Q1 Earnings Season's (Almost) Final Report Card: One Bad Apple...

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome to the weekend, folks, and for most of you it's a long weekend since Monday is Memorial Day. We won't be publishing that day, as the market will be closed and there's obviously not going to be much to talk about. We'll be back in the saddle on Tuesday though, doing our usual thing. In the meantime we've got just a couple of items of business to take care of before all you guys and gals get started on whatever it is you have planned for the next three days.


First (but not foremost), last month's consumer inflation levels were a bit higher than expected. Then again, economists weren't expecting much. The pros were looking for a 0.1% month-to-month rise in overall inflation, and got it. On a core basis though - not counting food and energy costs - inflation grew 0.3% rather than the expected 0.2%.


Don't sweat it, however, because it's still not much. The annualized "inflation rate" remains negative. In fact, for April it was even more negative than it was in March. The annualized consumer inflation rate now stands at -0.2%. On a core basis though, it's still a more-normal 1.8%.... which I suppose only matters to those of us that don't eat or use gas.

You Know What This Grinding Stock Market Really Needs?

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Hello, friends and fellow traders. We don't actually have a lot to work through today, but what we do have is pretty important stuff. Let's just dive in with what's likely to be the least important data nugget and build our way up to the big highlight for the day. That not-so-crucial piece of information? Last month's sales of existing homes.


If you're just reading today's headlines it would be easy to become worried about the condition of the real estate market. Sales of existing homes (as opposed to newly-built houses) fell from March's pace of 5.21 million to only 5.04 million in April. Not only does it seem like a step back, it was a bit of a surprise considering only a couple of days ago we saw multi-year high levels of building permits and construction starts.


Don't panic. This isn't surefire evidence that a real estate slowdown is upon us. In fact, we suspect it's quite the opposite. You just need a little more context than the media provided with today's data to see the bigger picture.

This Industry is Just One Good Day Away From a Breakout

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Good Wednesday afternoon, one and all (or good Thursday morning, depending on when you get to read this edition of the SCN newsletter). As has been the case for the past few weeks, today's market action was vexing. And, as has also been the case for the past few weeks, we're going to poke and prod it anyway to try and come up with the most useful and relevant analysis possible. Before we open that can of worms though, we want to update you on our sector/industry outlooks. As the already wishy-washy market wades deeper into the lethargic waters of summer, the only way any of us are going to make any real money is by pinpointing exactly where the hot spots are.


Again, There's a Reason These Rallies Aren't Following Through

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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You know, there's no denying the market is still in a technical uptrend. On the flipside, there's no denying the market is really starting to feel the weight of its big gains seen not just in the past few days, but over the course of the past few months. The indices moved a tad higher today on an intraday basis, but the lethargic effort petered out and became a modest loss. And once again, we have a lack of participation to blame for the failed rally effort.


What 99% of Investors Don't Do Well Enough. Plus, Preakness Picks.

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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And thus ends another week for the market.... with a lot less bullish enthusiasm than we saw on Thursday. While the undertow is still superficially bullish, that little voice inside my head says the undertow is still bearish. Stocks basically finished the week on the fence, which means there's nothing really to do or worry about this weekend other than enjoy the second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown contest... the Preakness.


Yes, that's right - it's horse-picking time again. We did so well with the Kentucky Derby we're going to try our hand at it again. Of course, with a horse like American Pharaoh in the mix, it's hard not to do at least pretty well.


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