-term swing trading portfolio, which I love, because John Monroe is better than anyone else I've ever met when it comes to catching the market's ebbs and flows.
The proof? Of all 63 swing trades closed out in 2015, the average gain was 9%. He's still got a few more swing trades entered in 2015 that are still open, but just eye-balling them, I think you'd roughly get the same average gain.
As for what it means to you, sure, a 9% gain one time isn't game-changing. A 9% gain 63 times in a year, however... well, you do the math.
Eat your heart out Bill Ackman.
And here's the crazy part - as well as John Monroe's done with the short-term swing trades, I'm, still expecting a bigger net benefit from his long-term picks.
It's still not too late to make 2016 the year you start doing something different, and better, for your portfolio, and you don't need to tie up your money with Bill Ackman or any other hedge funds to do so, taking a chance on another year like 2015 when you do. John Monroe's Elite Opportunity newsletter is the most potent source of great trading ideas I can find anywhere. Here's how to get it.