Welcome back to the trading week, fellow traders, though today's weakness certainly wasn't how the bulls wanted to follow through on Friday's bounce effort. The fragile rebound really needed to get a convincing start this week to get - and keep - all the would-be buyers interested again. The market's inability to break through key ceilings today bodes poorly for the near future. Yet.... If everything (including our commentary) all seems a little wishy washy of late, you're not crazy. That's been the environment lately. The S&P 500 is right back where it was in late July, and it's not like it's been much higher or much lower between then and now. You know what though? If that's the environment we're in, then that's the environment we're in. It's better reserve your trading for true opportunities than force trades when there's not actually an opportunity at hand... kind of like now. But I digress. Let's not get philosophical when our priority is to get as predictive as possible. And, though we didn't get any big directional clues from stocks today, at least we confirmed where the make-or-break levels are. Let's just start with the S&P 500 today, since it's currently the most telling of the major indices we keep tabs on. What we learned here is, we have to take the floor at 1966 seriously, since a mere brush of it today sparked a bounce. Yet, we have to wonder if the former floor at 1980 has since become a ceiling. Actually, I think we can attribute a pretty good piece of today's intraday rebound to the fact that the VIX touched its ceiling around 17.2 and then started to peel back. Though we can't say the VIX has started to move lower yet, today's bar really makes you wonder. There's certainly room for the S&P 500 to rise a little while the VIX falls back. The 20-day line at 1994.2 is still "the" make-or-break level for S&P 500, meaning the market could actually move a little higher here and let the VIX ebb lower without breaking the downtrend. On the flipside, I'm not going to get bearish until the floor at 1967 is good and broken. The index found a floor there for three days in a row. That can't be a coincidence. The NASDAQ is basically sitting on the same fence, so instead of rehashing those details I'd rather show you a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, since it offers more hope than any other index does at this point. Take a look. The lower 20-day Bollinger band and the 50-day line at 16,933 are both still acting as firm floors for the Dow, and until both break, the market remains in the hunt for a breakout. So.... yeah, stocks continue to spin wheels. More than anything right now, the market's caught between a rock and a hard place. We know it's annoying, but if the trades just aren't there than they're just not there. Until it gets out of that rut, take your shots at your own risk. In fact, the smart-money move of late has been betting on a reversal once the rock or the hard place have been tested. Heck, the Elite Opportunity service has scraped off several profitable swing trades using that as their M.O. As for bigger picture momentum though, we're still in what you would consider a low-payoff/high-risk environment. If we had to guess though, we're still expecting a good-sized pullback before a good-sized rally. Ideas We had a few new good-looking trade possibilities pop up in this weekend's scans for stocks with new momentum, but we're going to table those tickers until later this week and instead poach some of the swing trade picks the Elite Opportunity has recently posted. The one I think you absolutely have to see is Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK). I think we mentioned this one to you last week after the stock perked back up Thursday, but it merits another look after today. Why? Take a look. Breakout City. When we zoom out to a longer-term weekly chart of MACK, I swear I think this thrust looks even juicier. It's actually a long-term rally. John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity simply used a short-term lull as an entry window. The other swing trade John Monroe recently suggested to EO subscribers is the ProShares Ultra Crude Oil Fund (UCO). John felt a turnaround was brewing when we first suggested it back in the September 12th newsletter, and he was pretty much spot-on from the get go. After today's bullish move though, there's little doubt as the new-found bullishness. You can see on the daily chart how the move above $32.08 is also a move to new highs. To really explain how much opportunity is packed into UCO, though, you have to see this longer-term chart. The V-shaped reversal is well-defined in this timeframe, which means it's apt to remain intact. Normally I wouldn't be so keen to divulge the Elite Opportunity's recent picks. At this point though, I don't think they'd mind. These notices were delivered to EO members several days ago, so if they were going to get it, they already got in. Besides, both trades are already up a little since the EO passed them along to that newsletter's readers. I think the UCO position is up about 7% since John Monroe mentioned it, while MACK is up about 15% since Monroe picked it on the 19th. Both look like they have a little more upside to dole out though. I'll try and let you know if and when I see the Elite Opportunity reverse their calls and make an exit on UCO and MACK. No guarantees though... our publishing schedule remains pretty crazy. Here's how to get them for yourself though. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ We'll have the regular SCN watchlist update for you later this week, along with a portfolio update. The SCN portfolio only consists of ePlus (PLUS) right now, though, not what we've shed JC Penney (JCP) and Columbia Banking (COLB). From the Site There were several interesting commentaries posted at the website today, but we only have time to highlight two of them for you. The first one is Peter Graham's look at the NYSE's most shorted stock. Ever heard of Castlight Health (CSLT)? I had, but just barely. A bunch of traders seems to be plenty familiar with it though, so much so that it's the NYSE's most shorted stock right now. A whopping 68.7% of the float is currently held as short trades, which means those traders are betting the stock will go down. Does it deserve to be shorted, or is all this short selling a setup for a short-covering rally? Pete's dissection may hold an answer. The other post you may want to note at the site today was James Brumley's look at the brewing breakout from RiT Technologies (RITT). He makes a great point about how this second wind from RITT could be the one to get the job done. It's more of a trade than an investment, but it's still a nice setup. That's all for today, folks.