News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Bulls Clear a Key Hurdle Right as Earnings Season Begins
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well, as you probably already heard, Alcoa (AA) posted mixed results. The operating profit of $0.07 per share was better than the $0.06 analysts were expecting, and much better than the break-even from a year ago. Sales were down a bit, however. Traders are responding favorably to the news, as they had baked in weaker results. As I mentioned to you already, Alcoa's numbers aren't a harbinger of what to expect for the rest of earnings season. Enough people think Alcoa's results matter enough, however, that they'll turn them into something meaningful. You have to be aware of that reality, but don't expect the impact to linger. We'll stay focused on harder-hitting things, like a new trading idea. More on that in a second. Let's poke and prod today's market action first. The Bulls Beat the Odds Never let it be said I only see what I want to see on a chart to make it jive with my outlook. I've been leaning bearishly for a few days, but the S&P 500 defied that stance today by (1) crossing above a key resistance line, and (2) putting some bullish distance between itself and the 50-day moving average line it hurdled on Friday. While I still see trouble ahead at some key lines in the very near future, the bulls are in the driver's seat right now, and they're giving the market a shot at a breakout. It is what it is. My worries about the breakout mainly stem from two things on the chart. The first one is the S&P 500's upper Bollinger band at 1658. The second one is the VIX's lower Bollinger band at 14.15. Once either one is reached, the rally WILL be at an extreme, and traders WILL have to make a major decision - either they're going to keep buying and prolong the rally, or they're going to take what they can get and start locking in their recent gains. Until then, the trend is your friend. As you know all too well though, if there's anything that can pop this balloon in a hurry, it's a couple of bad earnings reports - aside from Alcoa's - that could turn traders into pessimists. On a side note, last Tuesday I was griping that Noodles & Company (NDLS) shares had been ridiculously strong following their IPO... strength that wasn't deserved, nor built to last. Yeah, well, I hope you were listening. The thing is down 15% since then, almost back to its first publicly-traded price. That's why you steer clear of hype. I'm not saying the company's a poor company. I'm just saying this is one of those cases where the stock became bigger than the company for a while, which makes trading it nothing more than a coin toss. There are no earnings announcements in the lineup for tomorrow. There are no major economic news items scheduled for tomorrow either. That means whatever the market does on Tuesday, it's going to have to do on its own. That might be good or bad. Nothing to 'CRY' About With This Stock You know, I've told you before, but it bears repeating now... the SmallCap Network and its regular contributors are well-seasoned, and have put together several proprietary sorts-and-scans that find opportunities nobody else has uncovered yet. In fact, one of the better stock-finding approaches we regularly use is the one that found Northwest Pipe (NWPX), which I threw Northwest Pipe (NWPX) on the table as an idea a couple of Fridays ago. I felt pretty good about it then, but I'll confess I'm shocked the stock's up more than 9.0% in just a few days. The gain speaks for itself. Well, we got a whole new batch of ideas at the end of last week. Since that particular stock-picking strategy is working - and since traders seem to be in a bullish mood again - I figure I'd give you another idea from the same trading system. Among the best of the best this week was CryoLife (CRY). If you haven't heard of the company, don't worry - you're not alone. It's only a $175 million outfit, and doesn't exactly do much to keep itself in the limelight. It's a pretty cool company, however, and worth a look. Simply put, CryoLife makes implantable living tissue used in cardiac and vascular surgery. It also makes a hemostat called PerClot, and a few other biomedical devices. It's not exactly the most stable of businesses to be in, but CRY manages to keep things steady. Not great (earnings slumped last year), but steady. The earnings chart from cnbc.com below tells the tale. Growth was healthy through 2011, but fell from $0.35 per share to $0.28. The pros think $0.28 is in the cards again for this year, but CryoLife has a penchant for beats. It's also got a catalyst or two to make those beats. It's beginning a PerClot trial in the United States, and it's gotten a CE Mark for its HeRo graft system, all within the last month. Even without an earnings revival next year though, the forward-looking P/E of 16.0 is palatable. What's really got me jazzed is the chart - I see a brewing breakout. I know the image below looks pretty messy. I can sum it all up for you with just a few words though. Simply put, CRY has worked its way out of a downtrend, and is making a new uptrend. In fact, it's already happened. Shares are also finding support at key trend lines. Yes, the ceiling at $6.78 hasn't yielded yet. That's the risk. If you wait until the ceiling at $6.78 is cleared, you reduce your risk, but you also leave money on the table. From where I sit, the likelihood of CryoLife shares being slung out of the $6.00/6.80 zone is high enough to take a swing. It's ust an idea, and admittedly, not even the most solid idea out there. You know who's putting out great - and solid - ideas on a regular basis though? The folks over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. I wasn't going to say anything about this trade so soon because it wouldn't be fair to current SCN EO subscribers. But, now that it's up 17%, you guys are (and I don't mean this the way it sounds) far enough behind the Elite Opportunity's members on the trade that they won't care if you jump on it now. It's LeapFrog (LF), and the position is 17% higher than where it was when John Monroe picked it for the Elite Opportunity back on mid-May. Here's the thing... that 17% advance isn't even the best trade the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity has on the table. Three more of the other ten open trades the SCN EO has right now are up even more than that; two of them are up more then 30% in less than two months. With numbers like that, all of a sudden the Northwest Pipe and CryoLife picks seem a little lackluster. You can see what it's all about and get a bunch of high-octane picks, for free, by using the SCN EO's two-week trail offer. Here's how. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/