Good Thursday afternoon everybody, and congratulations to supporters of the United States' national soccer team, which just advanced to the next round of this year's World Cup tournament. Though it actually lost to Germany (one to nothing) in today's match, it finished in the upper half of its preliminary tourney group and as a result will advance to the next round. Advertisement Analyze Any Stock For Free - Instant Report Use this complimentary tool to learn the short, intermediate, and long term trends of any stock, determine market strength, and more. See the latest Trade Triangle entry and exit signals in this quick technical analysis report. Start Your Trend Analysis Now. Advertisement If you're wondering how you can lose and still move on in a tournament, the simplest and shortest explanation is, World Cup soccer isn't necessarily a single-elimination tournament. The total number of goals scored relative to everyone else in your initial bracket is what determines if you advance, and a one-point loss to Germany was good enough for USA to go ahead (since our guys did relatively well against the other three teams in the bracket). In any case, the United States team will play again on Tuesday, July 1st, and though I won't get to watch that game either (I'll still be working to get this newsletter written and sent) I'll be cheering them on in my heart and mind. Side (but related) note: A poll conducted by Captivate Network showed that more than half of all working U.S. professionals have already watched World Cup soccer at work this year. An estimated $1.7 billion worth of productivity will be lost in the U.S. this year because of workers paying attention to matches rather than their jobs. Life certainly goes on for us and the markets, though, so let's just take things from the top and dissect today's action. Don't Fall for the Headfake Oy vey. Once again the market has managed to throw us the most vexing curveball possible. What looked like a nasty selloff early on in the session - the kind that could really start a selling avalanche - ended up being mostly reversed before the closing bell rang. While the market still ended Thursday in the red, it was a "just barely" situation... just enough to keep the bulls on the hook. So now what? Well, there's actually a little good news in the mess - the recent sideways movement has given the market time to draw key lines in the sand. For the S&P 500, the key support level is 1945. That's today's low, but it's also where the 20-day moving average line is now. At the same time, a technical ceiling has formed at 1961. The index hit highs right around there on Thursday as well as Wednesday. We saw a brief move above the 1961 level earlier in the week, but I really believe 1961 is the biggie. That said, I'm going to be cautious all the way up to the 1970 mark where the upper Bollinger band is currently resting. In fact, the more I think about it, I'm halfway expecting a test of the 1970-ish area. See how the VIX made a higher high today and then peeled all the way back to its low for the session? Once again, all it took was a brush of a ceiling (this time between 12 and 13), and poof! It was immediately back-pedaling. There's room for the VIX to keep falling before it's back at a key floor around 10.3 too, which would give the S&P 500 time and room to test 1970. This is admittedly a pain-in-the-@#$% market. The momentum seems technically bullish, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see things are getting squirrelly now that valuations have pretty much reached their upper limit. My guess is still the same one as before. That is, I think we're ultimately headed for a decent pullback. Given how close we are to the end of the month though, it wouldn't surprise me to see the market remain mostly range-bound between now and the end of the month and end of the quarter on Monday. Fund managers and institutions fishing for a bonus - or at least aiming to finish the quarter looking good -can do so by doing nothing other than sitting on the market's 4.5% gain for the calendar quarter. Come Tuesday, July 1st, however, all bets are off. Of course, it's still going to take a break under the 20-day moving average line from the S&P 500 and a break above 13.0 from the VIX to really convince me this overdue pullback is finally underway. We know this is a lot like watching paint dry, but sometimes doing nothing and waiting is a prudent choice too. Did You See? We haven't had much of a chance of late to show you some of the site's best recent commentaries, but have to make time to do so today - there's just too much good stuff to not point it out. For instance, Bryan Murphy noticed how well Glu Mobile (GLUU) shares have been doing of late, and takes a thorough technical look at the stock. Spoiler alert: While he likes GLUU in the grand scheme of things, he doesn't like it right now. You'll just have to read it to see why. Peter Graham also gave us a preview of what to expect from KB Home (KBH) when it unveils last quarter's earnings on Friday, before the market opens. You'll recall how our broad take on the latest batch of real estate data in Wednesday's newsletter was general optimism. It'll be interesting to see if KB Home took advantage of the generally bullish tide. Another spoiler alert... a few clues tell us the homebuilder is brewing up an earnings beat. Last but not least, James Brumley is really coming around on American Apparel (APP). You may recall this is the company that just ousted its CEO after several years of wishy-washy results, though the ultimate, unspoken reason for the termination may simply be that the guy's a little creepy. Whatever the cause, the stock itself appears to be knocking on the door of a breakout effort. Brumley serves up the details. That's it for today, folks.