The Market Tide Just Turned Bearish - We're Dumping Two of Our Stocks

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Well, there it is. After fighting it all week long, the bulls finally succumbed to the pressure the bears had been applying for a while. Two of the major indices broke under their currently-critical floors, and may - and I stress "may" - have finally started a long-overdue correction. In this crazy environment we can't take anything for granted.


Let's just start at the beginning and point out how the S&P 500 closed under the 20-day moving average line at 1992, and broke under the horizontal floor at 1990. It hit a new multi-week low too. Oh, and the pullback unfurled on the most volume we've seen in several weeks. Take a look.

Thursday's Gain Didn't Reignite the Rally. Plus, a New Pick.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Happy Thursday, everyone. Kudos to the bulls for logging another winning day for stocks. Gotta be honest - Thursday was a minor blow to my bearish thesis, and not just because stocks made a gain. I'm still leaning bearishly, but we owe it to you to look at both sides of the coin. So...


Let's just start at the beginning. On the chart of the S&P 500 below, we can see how once again the index briefly traded under the 20-day moving average line, and once again, the bulls pushed back above it. Ditto for the floor at 1990 - the S&P 500 traded below that support line for a while, but when all was said and done the bears couldn't push the market over the cliff.

Was Tuesday the Next-to-Last Death Blow?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Happy Apple Unveiling Day! We figured we may as well call it that rather than simply call it Tuesday, since - let's face it - the Apple event is the only thing the market truly cared about today.


As expected, Apple (AAPL) showed us the much-anticipated iWatch, and also gave us two new renditions of the iPhone... the iPhone 6. The new "regular" phone has a 4.7 inch screen, and the "Plus" version of the iPhone 6 is tiptoeing into tablet territory with a 5.5 inch screen. We also heard an update on the company's efforts to turn your smartphone into a digital wallet.

Two Small Caps We're Falling in Like With

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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The market as a whole continued to vex traders on Monday. We can't say it's surprising, though we can saw a few other things about today's wishy-washy action. We'll have the usual market discussion below. The first item we need to take care of is an explanation of this newsletter's odd headline.


Two Small Caps We're Falling in Like With

Setting Targets, and Drawing Lines in the Sand, for the Market

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome to the weekend, folks. While stocks may have ended the week on a high note - with a gain on Friday - the holiday-shortened week was basically unproductive. I think we can attribute Friday's advance to hopes that weak job numbers would inspire the Fed to remain dovish longer than it was planning on remaining a couple of weeks ago. I don't see the euphoria lasting past the weekend though. If the market really is going to rally this month, it's going to need more.


We'll talk about what's ahead for stocks in a second. The first thing we need to cross off our checklist today is a reality check for the employment report.

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