Did Wednesday's action make you seasick? It wouldn't be surprising. Despite a strong finish to Tuesday's session, the market faded over the course of the first half of today. Then on the heels of news from the Fed, stocks soared... but only for about an hour and a half. By the end of the day, the market was back to just a tad above breakeven. The much-ballyhooed rally many were expecting - maybe even counting on - came and went in a flash. The failure to follow-through on the initial bullish pop today is a huge red flag. Before we get to a short-term analysis of the market, however, let's just be clear about all of today's underpinnings. And, I'm not just talking about the Federal Reserve's decision and outlook. Fed's Impact on Gold, Bonds, & the Dollar Contrary to popular belief, the party actually started this morning when last month's inflation levels were posted. Let's just say Janet Yellen has nothing to worry about if her concern was too much stimulus. As of the end of August, the consumer inflation rate stood at 1.7%... a tame figure thanks to three straight months of declines. It's not like this is a fluke either. The semi-related producer price inflation rate has been equally tame for the past several months. What this means is, Janet Yellen has room to keep the Fed's simulative efforts in a high gear. While I don't see this as being any need or reason to slow or halt the tapering of the Federal Reserve's bond buying program, this inflation situation could allow Yellen to keep the "considerable time" description intact in terms of how much longer interest rates would be uber-low. But did she? Yes she did. The minutes from the Fed's most recent official policy meeting says it will still be a considerable time before rates begin to inch higher. There's still no exact date interest rates might be moved upward - at least not a publicized one - but most pros think it's not going to happen until the early part of next year... maybe sometime between March and July. Moreover, the minutes revealed the same "good but not great" assessment of the economy's health. The impact was bullish for bonds and bearish for yields, as could have been expected. And, it was modestly bullish for the U.S. dollar and therefore bearish for gold, also as could have been expected. Take a look. The thing is, I've got a feeling today's announcement from the Fed isn't going to have any kind of impact on gold, the greenback, bonds, or yields beyond tomorrow. The minimal movement on all four fronts from what has to be the biggest economic news in several weeks suggests the market had already priced the data in (perhaps without even consciously realizing it). My gut tells me the bigger trends that had been in place prior to Wednesday will resume by the end of the week. This is where things get interesting. Whether the Fed's key interest rate starts to rise in March or July is kind of irrelevant. The market knows it's coming sooner or later, and bond yields are going to inch higher between now and then. That's why I believe TNX on our chart above is going to keep rising, and the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is going to keep falling. I don't think the rise from the U.S. dollar is going to remain in place, however, which indirectly means I expect gold to keep falling. Yes, this outlook is contrary to today's moves from gold and the U.S. dollar index. It's pretty clear the dollar was already stalling at a ceiling around 84.35 though, and even today's jolt couldn't get the index over the hump. And, although it's less meaningful, we still see a decent floor for gold and/or the gold ETF. GLD seems to be unwilling to move below the $116 area. I'll take both hints at face value. This isn't a long-term outlook, but it's not a short-term one either. We're talking about what's likely to pan out for several weeks. Now, let's talk about how stocks responded to Yellen today, and where they might be headed next. Well, That Was Quick To tell you the truth, had stocks not rallied quite nicely this afternoon before pulling back to a very tepid gain, I'd be a little more willing to be bullish, thinking the rally was simply delayed. It wasn't delayed though. The bulls got the exact response they wanted to the news from the Federal Reserve, bought stocks because of it and after having about an hour to think about it, change their minds. If traders were truly bullish here, we should have seen a heck of a lot more persistence than we saw on Wednesday. When we zoom into our charts, the picture starts to look a little more bearish. Care to guess exactly where the S&P 500 topped today? At 2010, where the index peaked three weeks ago and where the upper 20-day Bollinger band was positioned. It all makes a lot of technical sense, but more than that, it underscores just how difficult - if not impossible - it's going to be to hurdle that big level. The NASDAQ Composite had a similar problem, briefly crossing above the 20-day moving average line but closing back under it when all was said and done. I'm not saying the bulls can't get back on the horse later this week and break past 2010. We're just saying today's peelback doesn't bode well. On the flipside, it's not like any of the indices are below their key technical floors, so the bearish technical argument at this time isn't really any better than the bullish one. Mostly we're on hold here. I will remind you once again, however, I'm leaning bearishly because the calendar says we're at what's usually a bearish time of year. The still-overbought market only fans those bearish flames. What I'm really waiting on is the S&P 500's break under 1980 before excluding a bullish outcome from all this mess. But what about the Federal Reserve's bullish/dovish plans? I'll let you in on a little secret that will make or save you a ton of money in the market... investors (and the media) may talk a big game, but when it comes down to it, events that are supposed to be catalytic are often forgotten about less than a day - or less - later. I suspect this is because by the time a proverbial D-Day arrives it's been so hyped up, any of the buying and selling that was supposed to happen after the news was announced has actually already been done. The only thing to do at that point is to unwind positions. It's where the "buy the rumor, sell the news" axiom came from. This isn't to say today's news wasn't meaningful. It's going to take weeks for today's news to get baked into stock prices though. The market could take several short-term twists and turns before the effect of the "considerable time" language makes its full impact. It's the old short-term-versus-long-term argument popping up again. Bottom line? I would have thought this consolidation phase would have ended by now, but clearly it didn't. We're close though. We could re-enter a confirmed bullish move tomorrow with the S&P 500's break above 2010, although it would probably take two or more days to enter breakdown territory.