Hydrocarb Energy Gets Energized. Plus, the Market Rally's Clock is Ticking.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Whew! It's a good thing we went ahead and decided to add JC Penney (JCP) to the portfolio in yesterday's newsletter, for purchase this morning. Although the stock gapped a little higher at the open, it rallied even more after that. Waiting another day would have really put us behind the eight-ball.


Either way, the big catalytic event we were hoping to see from JCP materialized today, and odds are good the floodgates are going to open wide from here. The key ceiling - the brim-line of a cup and handle pattern - was $10.23, and though it wasn't an easy or clean fight, JC Penney shares closed above that level on Tuesday after peaking at $10.45. All it took was this last nudge.

We're Buying This Turnaround Story Stock. Plus, a Silver Outlook.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Did everyone have a great weekend? We hope so. Whether we were ready for it to start or not though, the new trading week is now upon is, kicking off with a jolt that should - and I stress "should" - have cemented a bullish swing into place. Although we've been worried (and still are) about the market's valuation, the market is more than capable of defying the odds in the short run.


We'll get to the nitty gritty in a moment. First we wanted to respond to two of the e-mails we got from readers this weekend. The first one is from Mat, who writes:

A Reality Check for Gold Has Good and Bad Points

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome to the weekend, folks. We've got our usual market analysis today, but as we promised to you in yesterday's newsletter, today we're going to tell you the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about gold demand. Despite the positive spin the World Gold Council always seems to put on the date, there's just no getting around the facts. On the other hand, it's not like gold is in dire straits here. The supply and demand really do seem to be stabilizing, meaning the price of gold is stabilizing too. It may not be great news for the miners, but it's at least palatable news.


Let's paint some broad brush strokes first. In the second quarter, total demand for gold from all regions for all purposes fell 11% from Q1's levels. That's a drop from 1,088 tonnes to 964 tonnes. This year's second quarter total consumption of 964 tonnes was also 16% weaker than Q2-2013's total demand of 1,148 tonnes. Our image below tells the tale.

Will JC Penney's Success Give Retailing Stocks a Needed Jolt?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Happy Thursday, fellow traders. I don't know if you've heard it yet, but you will soon enough... JC Penney (JCP) posted last quarter's earnings after the close today. They were good. Net income improved by 71%, same-store sales were up 6.0%, and revenue was up 5.2%. EBITDA turned positive, and though the retailer still booked a loss, there's no doubt the second quarter was a real reason for hope.


The proverbial "so what" is, this speaks volumes about the current state of retail stocks, and at least to some degree speaks about the strength of the consumer right now.

Making Lemonade Out of the Market's Lemons

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Ugh. While we like it when the market trends higher, we don't mind it when it trends lower; we can make money in both environments, you know? It's days like today and weeks like the past two weeks, though, that can really get irritating. Stocks barely budged on Tuesday, and are basically back to where they closed on July 31st. There's just not enough movement from stocks as a whole to serve up any real money-making opportunities... or are there?


While the overall market is still something of a lost cause until further notice, there are ways to latch onto trends in what seems like a listless environment. And, even if the major market indices don't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, there are some key clues taking shape on our index charts.

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