The Worst Two-Day Stretch in Weeks, Yet the Bulls Are Still in the Game

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Howdy folks. Would you believe the past two days are actually the most bearish two-day stretch we've seen since late July? It's true. Stocks have lost more ground since Friday's close than they have during any other two-day span in the past two months. Yet, there's still more than a small glimmer of hope, as the key floors we're mentally using as make-or-break levels still aren't broken.


We'll take a look at what's not yet wrong with the market in a second. The first thing I want to do is give a shout out to John Monroe over at our sister publication, the Elite Opportunity newsletter. He's kept his finger on the pulse of how the stock market and the bond market have been playing off of each other. And, he specifically suggested the iShares 20-year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) was due for a bounce back on the 15th. It's been a brilliant trade so far.

Another Day, Another Failed Breakout Effort. What's It Mean?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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We've mentioned this before, but we can't say it too often - we welcome all your questions and feedback, good, bad or otherwise. We really do read all of your e-mails to us, respond to them when merited, and if it's a response all our readers can benefit from, we'll respond to feedback here in the newsletter. We got one such note last night (in response to Thursday's newsletter). KA writes:


Do We Trust Thursday's Breakout? Plus, One More for the Watchlist.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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OK, maybe there were more bulls waiting on the sidelines than yesterday's pullback would have suggested. Today the S&P 500 reached a new record high, and unlike yesterday, on Thursday the S&P 500 stayed at its new high levels.


From a technical perspective it's a textbook bullish clue... "buy new highs", you know? Yet, I don't like it. The S&P 500 is now priced at just a hair under a trailing P/E of 18.0, and a forward-looking P/E of 15.7. Both are at - and maybe beyond - what could be considered a palatable, normal range. I just don't know how investors are going to justify higher prices anytime soon.

Stocks Sizzle, Then Fizzle, on Fed News. Now What?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Did Wednesday's action make you seasick? It wouldn't be surprising. Despite a strong finish to Tuesday's session, the market faded over the course of the first half of today. Then on the heels of news from the Fed, stocks soared... but only for about an hour and a half. By the end of the day, the market was back to just a tad above breakeven. The much-ballyhooed rally many were expecting - maybe even counting on - came and went in a flash. The failure to follow-through on the initial bullish pop today is a huge red flag.


Before we get to a short-term analysis of the market, however, let's just be clear about all of today's underpinnings. And, I'm not just talking about the Federal Reserve's decision and outlook.

Tuesday's Bullishness in Front of Fed News Was Ill-Advised Buying

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Wow. That was odd. Despite yesterday's fairly severe beat-down, the bulls decided it was already time to go bargain hunting. You have to think a great deal of today's optimism was founded on hope that the Federal Reserve's meeting today and tomorrow is ultimately going to lead to something good for stocks. And, it may end up not being a bad bet. We're adopting more off a "wait and see" mindset on the matter of the Fed and Janet Yellen though.


Whatever the case, it's all reflected in the charts of the major market indices, so we'll look at those clues today before making any kind of plan of action for tomorrow.

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