Thursday's Rally: Blastoff, or Blowoff Top?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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So much for the bearish thesis. The S&P 500 as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average both reached new all-time highs today on Thursday, mostly spurred by what was perceived as good news on the jobs front - unemployment claims dropped pretty significantly. The thing is...


Good, But Still Not Great

Bernanke's Indecision is Killing Stocks. And, Time to Shed This Trade.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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How was everyone's Wednesday? Good, I hope, though given how muted today's action was, I think it's safe to say most traders aren't quite sure where things are going from here. I do have some thoughts on the matter though, as usual, but first, I have to get back on the soapbox and rant a little. Don't worry - I'll keep it brief... but it's gotta be done.


Enough Already

Uh-Oh. Stocks Stumble Right on the Verge of a Breakout. Now What?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Well, it was bound to happen sometime. After eight straight days of gains for the market, the bears finally decided to sink their teeth into stocks on Tuesday. Thing is, as vulnerable as the market was thanks to the 7.0% runup since June's low, today's stumble looks like it could be the beginning of a sizeable correction.


Don't misread what I'm trying to say to you. A pullback isn't a new bear market. A pullback is simply the resolution to an overbought condition. Even the worst-case scenario pullback (which I'll describe for you below) isn't going to be devastating.

Earnings Season's Not So Great, Yet Stocks Rally Anyway. What's the Deal?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Well folks, the first week of Q2 earnings season is in the books, and despite Friday's lethargic session, it was a bullish week overall. The S&P 500 managed to close about 2.6% higher than the prior week's close. Yet the market's still on the fence. We'll take a look at how and why in a second. There's a handful of other items we need to dissect first. In the interest of time (mainly yours'), let's just dive in and work through them in rapid-fire fashion.


Earnings Check-In

The Bulls Clear a Key Hurdle Right as Earnings Season Begins

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Well, as you probably already heard, Alcoa (AA) posted mixed results. The operating profit of $0.07 per share was better than the $0.06 analysts were expecting, and much better than the break-even from a year ago. Sales were down a bit, however. Traders are responding favorably to the news, as they had baked in weaker results.


As I mentioned to you already, Alcoa's numbers aren't a harbinger of what to expect for the rest of earnings season. Enough people think Alcoa's results matter enough, however, that they'll turn them into something meaningful. You have to be aware of that reality, but don't expect the impact to linger. We'll stay focused on harder-hitting things, like a new trading idea. More on that in a second. Let's poke and prod today's market action first.

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