News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Rest of the Producer-Price Inflation Story
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

You can definitely tell summer's around the corner and that attention is being put somewhere besides the stock market. Even though earnings season is winding down, there's still plenty of news to be processed - it's just falling on deaf ears. A bunch of people are thinking about vacations, the end of school, golf, or whatever, because there's sure not a lot of focus being put on equities right now. Trading volume remains well below the norm, Advertisement Today's Top 10 Penny Stocks - Free List Just released! This complimentary list will continuously rank today's top 10 stocks under $10 using MarketClub's technology and scanning tools. Show Me Today's Top 10 Penny Stocks List Advertisement Still, there's trading to be done and perspective to be shared, and even though the market was nodding off most of the day today, once again we've got more to talk about than we actually have time or room to talk about it in. That's why today's edition is going to be a rapid-fire chat, focusing on the relevant facts and then moving on to the next item. Let's go. Inflation? Really? Don't know if you saw this or not, but the first of April's inflation data was unveiled today. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer price inflation - the cost that our factories, food processors, and fabricators incur when they buy supplies and materials - grew at an annualized pace of 2.1% last month. That's the strongest inflation that producers have dealt with since we saw a rate of 2.4% in March of 2012... and it was on the way down then. Take a look. A bunch of people immediately (proverbially) held up their finger and said "aha - all that cheap money and easy credit is finally coming back to haunt us." I'm not so sure I agree though. In fact, I'm sure I don't agree. Looking beyond the headlines and deeper into the BLS's report, you'll find that 100% of that big inflation bump is the result of food and food-stock price increases. Energy prices and other material prices are actually quite tame. That doesn't change the overall effect, but it's definitely worth understanding that the inflation surge is limited to food. Of course, if you've been in a grocery store anytime in the past three months, none of this is a surprise to you. As for what impact I think the pop in food prices will have, I doubt it'll stymie things too much anywhere. In fact, given that producer inflation is quite muted everywhere else and the jump in food costs were more fear-based than structurally-based, I'm really not worried at all. That being said... The rest of the inflation picture will be drawn tomorrow when we get last month's consumer price inflation number. I'm pretty sure we'll see a similar bump, all attributable to food prices. But, with most other prices remaining capped, I still don't see this as being a problem for the economy. Heck, we could actually use a little - though not a lot - of inflation, just to prove there's a little pricing power in the economic ether. My mental target is between 2.0% and 2.5%. The trick is pushing inflation up to that level and then stopping it before it races beyond that mark. We'll update the chart with April's CPI data on Thursday. Meh Yes, stocks lost ground today, but we pretty much saw that one coming. Unable on Tuesday to follow through on Monday's advance, the buyers simply walked away today, letting the sellers have control. Even then, however, the bears were relatively disinterested. Volume was once again minimal, and when all was said and done the market didn't actually suffer any damage. The S&P 500 tells the story as well as any other chart does, so we'll stick with it today. As you can see, yesterday's stall at the upper Bollinger band (a 20-day band, by the way) was just enough of a pause to cause Monday's buyers to doubt the rally had any gas left in the tank. Down we went. Thing is, Wednesday's pullback didn't actually do anything to suggest we're in dire straits yet. The S&P 500 is still above all of its key moving average lines - short-term and long-term - and still within reach of new highs. There are plenty of worse situations to be in. So what do we do? We continue to be patient and wait for the right opportunity rather than try and force a trade with the wrong opportunity. I still contend the market is just as capable of finding its way out of this rut in a bullish direction as it is breaking down and giving us a full-blown downward correction. It's just going to be a matter of what kind of mood investors are in when the right situation arises. For me, I'm not going to care about any weakness until/unless the S&P 500 breaks under the 50-day moving average line at 1868, but I'm not going to be bullish until the S&P 500 pushes its way back above the 1892 area on a more permanent basis. Anything else is just noise, and not worth chasing. The potential trump cards to any developing trend (in either direction) are pitiful volume and a wickedly-low VIX. Stock Talk It's been a while since we took a look at all of our open positions, mainly because when you only have two trades in your hypothetical portfolio, what's the point? With the addition of Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) on Tuesday, however - and with more picks on the way now that we're seeing stocks start to develop some new momentum - we'll start updating it more often. We'll also be giving you any updated news on our picks, and any random observations that come up in the meantime. Anyway, no news from or about AES (AES) or Genesco (GCO). Both stocks have been a little lethargic lately, but that's got more to do with the calendar than the companies themselves. As for Cloud Peak Energy, we haven't gotten off to a roaring start there, but I'm ok with that. We knew going into it that it was going to be a long-term play (though I don't recall every actually telling you guys that), so we're going to remain patient there. That being said, although there was no news from Cloud Peak today, there's a very relevant update we have for you regarding the entire coal industry: As of late last week, Appalachian coal prices are at multi-month highs, and knocking on the door of a new 52-week high... though I doubt we'll get to new highs in a straight line. I think this is an important factoid to bring to your attention simply because it points to a continued rebound for the coal industry. A lot of self-proclaimed pundits are picking on some recent coal-miner earnings, suggesting these companies can't survive because coal prices are poised to stay low. If coal prices were under pressure though, that would be showing up on this chart. Clearly more and more coal buyers are willing to pay higher and higher prices for the stuff - that's the only thing the rising chart can mean. No, it won't last forever, but it could last a while. I wouldn't want to miss a nice trade-worthy trend just because it might not last forever. While we're on the topic of coal... If you've been reading and believing all we've been saying about its recovery since we pegged it as one of 2014's best theme-based trades back on April 8th, but you were hesitant to get into a small name like Cloud Peak for the long haul, you might want to know that the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity added a coal stock of its own to the service's portfolio today. It's a "same but different" situation. The underlying reason their coal pick looks good is because there's an industry-wide rising tide and this stock is a short-term play that should get going mostly because of the technical setup the industry's recent bullishness formed for this name. I can't tell you what it is, but I will tell you it's not Peabody (BTU). I'll also tell you that the coal stock the Elite Opportunity picked today was my close-second choice; I would have been happy with either. John Monroe was right on target with his analysis, though - while CLD is the better long-term play, his pick is the better coal stock that's ready to dole out a short-term pop. There's still time to poach his short-term pick, if you want. Just sign up for a free two-week trial to the Elite Opportunity service. That will give you access to all the EO newsletter archives, including today's that had the short-term pick in it. I recommend you use the offer too. Though my bullishness on coal is a long-term outlook, there are all kinds of ways to play it, including a few short-term swing trades. Here's how to get it, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/