An Annoying Bullish Clue Has Developed

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome to the weekend, fellow traders. While it may have been a fairly uneventful end to a mostly-uneventful week, there's still plenty to talk about, like the fact that the riskier NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indices fared far better on Friday than the Dow or the S&P 500 did. So what? It's a sign of a "risk on" mentality for investors, which is one of the underpinnings of a typical bull trend. There's still very little that's certain with the market right now, but history has shown it's wiser to respond to what the market is doing rather than what we think it should be doing.


Don't Fall for the Bullish Intraday Headfake

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Good Thursday afternoon everybody, and congratulations to supporters of the United States' national soccer team, which just advanced to the next round of this year's World Cup tournament. Though it actually lost to Germany (one to nothing) in today's match, it finished in the upper half of its preliminary tourney group and as a result will advance to the next round.


Think a Short-Covering Rally Will Prolong the Uptrend? Here Are the Facts.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Happy Friday, one and all. We hope you had a great trading week, but if you didn't, at least the weekend is here and that always helps. Of course, if you've been trading alongside the SCN newsletter's portfolio then you DID have a great week. Our ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP) position has been on a roll for the past few days, and the Astec Industries (ASTE) has been on a tear as well. We'll take a quick look at ANI in a moment and offer some updated advice on how to handle it. There's something more pressing to get out of the way first.


Even if you only follow the market at arm's length, I'm sure you've heard someone out there use the term "short covering" at some point within the past couple of months. As is so often the case though, those doing the talking failed to provide any context or data for their theory. That's not to say these folks are wrong. I'm just saying, there's a lot more so-called conventional wisdom floating around in the market's ether than there are cold, hard, proven facts. So, to give you the information someone else probably should have given you when they posed their premise, today I'm going to take a detailed (though concise) look at the market's trailing short interest, just for the sake of getting it straight.

Copper & Aluminum Outlooks, Plus the Fed's "Goldilocks" Assessment

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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She's off and running. We told you yesterday, right or wrong, the market was getting back into bullish mode, and Wednesday's big gain proved it. While we're still unsure of just how far the rally could take stocks, we know they're going higher right now and we're looking to ride the trend as long as it lasts. Take a look.


Here's Why We're Not Worried About Rising Oil Prices

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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The bulls may have staved off the selling effort and led stocks to a small gain on Monday, but it's hardly a cause for a celebration. Volume was once again light, and we can chalk up at least a good chunk of today's "up" to the bounce stemming from a solid two-day drubbing on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. One or two more daily gains this week and we might turn a little more optimistic. Today wasn't a head-turner though. In fact, we saw a suspicious clue not from stocks, but from the S&P 500's Volatility Index (VIX).


We've talked about it a few times already, but it's been a while since we've been able to talk about it like this. After weeks of a slow drift lower, the VIX is finally starting to put some pressure on a technical ceiling around 13.0. If it can just keep inching its way higher and move above that line it would actually be a quiet but significant game-changer for the stocks... for the worst.

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