Good hump day all. See what we mean about the DOW? The oldest and supposed most trusted index by investors took out a new four year high yesterday only to reverse course and fail on the breakout... at least for now. There was quite a bit of exuberance on that new high yesterday but the media has decided to blame today's move lower on jobs data. I said yesterday that the DOW achieving a new high doesn't mean much for the overall undertone of the market. It's comedy to me that every day the market moves higher or lower, the media has a yo-yo mentality with their financial coverage. Market is up... Spain receives favorable debt auction! Market is down... Spain is in recession! You get the picture. The bottom line is we're in pullback mode and much like oil has traded for many years now, it's all based on speculation and technicals. Just our opinion of course. Advertisement New Breakthrough Fuel Could Power Your Car It took the earth 300 million years to make the oil we burn. Imagine if we could squeeze that whole process into just a few months... a few weeks... or even a few days. Because that's exactly what could be happening. At least a half-dozen labs and companies are working on this, right now. If they get it right, we could literally "make" as much gas for your car as you need. We could make fuel for planes, trains, and diesel trucks this way too. Find out more by clicking here. Advertisement So, don't believe the hype. Let's stay focused and remember, if and when the NDX takes out a new high, that's when we can get excited. The NASDAQ 100 Techs are the leaders of this market and I seriously doubt that is going to change anytime soon. As a matter of fact, with cloud computing, new mobile device technology, faster pipes and cost conscious CEO's, we're pretty convinced tech is the sweet spot in this market. Just look at some of the biggest tech bellwethers... Apple, Amazon, Google and even Microsoft all continue to impress. When Microsoft is trading well, you know tech is in favor. I also include biotech in that category as well. I'm not suggesting you run out and buy these big names stocks right now because quite honestly for the time being, I don't think there's a good risk/reward ratio with many of them. If you didn't own them then, why own them now? What I am suggesting is let's keep a close eye on the NDX because that's likely going to be our biggest clue that this market either wants to move lower or if it wants to break out into new high territory. Today's move lower just confirms we really can't buy into relief rallies right now with the major indexes. With yesterday's move to the upside being a bit of a surprise to us, today's move lower is no surprise at all. Although we were a little quick to jump the gun yesterday by taking our short-term theme of fading the rallies with put option purchases off the table, it reminds me of my favorite market quote of all time... "It's better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out". Remember that. Never look back on a profitable trade and say coulda shoulda woulda. Or, don't watch a stock go up thinking dang, I should have jumped in. If you start doing that, the market will drive you nuts. We've all been there. With everything I've said here now, I think we've got more of a pinpoint on what this market wants to do. I've included an hourly bar chart of the NDX here. If the NDX can take out yesterday's high of 2756 being a key level, I'll bet we move right into rally mode. If it can't crack that level over the next few days and moves below 2707, we're going lower. U.S. vs. Everyone Else This isn't something we've talked about much here at SCN but I believe it's important for us to give you our take on it. Over the last few years and even still now, so many financial professionals have appeared on your favorite financial station preaching and pitching investment opportunities in what they refer to as emerging markets. First it was China, then Brazil, now Vietnam and South Africa. We even got a reader inquiring about some oil shale in Russia the other day. I'll say this... investing in emerging markets right now is a big mistake in my opinion. I have nothing against any other country except that if you believe our government is corrupt, look around. For the most part with exception to a few countries in the Eurozone, we're still the best of the worst. Investing in emerging markets is a big boys game. Not a game for the retail investor in my opinion. We've all been lured by money managers and brokers into thinking that emerging markets can offer much better returns than domestic opportunities. Personally, there's a few issues I have with this concept. First, when you've got many invested abroad, where's the transparency? Do you really know what's going on with your investment? We've all watched how a plethora of china stocks out there were cooking their books. If that didn't teach you anything, then I don't know what to tell you. Second, there's a lot of instability and sensitivity out there right now with various government relationships between countries. Just look at the recent news out of China with activist Chen Guangcheng fleeing to the U.S. embassy and how that sparked a little political controversy? Don't think for one second that if that escalates that money won't start pouring out of china stocks even more than ever before. Advertisement Something Very Big Will Happen in America Within The Next 180 Days! It will touch Americans deeper than anything since the Great Depression. It will hit like a brick wall. Most people will not like what we have to say until they see the facts in this controversial new video. Our first five predictions have already come true. Fail to heed this financial warning at your own risk! Click here to see this video here now. Advertisement Don't get me wrong, I'm not picking on China. I'm simply pointing out a few important reasons why keeping your investment dollars here at home may be the best thing for your portfolio. Another important reason is emerging markets are going to have their growing pains much like a small cap stock on its way to becoming a big cap and if you don't have a clear handle on what's going on there, you're subject to a beating without a clear explanation. That's the worst when Dad smacks you and you don't even know why. Our final and most important reason is back in '08 when the markets imploded, that reset the bar here at home providing investors with an opportunity to take advantage of renewed growth. It's almost as though we once again have an emerging market here at home. We've been forced to create new jobs and find ways to spark new growth right here in our backyard. That's a landscape for investors to make money. And, just look at what the major indexes have done since the beginning of the year? So, I beg the question... if you don't see opportunity here at home, then I guess you just don't know how to answer the door when opportunity knocks. I'll leave you today with one last thought. If things go south from an investing perspective here at home, my guess is it's going to be much uglier abroad. As Buffet always says, invest in what you know and I suspect you know you're backyard better than some random backyard in Timbuktu. Keep your money invested here at home. It's American and it's smart.