News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Was Tuesday the Next-to-Last Death Blow?
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy Apple Unveiling Day! We figured we may as well call it that rather than simply call it Tuesday, since - let's face it - the Apple event is the only thing the market truly cared about today. As expected, Apple (AAPL) showed us the much-anticipated iWatch, and also gave us two new renditions of the iPhone... the iPhone 6. The new "regular" phone has a 4.7 inch screen, and the "Plus" version of the iPhone 6 is tiptoeing into tablet territory with a 5.5 inch screen. We also heard an update on the company's efforts to turn your smartphone into a digital wallet. The stock was surprisingly lethargic early on, but when the conference got rolling at 1:00 pm EST, you can almost synchronize the intraday chart with the event's unveiling schedule. As for what it all means and where AAPL is apt to go now, I think I mentioned yesterday how my digging into the company's past product debuts was inconclusive as far the impact on the stock's price. Sometimes it was bullish, sometimes bearish, and most of the time it was neither. It doesn't look like there's any clear direction this time either. My advice? Don't mess with AAPL at this point. If you're in, stay in until you have a reason not to be in. If you're out, the only thing you're missing is a lot of volatility and stress for while. There are plenty of other trading opportunities out there to look for. In fact, we'll give you a couple of possibilities today. Besides, we've obviously got some bigger fish to fry after today's marketwide action. The Next-to-Last Death Blow? Ouch. Actually, I suppose things could have been worse on Tuesday in terms of the size of the market's drop. The major indices only ended the day about 0.7% in the red, which isn't a huge stumble. In fact, the bleeding on Tuesday stopped at some very important floors, offering a glimmer of hope for the bulls. From a truly unbiased point of view though, Tuesday was more of a victory for the bears and a loss for the bulls. For better or worse, the meltdown so far is proceeding pretty much as expected, meaning the levels that we could expect to be lines in the sand ended up being lines in the sand. For the S&P 500, this means the 20-day moving average line wound up playing support role today, with the index just brushing it and then pushing up and off of it. Similarly, the VIX's upper 20-day Bollinger band halted its advance. Take a look. The bad news is, the S&P 500 closed below its important floor at 1990, so from here it gets much easier for the bears to beat it down. Likewise, the VIX still managed to move above its 50-day moving average line, signaling a new trend. The NASDAQ Composite and the VXN are pretty much in the same shape, meaning the NASDAQ is putting some serious pressure on its floor at 4545, and the VXN pushed above its 50-day moving average line and started to put a ton of pressure on its upper 20-day Bollinger band. There's no need to show it to you here, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke under a key floor at 17,010 for a while today, and the Russell 2000 small cap index easily hit a new multi-day low. Putting it all together, as much as we'd like to be able to say stocks have moved past the point of no return, they haven't; there's still a smidgen of hope for a quick recovery. It's definitely the low-odds outcome at this point, however. Aside from red flags, there's another reason I'm increasingly concerned about a relatively significant rollover here. I don't know if we've mentioned this to you before or not, but if not, we'll give the Q&D lesson now.... U-shaped reversals tend to follow-through much better than V-shaped reversal efforts do. By V-shaped reversal we just mean there's a sharp point and a clear pivot day on which the market's momentum changed direction. A U-shaped reversal, on the other hand, tends to materialize over a period of several days, and unfurls gradually without a clear pivot day. I don't know why there's a difference, but there is. More important to is right now, however, as that both the S&P 500 as well as the Dow - and even to some degree the NASDAQ - have formed the bulk of a U-shaped reversal. One more lower low and lower high should seal the deal, though at this point I'd be willing to bet a lower low and a lower high later this week are foregone conclusions. Of course, a lower low for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 would also mean a break under recent floors, so it would be something of a double-whammy. Whatever the case, although I can see some kamikaze bulls making a last-ditch effort to put the rally back in motion tomorrow or Thursday, I'm pretty certain today has spooked investors for a while. Without many, if any, willing buyers left to keep bidding the market up, only a sizeable pullback and a firm sense of an undervalued, bottomed-out market is going spur any real bullishness from here. A close under the key floors we talked about above should seal the deal, whenever it happens. Welcome to September. From the Site Don't know if you saw these or not, but if you didn't, I wanted to point you to some of today's best and most actionable commentaries posted at the website today. While I don't want to add a footnote to somebody else's thoughts, I don't think any of our regular contributors would mind me adding that today's market action adds something of a twist to all these outlooks. If the market really starts to tank here, it's going to put some bearish pressure on, well, most everything. In no particular order... It's a micro-cap (a nano-cap, technically), so be even more careful than you usually are with a trade. But, Bryan Murphy made a great observation about THT Heat Transfer Technology (THTI). It's still apt to be a rocky road ahead, but this little Chinese energy efficiency name has been building up some steam. If you've been following the Lululemon (LULU) saga to any degree at all, then you'll probably want to take a look at Peter Graham's earnings preview. The athletic-wear maker is scheduled to report last quarter's results on Thursday morning, and it's certainly going to be interesting for this tumultuous company. Finally, James Brumley is digging Dynasil Corporation of America (DYSL)... almost. DYSL struggled a little after he posted his piece, but his basic thesis still stands. I think at this point though, the condition he wasn't worried about meeting this morning may be a condition he wants to see met now. Basically, DYSL needs to clear a certain resistance level before the stock really becomes buy-worthy. You'll just have to read to see exactly what he's talking about. That's all for today, friends and fellow traders, but PLEASE check in with us tomorrow. Today looks like it was the tipping point for the market, and if it was, the game just changed in a huge way. I'm not saying we're headed for a Titanic-like disaster. I'm just saying, from here we'll need to navigate very carefully until a bottom's clearly been made.