A Major Red Flag Started to Wave on Tuesday, Despite the Modest Pullback

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Looks like fireworks weren't in the cards on the last trading day of the third quarter. I'm a little surprised, to tell the truth, though I'm not blown away. Stocks have been indecisive for quite a while, so it's not like anybody was highly motivated to get in or out today. It seems like everybody still has a wait and see attitude.


Then again, sometimes deciding to do nothing can be a very prudent choice.

On the Fence, In a Rut, Stuck in the Middle - It's Annoying by Any Name

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome back to the trading week, fellow traders, though today's weakness certainly wasn't how the bulls wanted to follow through on Friday's bounce effort. The fragile rebound really needed to get a convincing start this week to get - and keep - all the would-be buyers interested again. The market's inability to break through key ceilings today bodes poorly for the near future. Yet....


If everything (including our commentary) all seems a little wishy washy of late, you're not crazy. That's been the environment lately. The S&P 500 is right back where it was in late July, and it's not like it's been much higher or much lower between then and now. You know what though? If that's the environment we're in, then that's the environment we're in. It's better reserve your trading for true opportunities than force trades when there's not actually an opportunity at hand... kind of like now.

We're Pulling the Plug on Another Pick. Plus, Lightning Strikes Twice.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome to the weekend, everybody. And, welcome to Janus, Bill Gross. Talk about the end of an era! On the off chance you haven't heard, PIMCO founder and CIO Bill Gross has left the asset management firm for competitor Janus Funds. Considering Bill Gross and PIMCO were pretty much synonymous, this is quite a shake-up with the financial world. It doesn't really change anything about the market's future. It's just a jaw-dropping move. Crazy.


Anyway, about the market...

Did the Stock-Selling Avalanche Just Begin?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Ouch. Well, for the first time in a long time we can actually say the market suffered some damage it may not be able to simply shrug off. This isn't to say stocks are going to make a beeline to what will be a major, capitulatory bottom. In fact, I'd be willing to bet we're going to see a few more bullish thrusts in the days ahead. Overall, however, it looks like the bearish ball is now rolling and there's little that can be done to stop it anytime soon.


We'll show you exactly what KO'd the market in a moment. The first thing we have to make sure we get out of the way after today is shedding some of what little market exposure we have. So, here goes - sell your Columbia Banking Systems (COLB) position.

Despite the News, Real Estate Isn't red Hot. Neither Are Stocks.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Pretty much as we all could have expected, the market escaped a meltdown today and instead pushed off its key floors... rather than breaking under them. The indices have been stuck in a narrow range for weeks now, and nothing changed on Wednesday.


It's good news for you, however, as I'm not going to launch a diatribe on where stocks have been and where they're going. If you've been reading the newsletter even just occasionally for the past couple of weeks, then you already know where the floors and ceilings are. Just to add a little color to the current tug-of-war, however, I do want to show you a chart of the S&P 500 and make a quick point about it below.

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