You can definitely tell summer's around the corner and that attention is being put somewhere besides the stock market. Even though earnings season is winding down, there's still plenty of news to be processed - it's just falling on deaf ears. A bunch of people are thinking about vacations, the end of school, golf, or whatever, because there's sure not a lot of focus being put on equities right now. Trading volume remains well below the norm,
Well, I can't say I'm surprised the market failed to follow-through on Monday's bullish effort. I don't mind confessing I'm surprised the bulls gave up this soon, however. I woulda thought Monday's gains inspired a bunch of people to get off the fence and into the game for at least a couple more days. No dice. Traders are once again hesitant.
OK, I'm convinced we're all victims of some giant conspiracy theory that's trying to torture us via the stock market. Today, for the eleventeenth time in less than two months, the major indices toyed with the idea of moving past a key support or resistance line and then reversed course. It's enough to make a nun curse. Ugh.
Here's where we are.... for a short while today, the S&P 500 did manage to trade above the first of its key resistance lines at 1884. It did NOT, however, even get a chance to take a shot at the second one before rolling back under the key 1884 level. It looks like that 1884/1895 zone is still an effective ceiling, like it was last week, like it was in early April, like it was in mid-march, and like it was in early March.
Do you ever get the feeling the market is explicitly trying to aggravate you, or frustrate you into submission? If it ever happens, it's happening right now.
As I suspected was a distinct possibility in yesterday's newsletter, all it took to spark a rebound from the S&P 500 on Wednesday was a move just a tad below a major support level at 1864. In other words, right when it looked like stocks were starting a more significant pullback, it switched gears again and doled out a fairly nice gain... at least for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average [not so much for the NASDAQ]. In retrospect, today's action looks a lot like the action from two Mondays ago (the 28th) when the index slumped a tad below the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines on an intraday basis and then came roaring back for a solid gain. Take a look.
You know, it's days like today that can really mess with your head. The market's pullback - within sight of record highs, no less - feels like it's the beginning of a relatively significant pullback. Don't fall into that trap, though. While it may have been rough, the reality is, Tuesday's tumble didn't actually create any kind of real opening for the bears with most of the market. In fact, it may have been just what the doctor ordered to maintain the attempt to get a true breakout started.
Check out the chart of the S&P 500 below. Yes, it looks like the ceiling at 1885 did its job by repelling the bullish effort before it got started. Even with the 0.9% slide, however, the S&P 500 still held above its major support at 1863... the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.