The Clock is Ticking on a Market Correction

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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This may be the most maddening market I've seen in a long, long time. Seriously. I've been involved in the market one way or another for close to two decades now, and though I have seen more indecisive, wishy-washy action, I've not seen it that often, and it's not been that much more convictionless than what we're seeing right now. Maddening.


But, we have to trod on, knowing a big, trade-worthy move is coming sooner or later. And yes, I continue to lean bearishly.


So what was so frustrating about today's action? Don't misunderstand. We got some of the key bearish clues we've been waiting on for a while. But, how we got them isn't as convincing as we'd normally like to see.

The Fed's Rate Decision Is No Longer the Detail to Worry About on Thursday

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Well, this is almost it... the last time we'll get a chance to chat before we all learn the Fed's decision regarding a rate hike this month. The decision will be posted on Thursday, at 2:00 pm EST. If Janet Yellen doesn't do it then, barring something of an emergency situation, she won't get another chance to do so again until December.


Though traders were effectively betting on the Fed Funds rate NOT being raised this month, interest rates have been drifting higher recently anyway, implying that the bond market knows the rate hike is coming sooner or later.


And then today's inflation news came, quelling what already looked like a diminishing chance of higher interest rates anyway.

The Calm Before the Storm: Stocks Stall in Front of Interest Rate D-Day

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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In Friday's newsletter we pointed out the S&P 500 was wiggling its way into the tip of a converging wedge pattern. This trading pattern was solidified today, with a lull back to the mid-point of what's become a very narrow trading range. I'm exactly 0% surprised it's happening as we make our way to what's possibly the most pivotal interest rate decision any of us have seen in years.


We'll dissect the action as much as we can, as usual. But, there's not a lot to poke around.

It's Official - SPYR is Ready to Crash the Mobile-Gaming Party

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Good Wednesday morning, friends and fellow traders. No, you don't need to check your watch. Today's edition of the SCN newsletter is coming to you pretty early in the trading day rather than after the close, mainly because there's some time-sensitive information we think you'll want to see ASAP.


Giving credit where it's due, Bryan Murphy's intuition from earlier this month regarding up-and-coming mobile-game publisher SPYR (SPYR) was right on target. He posted his thoughts on the company's newest hire back on September 3rd, pointing out the guy was a proverbial rock-star within the digital publishing world. Well, as suspected, he's already taken charge and set a tone that speaks volumes about where SPYR is headed. This morning's press release from SPYR essentially confirmed Bryan's suspicions.


That news release along with our thoughts on it is below. Just to make sure we're all on the same page, however, there's some quick catch-up work we want to do to get everyone up to speed on how quietly amazing this company has been, and how much more amazing it could be.

Have Copper and Aluminum Hit Bottom?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Good Tuesday afternoon, one and all. We hope everyone had a nice, relaxing long weekend, and if you didn't, today's bullishness certainly made it much easier to start what will be a shortened trading week.


That's not to say the bulls are going to continuing charging, of course. After all, we've seen days like this before - recently - to no avail. The only thing today really proved was that the indices are content just to bounce around in a sideways trading range. Thing is, we still contend stocks need to make at least one more low below their August 25th bottom to completely clean things up and burn off all the froth that's been building up since, well, really since 2013.


We'll slice and dice it as we always do, but first, I want to take a couple of minutes to look at two commodity charts we don't normally look at. Though traders have had good reason to lump all commodities into the same pile of late, I think we're starting to finally see a divergence in how and why each of the major commodity groups are moving. Better still, I think there's an opportunity in the differences.

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