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Despite No Gain on Wednesday, the Bulls' Resiliency is Telling
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

You know what I liked about today's market action? It wasn't that stocks managed to hang on for a near-breakeven with Tuesday's close. (That was nice, but a little bit ho-hum.) What I liked about today is the fact that the bears had a chance to push the market over the edge, but couldn't get the job done. Just before breaking under a key floor, the bulls stepped in and bid the market back to even for the day. Like we mentioned to you yesterday, stocks are due for at least a quick bullish bounce before resuming the bigger pullback, and today's session bolstered that argument. Just for the sake of continuity, we're going to update our look at the S&P 500 today. It pretty much speaks for itself. Monday's low of 1739 was barely eclipsed by today's low of 1737, and it took practically no time at all for the bulls to decide that area was a floor. The end result is an index that finished the day right where it started it, and finished the day pretty much where it left off on Tuesday... closing down 3.5 points/-0.2% for the day. So what? The "so what" is that we made a hammer-shaped bar at - or near - the end of a pullback, which often indicates the last of the sellers have been flushed out and the first of the buyers are starting to trickle back in. The fact that the reversal happened at a key low as well as at a key lower Bollinger band says we at least have to respect that possibility. On the same chart you can also see the VIX made a mirror image of today's bar from the S&P 500, augmenting the near-term bullish/reversal argument. There's room for the S&P 500 to climb back to the 1810 area and/or room for the VIX to fall back to the 15-ish area before hitting a wall. And, I still believe the odds are that we're going to use as much of that room as possible... for both indices. For the record, the NASDAQ Composite as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average look about the same as the S&P 500 did today, hinting that the bulls don't want to let stocks slip under Monday's lows just yet... at least not without a fight. Like the S&P 500, both of those indices also have room to rise before hitting a technical ceiling. When all three indices are singing the same song, it's generally a clue you can have faith in. The only potential trump cards are that we're in the middle of earnings season, and we've got some major employment data in the lineup for Friday. So, anything could still happen from here. The charts, however, are leaning bullishly right now. Stock-Picking-Paloosa If you're looking for some trading ideas, you're going to be glad you stopped by today. We don't have an officially-unofficial SCN newsletter portfolio pick, but there were a bunch of new stocks put into the limelight at the site this week worth a look. First and foremost, John Udovich has had his finger on the pulse of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) since late January, taking a look at the company right after the post-earnings plunge, and then updating that look at AMD yesterday. If you want a quick but thorough update on Advanced Micro Devices, this is it. At the extreme other end of the size scale is Latteno Food (LATF), which James Brumley uncovered today. As he mentioned in the write-up, don't worry if you've never heard of it before, as most people haven't. He just thinks it's an interesting idea for anyone who missed the runup in marijuana stocks and is now looking for a way to get into the craze via the backdoor. Finally, although it's a couple of days old now, Brumley also made a great point about the way Royale Energy (ROYL) was acting now. It may not be taking off the way he was expecting on Monday, but the bigger undertow is still trying to push it higher. It just needs to break above a certain level to get going. With all of that being said, we're not putting out a new newsletter pick today, but we do still have Quicksilver Resources (KWK), Peoples Bancorp (PEBO), and PICO Holdings (PICO) on our watchlist. We put them on our radar last week, and even though they've all peeled back a little this week, they're all still interesting. We may even use their recent weakness as a buying opportunity, though truth be told, in this market environment we'd rather buy something on the way up rather than try and catch a falling knife. We're going to add Westfield Financial (WFC), Isramco (ISRL), Silicon Image (SIMG), CubeSmart (CUBE), and Kilroy Realty (KRC) to the watchlist today. Oh, I'm also putting BlackBerry (BBRY) back on the watchlist. So why are we not pulling the trigger on any of these? Mainly because I'm not crazy about the current market environment, though I'm sure there are some traders who will find something interesting enough in the watchlist to go ahead and scoop it up. Yes, I'm a short-term bull here, but that bullishness is only an expectation for maybe three or four days' worth of "up", and only for an advance of about 3%. That's (in general) not enough upside to bother getting into any new picks. When you've only got room for about three percentage points' worth of upside, there's not enough opportunity to merit the risk. To leverage an opportunity of that small size, you really need to use an index option or maybe a leveraged ETF or leveraged fund. It's not that we'd never do that, but we usually don't do that kind of laser-precise trading in the newsletter. Do you know who does that kind of leveraged, well-timed trading though? Your good buddies over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service, who just happened to dive into a leveraged trade of their own on Wednesday. Sorry, I can't tell you what the trade is, but I don't mind showing you a chart of that pick. It's the nearby image. Realistically, this trade has the potential to dole out a quick 10% gain or so in just a few days, though like all short-term trades, the SCN EO is keeping a short leash on this one. The great part about this new pick is that it's not too late for you to get into it. You can even find out what the pick is, for free, by using your free two-week trial offer to the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service. And I'm telling you, it's well worth adding John Monroe's expertise to your trading repertoire. The precision index-trading we can't really do here in this newsletter? Yeah, well, the SCN EO can and does that kind of trading in its newsletter. Take a look by going here and signing up for a trial. Or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/