Looks like fireworks weren't in the cards on the last trading day of the third quarter. I'm a little surprised, to tell the truth, though I'm not blown away. Stocks have been indecisive for quite a while, so it's not like anybody was highly motivated to get in or out today. It seems like everybody still has a wait and see attitude. Then again, sometimes deciding to do nothing can be a very prudent choice. Honestly, we don't have a lot of new marketwide perspective for you today, so this isn't going to take long. In fact, we'll go ahead and give you our conclusion up front and say the market's even more quagmired now than it was on Monday. There is one red flag waving now, however, that wasn't waving before today. First things first. When all was said and done, the S&P 500 closed about a quarter of a percent lower today, ending the session at 1972.29. That's back below the pivotal 50-day moving average line, but still above the major floor at 1966. Technically speaking, the bears are still in control. It's not as if the bears are actually making any meaningful progress, though. Until the support at 1966 cracks, there's nothing for the bears to trade. Even then, the rising 100-day moving average line (gray) currently at 1958 is likely to offer some support. You'll also see the VIX is back on the rise. But, in the same sense the S&P 500 hasn't broken under a major technical line at 1966, the VIX hasn't yet breached its ceiling at 17.2. Until both of those things happen, there's still a smidgen of hope for stocks. Now, although I already showed you the chart I'm about to show you, I think it's worth repeating our discussion of it since today's action made it a lot more relevant. The chart is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 with a weekly chart of the VIX to go along with it. You may recall there was a key rising support line for the S&P 500 that extends all the way back to 2012. We also saw in this timeframe that the 100-day moving average line has been a major reversal point for the S&P 500 for quite a while. And, it's on this chart it became clear the VIX has a big-time ceiling at 17.6 just waiting to be hurdled. All those lines are still plotted on our chart below, but more important, all those lines are a little closer to being crossed in the very near future. The reason we bring this chart up again today is to show you how close the S&P 500 is to a HUGE pivot point. You could argue the eight previous rebounds at the S&P 500's 100-day moving average and/or the rising support line (blue and red, respectively) means a ninth rebound is likely. And, maybe it is. I'm not going to assume anything at this point, however. We'll have one answer or the other soon enough, and we can't rule out the possibility that the long-established floor is finally going to snap. The good news is, we have a way of confirming if the index has entered meltdown mode. Take a look at the VIX again. I've got a feeling if the VIX punches through the ceiling at 17.6 at the same time either or both of the S&P 500's floors fails to hold up, that will spark a much bigger selloff that may not stop until the VIX reaches 21.6. The S&P 500 could be retesting the 1815 area by the time that happens. Like we said, we're not telling you this is what's going to happen. We're just drawing you a roadmap. At this juncture, we're willing to see how it all plays out and then respond to the move that ends up materializing. Yet.... While the major large cap indices appeared to remain in reasonably healthy shape today, were you watching the Russell 2000? It broke down big-time. It matters, because small caps - along with the more aggressive NASDAQ - tend to lead the market higher and lower. If the Russell 2000 is imploding, can the rest of the market be far behind? And this isn't just a little volatility either. Unlike any of its large cap counterparts, the Russell 2000 made a major lower low today, falling below the previous low of 1107 to close at 1101.74. Worse, it made this lower low after making a lower high with the early September peak. Point being, this is a major shift in the index's momentum, and it may be too late for it to reverse course. The bearish crosses of all the moving average lines for the Russell 2000 also says the momentum has already turned bearish. Whatever's in the cards, odds are good we'll continue to see the occasional bullish swing. I'm getting further and further into the bearish camp though, not looking for a new bear market but expecting a more significant correction. Regardless of what's going on with the Russell 2000, we really need to see the S&P 500 break under all its support between 1955 and 1965 before we can assume a full-blown correction is underway. The market may need to move up a little before making that bigger move lower. Stock Talk As much as we hate to keep bringing it up, if it's a hot trade then it's a hot trade - there's nothing we can do about it. What I'm talking about is Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK). I think we first mentioned last Wednesday how Elite Opportunity subscribers were in the trade well before a big 12% intraday pop earlier that day, but we also passed it along as a suggestion to you guys on Friday (the 26th) after the stock had logged two more decidedly bullish days that screamed "breakout". Finally, we mentioned it again on Monday - yesterday - after yet another bullish surge that officially carried Merrimack Pharmaceuticals into breakout territory. Please tell me you were listening at least one of those times. Why? Because MACK had another day today, fueled by the momentum we've been monitoring since last week. Now, while I didn't mind "borrowing" one of the trading ideas the Elite Opportunity service gave to its readers once I knew enough time has passed to let all of those folks get their shot at getting in (if they wanted in), I'm not going to be able to tell you the specific target price John Monroe has in mind for the Merrimack position. I can tell you he does have one though. I think I told you yesterday I'd try to let you know as soon as I saw it if MACK hit that level, if we have time and room in the newsletter. But, like before, I'm going to make sure all the Elite Opportunity subscribers have their chance to make an exit first. That's the only fair way of doing it. Anyway, while we don't have any new trades from the Elite Opportunity newsletter to pass along to you today, there are two recently mentioned by the EO I'm keeping an eye on for you. We don't want to name names yet, since both of them need to do a little more work before getting in good enough shape to trade. Both are close to a trade-worthy status though, so we can at least start looking at their charts. The first one is a possibility John Monroe suggested yesterday. After pulling back since mid-August, John felt the worst was over and a bounce was in the cards. After today's action, I don't disagree. Though the bears pushed it to a lower low early in the session, that appears to have been an open invitation for the bulls to pour in. In other words, today's slightly lower low and sharp reversal - on high volume - seems to have flushed out the last of any sellers and kick-started the reversal. One more good day above today's high should cement the bullish swing trade in place. If it happens, we'll revisit this potential idea. As for the other possible trading idea, this one's a little bit of a different setup. As John Monroe pointed out a few days ago, this stock is getting squeezed into the tip of a wedge pattern. Well, it was getting squeezed into one. It looks like it finally got squeezed out of the triangle pattern in a bullish direction. Technically that's the buy signal, but I'd really rather wait and see this breakout firm up a little bit before officially suggesting it. My confidence in the budding rally is high, however. If you'd rather get these trading ideas before their rallies get going in earnest, Monroe does everything in real time, and he tends to pull the trigger well before we get to here in the end-of-day newsletter. We have to play it ultra-safe in this newsletter, while the Elite Opportunity can afford to be a little more aggressive. It matters, because timing is everything. On that note, if you're just burning to know which two particular stocks we were talking about above, your free two-week trial to the EO service includes access to all the archives. You could easily browse back to previous Elite Opportunity newsletters and take a detailed look at not just these two potential ideas, but all of the suggestions Monroe has shared in recent editions. Here's how to get the free trial. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/