The market attracted some pretty good overall interest since the gap down early yesterday morning. We provided a range for the NDX yesterday between 2590 and 2550 suggesting that's where this market was going to find a short-term base, and sure enough once the NDX broke through 2590, a significant amount of interest came plowing into the major indexes. I've included an hourly bar chart here of the NDX showing you what I refer to as a wash and rinse. The extreme move down followed by a strong move up and a repeat of that action is a classic wash and rinse, which usually suggests a short-term bottom at the very least.
The only thing you should keep a watchful eye for is a break below that support level that the NDX has tried to put in since early yesterday. It's possible the NDX could catch traders by surprise with a sharp move down again but I suspect if the NDX attempts to make that move, it will likely be met with a fairly strong snapback.
Hope you all had a great weekend. If you're a horse racing fan, our Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby picks we gave you on Friday were close but no cigar. Yea I know, close only counts in horseshoes, no pun intended. Two out of three of our Oaks picks ran 3rd and 4th while two out of three of our Derby picks ran 2nd and 4th. Respectable to say the least but not good enough. What makes it even more frustrating is I had insider info that "I'll Have Another" was going to run a big race on Saturday but just didn't choose to believe the source. Guess I've got a little egg on my face because right after he won the Derby on Saturday, my first thought was... wow, I'll have another. Oh well, next year!
I'd say good Friday but the truth is I haven't seen a gap down this ugly in quite some time but it most definitely doesn't come as a surprise. We've been making it pretty clear ever since we called this selloff that the rallies couldn't be trusted and last week's short-term bounce again only proved to be an opportunity for short sellers to open favorable entries. The good news is, we're at a level now that could potentially allow the major indexes an opportunity to find a solid base. However, that's yet to be determined.
We're not seeing much change today in our opinion of the major indexes. I suspect this is the calm before the storm, and don't take the word storm as necessarily being a negative. It's simply another word for volatility and that is usually an environment to make money if you can cut out all of the media noise.
The markets traded lower on the open this morning blaming weak retail sales for April. However, the major indexes made an attempt to move higher on some exuberance over lower than expected unemployment claims but have since reversed course as I type.
Good hump day all. See what we mean about the DOW? The oldest and supposed most trusted index by investors took out a new four year high yesterday only to reverse course and fail on the breakout... at least for now. There was quite a bit of exuberance on that new high yesterday but the media has decided to blame today's move lower on jobs data. I said yesterday that the DOW achieving a new high doesn't mean much for the overall undertone of the market.
It's comedy to me that every day the market moves higher or lower, the media has a yo-yo mentality with their financial coverage. Market is up... Spain receives favorable debt auction! Market is down... Spain is in recession! You get the picture. The bottom line is we're in pullback mode and much like oil has traded for many years now, it's all based on speculation and technicals. Just our opinion of course.