You know what I liked about today's market action? It wasn't that stocks managed to hang on for a near-breakeven with Tuesday's close. (That was nice, but a little bit ho-hum.) What I liked about today is the fact that the bears had a chance to push the market over the edge, but couldn't get the job done. Just before breaking under a key floor, the bulls stepped in and bid the market back to even for the day. Like we mentioned to you yesterday, stocks are due for at least a quick bullish bounce before resuming the bigger pullback, and today's session bolstered that argument.
Just for the sake of continuity, we're going to update our look at the S&P 500 today. It pretty much speaks for itself. Monday's low of 1739 was barely eclipsed by today's low of 1737, and it took practically no time at all for the bulls to decide that area was a floor. The end result is an index that finished the day right where it started it, and finished the day pretty much where it left off on Tuesday... closing down 3.5 points/-0.2% for the day.
Wow. To say the Denver Broncos didn't cover the spread is the understatement of the year. Favored over the Seattle Seahawks by two, the Broncos ended up losing the big game by 35 points. Wow. That's the biggest blowout since the 49ers whipped the Broncos 55 to 10 back in 1990(the biggest-ever margin of victory for a Super Bowl game, by the way). In fact, the Denver/Seattle game last night was the third-biggest Super Bowl drubbing ever; the second biggest was one was in 1986, when Jim McMahon and Walter Payton led the Chicago Bears to victory over New England, 46 to 10. All I can say is, wow. Good thing for you I can pick stocks better than I can pick football teams. Speaking of blowouts...
There's no point in pretending like the 800-pound gorilla in the room isn't there. You already know the market got hit hard on Monday. That pullback, and what it means for you, is going to be the focal point of today's newsletter. Before we get into the discussion, though, there's one thing I need to pass along to you here in the shadow of Monday's meltdown... don't freak out! Take a breath, stretch a little bit, resolve to take emotion out of the equation, and let's make a plan of action together. Fair enough? Great.
Most Fridays are a little more enjoyable than other weekdays because the weekend is right around the corner. This particular Friday, however, was a welcome event just because we can now mentally close the books on an uninspired week, put a terrible month (for stocks) in the rear-view mirror, and put a poor start to the new year behind us. All told, the S&P 500 lost around 3.5% in January. That's the worst monthly performance since August of last year, and the worst January since 2010. Yikes.
Never let it be said the market isn't interesting. Twice in the past four days stocks have been pushed to the brink of collapse, and twice the bulls have been able to avoid careening over the cliff.... with today's rebound effort being particularly solid on the heels of not-surprisingly good GDP growth.
Well, as far as Presidential State of the Union addresses go, last night's was relatively uneventful. I didn't hear anything all that surprising anyway, though maybe you did. Either way, the market didn't seem to be too worried about it, or too excited about.
Maybe traders were more interested in today's news from the Federal Reserve, which also wasn't much of a surprise. Pretty much as expected, the monthly bond-buying effort was trimmed by another $10 billion beginning in February, to $65 billion, down from the budget of $85 billion per month as recently as December. Of course, surprise or not, it's not what the market wanted to hear.
Hooked on that stimulus, today's selloff suggests traders were somehow secretly hoping the Fed would see too many red flags to dial down its QE efforts. No such luck. The market sold off just enough to bring us to the brink of a big collapse, though interestingly, we still haven't moved past the point of no return. I'll show you what I mean below. Before that, while the dust from President Obama's speech and Ben Bernanke's last words as Fed Chairman is still settling, there was something else that popped up today I found worth a look, and I'm pretty sure you'll find it interesting too. Like always, I've got an opinion on the matter, and as seems to be the case too much of the time,mine is the minority opinion.