How does the old saying go? If you don't like the weather in [insert your state here], just wait five minutes? We all have to be feeling that way about the market right now. Yesterday's drubbing should have kick-started an avalanche, in that it pulled all the indices under some critical support lines. Yet, today we saw a huge rebound, driving stocks all the way back to where they finished the day Monday. Interestingly, all it took to spark the gain from the S&P 500 was a touch of last Thursday's low around 1926. So now what do we do? If you're only a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, there's no action you need to take because of today. If you're a short-term swing trader though, I'm thinking we're going to see yet-another reversal out of all this, sending the market lower come Thursday; reversals seem to be the M.O. at this time. Actually, just in the interest of completeness, I've got a feeling we'll see a tad more bullishness after today's gain. It should be just enough for the S&P 500 to test its 20-day or 50-day moving average line (at 1980 and 1974, respectively), and then the pullback should materialize. That said, don't be totally shocked if a selloff begins without a brush of these key short-term moving average lines. I'm just saying the odds favor such a retest unfurling before the next pullback. For what it's worth, all the other major indices look to be in the same situation as the S&P 500 is. So, there's no need to take a separate look at any of them. At this point I'd say the odds of the market successfully breaking above its converged 20-day and 50-day moving average lines are only about 25%. That means the odds of more downside are 75%, in my view. Should the S&P 500 break under 1926... well, I would say look out below, but given the market's preference for constant erraticness, I can't say with any real certainty a break under that floor would open the proverbial floodgates. It's still a level worth watching though. That's all we've got to say about the market for now, as what happens tomorrow is going to make or break things. Anyway, remember the chart I showed you on Monday, of how the rise of the U.S. Dollar Index and the corresponding selloff of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) had given us a huge hint of a reversal? That reversal has been confirmed as of today. Take a look. I'm sure there's still going to be plenty of back and forth from the dollar as well as gold, but in the bigger picture, I have to interpret this chart as it stands on the surface. We're looking for gold to rally in the near future, even if few others are in agreement. We'll talk more about the dollar and gold later. I just wanted to get an updated chart in front of you today. Real Help When It's Really Needed Is the market driving you nuts here, reversing course before a trend can develop, and then reversing again before the ball gets a chance to start rolling in the other direction? If stocks were a boat, we'd all be seasick by this point. While we've all seen it before (I've seen it more times than I care to count), it never really gets any easier; this chop is just as frustrating today as it was too many years ago when I started watching the market every day for a living. Yeah, well, a thought occurred to me today as I was reading through this afternoon's edition of the Elite Opportunity newsletter - it's real easy to seek out top-notch advice when the market is reliably moving higher and everything makes sense. Honestly though, that's probably when you need good advice the least. The time we all need the most help making sense of the market is when it makes the least sense.... like now. Look, you don't need me to tell you stocks are a hot mess right now. The market fell 1.3% last Wednesday, fell another 1.0% by the middle of the following Thursday, and by Monday of this week had gained 2.0% from Thursday's low. Then the market fell 1.5% yesterday, breaking under some major support lines, yet found a way to recoup all of that loss today. Just crazy. The most maddening thing of all about all this hot-and-cold stuff is, we still don't have any true clarity (we have opinions, but no clarity) about what's next for the market. Yeah, we're in the midst of a bullish swing right now, but we already know this effort could fizzle just as quickly as Friday's did. And worse, since early last week, all of the market's major pivots have happened at mid-day rather than in-between days. My point is, if you're having a tough time getting and keeping a grip on the current market mayhem, NOW's the time to get the best market-based advice you can get. Yes, we're ready, willing, and able to lend a helping hand here in this end-of-day newsletter, but we're somewhat handcuffed by time and timing. If you want the best trading advice when it matters most, I can't recommend John Monroe and the Elite Opportunity team enough. In fact, Monroe has been hitting the nail on the head when it's come to spotting the market's major intraday reversals of late. You know what though? Don't take my word for it. Check it out for yourself. Get a free, no-cost, no-obligation two-week test drive to the EO service. If you like it, keep receiving it. If it's not for you, no problem. I just know the kind of guidance John and his team have been delivering lately, and it's helped me a ton. I'm sure he could do the same for you. You can find out for yourself though, by going here. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ They Told Ya So (& Other Stuff) As always, there were several great write-ups at the site today, and as always, we don't have enough time or room to talk about them. Let's just do our usual thing and point you to the best of the best commentaries. In no particular order... First and foremost, we know at least some of you have been following - and probably even bought some - Hydrocarb Energy (HECC) after we told you all about it back on August 1st. Well, the company enjoyed a pretty big piece of vindication pie today. The increase in oil production the company has been talking about for months? An increase too many naysayrs said was never going to happen? Well, it's happening. The work that was done in July and August has prompted a big boost in September's output. Yet, the company isn't anywhere near done with the first round of reworks. It'll keep on re-opening wells through February (about 14 more in all), and I've got a feeling we're going to see more monthly increases like the one Hydrocarb Energy logged for last month. I won't give you the details here. I'll just direct you to Bryan Murphy's recap and thoughts on today's news from this up-and-coming oil outfit. Just suffice it to say the numbers HECC was batting around several weeks ago weren't pipedream numbers pulled out of a hat. Given last month's pace of productivity growth, everything Hydrocarb has been suggesting about its potential output since the middle of this year became very real, and very plausible in an instant today. For those not familiar with it, HECC is an oil junior with a lot of diversity, not just in terms of prospects but in terms of timeframes. It's got a small project driving revenue right now, a medium-sized project that will drive medium-sized revenue in the foreseeable future, and it's got a huge prospect that could take a while to cultivate... but is definitely worth the wait. It's not often you see a small oil company with an asset base this broad, which is what makes this stock so interesting. If you missed it the first time around, here's the SCN's first look. Anyway, the second item worth a look on Wednesday: Odds are good that by now, most of you are aware GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT) has officially filed for bankruptcy. The stock was sent careening, of course, but that plunge raises a question - did the sellers overshoot? After all, there's still some sort of value left with the company, even if it's just patents and equipment. John Udovich dives deeper into the question of whether one should go bottom-fishing with GTAT or not. Finally, if the marketwide malaise (today's bullishness being an exception) has you discouraged from buying any stocks at all, Bryan Murphy not only found three stocks that were rising against the bearish grain, but voices some ideas about the near-term future of these rallies. That's all for today, folks, but we'll be back at it on Thursday.