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Hey, what a surprise....not! The market's struggling to follow through after yesterday's 1.0% gain, Monday's 2.3% bounce, and Friday's small advance. Looks like four consecutive days of gains is too much expect.

Still, stocks are up more than 3.0% since Thursday's close, though that followed a two-day, 6.1% plunge. Talk about volatility.

Wait though - it gets crazier than that.

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Did everyone have a good weekend? I hope so.

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I can't believe I'm saying this, but the fourth quarter is almost here. Crazy how time flies, isn't it?

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A recent article in The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the NFL team that is the most accurate in passing as measured by yards per attempt wins about 84% of the games. The piece, "It's How Well They Throw the the Ball," by Allen Barra stated that, "...the great ones lead the league in passing efficiency..." In stock picking, this comes from arbitrage opportunities like that now for Venoco Inc. (NYSE: VQ).

Warren Buffett, one of the "great ones" when it comes to stock picking, is best known for his "long term is forever" school of investing. However, according to the book, "Warren Buffet and the Art of Stock Arbitrage: Proven Strategies for Arbitrage and Other Special Investment Situations, " from 1980 through 2003 Warren Buffett made an annualized return of 81.28% from special situations such as establishing arbitrage positions in mergers and acquisitions, corporate spinoffs and other transactions. A "special situation" for arbitrage profits that are low in risk and high in rewards, i.e., "efficiency" in stock picking, now exists for small cap investors with Venoco, Inc, an oil and gas, drilling and exploration company based in Denver, Colorado.