We Can't Trust Wednesday's Reversal Either. Plus, Hydrocarb Silences the Doubters.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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How does the old saying go? If you don't like the weather in [insert your state here], just wait five minutes? We all have to be feeling that way about the market right now. Yesterday's drubbing should have kick-started an avalanche, in that it pulled all the indices under some critical support lines. Yet, today we saw a huge rebound, driving stocks all the way back to where they finished the day Monday. Interestingly, all it took to spark the gain from the S&P 500 was a touch of last Thursday's low around 1926.


So now what do we do? If you're only a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, there's no action you need to take because of today. If you're a short-term swing trader though, I'm thinking we're going to see yet-another reversal out of all this, sending the market lower come Thursday; reversals seem to be the M.O. at this time.

Gold is Ready to Rebound. Also, a Q3 Earnings Primer.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Is it really time to start another earnings season? Yes it is. Alcoa (AA) gets the party started on Wednesday, after the market closes. Not knowing what may add itself to the publishing schedule between now and then, though, let's go ahead get our preview of Q3's earnings out of the way today.


As of the most recent look, the pros at Standard & Poor's believe the S&P 500 is going to earn $29.93 per share for the third quarter of this year. That's about 59 cents less than the Q3 expectations we were working with at the end of Q2, but it's 11.1% stronger than the $26.92 the S&P 500 earned in the third quarter of 2013.

The Rest of the Unemployment Numbers Aren't Nearly as Encouraging

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Yes, today was a biggie in terms of economic data.... maybe the biggest of all right now. Today was when we got the official (from the Department of Labor/Bureau of Labor Statistics) snapshot of September's employment situation. Once again you heard the more encouraging part of the story, so once again we have to tell you the rest of the story.


First and foremost, while the actual situation may not be as good the headlines implied it was on Friday, it's still basically "good". Let's explain what we mean.

Stocks Get a Reprieve, But Aren't Out of the Woods Yet

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Well folks, it looks like the Elite Opportunity's John Monroe was right so far about the market hitting a short-term bottom with yesterday's and/or today's lows. While the indices all hit lower lows today, stocks also recovered quite nicely mid-day. It looks as if the market just needed to slide a little lower - to clean up a few more lingering stops that hadn't been triggered yet - before getting back in a bullish gear.


I still have doubts about today's bullish reversal getting very good traction for very long. In fact, I'm still ultimately expecting lower lows to be made before October comes to a close. Yet, I also think John Monroe was really on to something with his near-term bullish thesis from yesterday's EO newsletter.

Hope for the Rally's Quick Recovery is Almost Completely Gone

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Any lingering hope of the bull trend getting started again without first suffering a big correction got much, much smaller today. There's still a smidgen of hope for a quick bounce from here though. Let's just start at the beginning, shall we?


Now, some of what we need to get out of the way first about today's action is going to be obvious. Just bear with me - there's a reason we want to put all the details on the table right up front. Anyway...

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