News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Making Lemonade Out of the Market's Lemons
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Ugh. While we like it when the market trends higher, we don't mind it when it trends lower; we can make money in both environments, you know? It's days like today and weeks like the past two weeks, though, that can really get irritating. Stocks barely budged on Tuesday, and are basically back to where they closed on July 31st. There's just not enough movement from stocks as a whole to serve up any real money-making opportunities... or are there? While the overall market is still something of a lost cause until further notice, there are ways to latch onto trends in what seems like a listless environment. And, even if the major market indices don't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, there are some key clues taking shape on our index charts. We'll talk about those clues in a moment, right after a quick discussion of one of the better ways to make some lemonade out of the lemons the market's been giving us since late last month. The Anti-Sector I'm pretty sure we've mentioned this to you guys before, but it's been a while, and it's a premise that can't be voiced enough. What is it? While a marketwide downtrend can drag most stocks lower with it, there's a sector that always seems to march to the beat of its own drummer.... biopharma. If you're expecting weakness from the market, then your best bet for a safe haven is to find a medical tech or biotech name or two. This is broadly true whether you're talking about a full-blown bear market, or even just a short-term correction like the one we've seen try to develop over the past couple of weeks. The reason for biotech and biopharma's strength in the face of weakness everywhere else largely has to do with the perceived consistent nature of the business. Regardless of whether times are good or bad, consumers are always willing to pay for good healthcare. Now, I've never seen any actual empirical evidence to say these healthcare companies see consistent income in a weak economy or a bear market. It doesn't matter - it was never the point. It's enough that traders expect biopharma stocks to do well when everything else is tanking, and that expectation puts trade-worthy bullish pressure on these tickers. In other words, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'd like to be able to tell you I've found a great-looking biopharma name ready to march higher for you while the rest of the market works out its kinks. And, believe me when I say I'm looking for a good biotech prospect. Someone beat me to the punch though... John Monroe over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. He added a biopharma pick to the EO's portfolio today that looks nothing short of brilliant. As much as I'd like to tell you the name of his newest holding, there's no way I'd cross that line. I already "borrow" too much market commentary from John as it is, and to outright poach his pick would just be crossing a line. I will show you a chart of his latest idea though. Look to your right. After peaking late last year, this biopharma name peeled back to a key Fibonacci retracement line... twice. And if you look closely, you can see the stock's pushing up and off the key retracement line now. It's a beautiful setup, and one I've seen work out well many times. You know, that's one of several things John and the Elite Opportunity team do better than just about anybody else or any other newsletter I've ever seen. He and his crew understand finding the right company is only half the battle. Finding the right entry spot is the other half. The double-pronged approach is the way we should all be trading stocks, and he's mastered the art. In any case, if you're not yet an Elite Opportunity member but have this gut feeling you're going to need to play some defense against a pullback soon, John's latest pick sure looks like it fits the bill. You can even get a free look at everything the EO is doing by signing up for a two-week test drive to the service. You'll be glad you did. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Battle Lines Have Been Drawn Don't worry - we're not going to preach today. We're just going to point out what needs to be pointed out and then move on. The market's not ready to really go anywhere, and there's not much point in making a mountain out of a molehill. First and foremost, had we only seen it yesterday it might not even be worth mentioning today. To see it two days in a row though? It may be something to note. What we're talking about is how the NASDAQ Composite appears to be trapped below its 20-day moving average line (blue) but above its 50-day moving average line (purple). It's a sign of indecision, but more than that, it's a clue stocks are trapped between a rock and a hard place. One or the other is going to have to break soon, and whichever direction the NASDAQ breaks out from here is apt to point us in the direction of the market's bigger trend. After all, the NASDAQ usually leads the overall market, up or down. While the action we saw from the S&P 500 today looks a lot like the NASDAQ's, there are some differences too. With the S&P 500 the trading range is much wider right now, between 1910 and 1955. The longer the S&P 500 simply moves sideways, the more that horizontal trading range develops. For both the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 the volatility indices seem to be finding support at their near-term moving average lines, which broadly implies the market's uptrend has stalled. Until we see the VXN and the VIX actually push higher though, we can't assume the uptrends have run out of gas. The point is, although we don't have any clear momentum pointing in either direction, we do have some clear cues to keep our eyes peeled for. I could go on, but that's enough said for now. We'll have some certainty soon enough. And yes, I'm still leaning bearishly. The S&P 500's floor around 1905/1910 is going to be the make-or-break mark. Stay tuned. From the Site The website's regular contributors have been as busy as ever this week, but a couple of posts really grabbed my attention today. One of then was Peter Graham's preview of the upcoming earnings announcements from Noodles & Co (NDLS). You know the company - the Chinese food chain that went public in June of last year. The stock got off to a great start, but stalled two weeks after its debut. Since October though, NDLS has been an outright disaster, losing 50% of its value from that point. In any case, Pete lays out the details and talks about all the factors that could have impacted last quarter's numbers. The other commentary at the site today worth pointing out is Bryan Murphy's look at magicJack VocalTec (CALL). We have to give credit where it's due... like he says in today's take, he saw the implosion coming four months ago. Unlike any other commentary we've seen thus far, however, Murphy seems to have his finger on the pulse of exactly what's wrong with magicJack VocalTec. If you've been trying to figure it all out since the stock's four-month, 35% meltdown, this is about all the explanation you could need. That's all for this edition folks. Talk to you Wednesday.