What a difference a day makes. The major indexes across the board are cheering over the ECB's new bond buying program to help keep the cost of borrowing down for struggling economies across Europe. At least that's the perception anyway. I think the reality is on more of a weekly and monthly charting basis, stocks have most definitely had the wind at their back. Here's why.
If you have a look at this monthly chart of the ^NDX I've included here, you'll notice every time the ^NDX has traded below the 3X3 (blue line), it has managed to close back above it within three bars ever since the rally initiated itself back in the spring of '09. I've circled the three different occasions this has taken place since the rally began. That's what we call thrusting. And, there's no reason to think at this point that anything is going to change. As a matter of fact, the most recent monthly pullback wasn't even as weak as the last one. As long as we see follow through, this market could go nuts when it's all said and done.
It's important to decipher between near-term, mid-term and longer-term. For the short-term, our analysis suggested the market was due for a nice healthy pullback before resuming its upward trend. We were wrong. At least for now anyway. However, we've suggested all along that there are plenty of reasons for the markets to move higher on a mid and longer-term basis. Believe it or not, it's much more difficult to analyze a stock or index on a very short-term basis than it is to predict what's going to happen weeks and months out.
We mentioned over the last few weeks that if the markets could find some strength to the upside, it could generate a pretty fierce rally, as a result of short sellers being forced to cover up their positions. That's exactly what we're seeing today. We're seeing a parabolic move to the upside, which at some point will settle down. That's when we're going to really find out what this market wants to do. Based on today's move though, I suspect we're going to be seeing further upside in the weeks ahead.
Has all of the doom and gloom been priced in? Are we finally turning the corner to an improving economy? The markets are suggesting that's exactly what's going on, regardless of what you or I may think. As a matter of fact, should the ^NDX start gathering steam from here, there's the possibility of a 400 point move to above 3200 when it's all said and done. You heard it here first. That would be a lot of gains to be had should the ^NDX reach that level.
Today's move to the upside is the single most important move we've seen in months. After the dust settles, we're going to need to see follow through though. There still exists the possibility of a range bound market, but with the way things are starting to shape up on the weekly and monthly charts, that's starting to look less and less likely.
So what's the bottom line? On a short-term basis, we're now switching our stance to buying the dips and selling the rips. There's no value in chasing today's move. Things will calm down and that's when we'll see if the smart money will enter the market. On a mid and longer-term basis, it appears there's plenty of upside left in stocks before it's time to potentially meet the maker. Start looking for ideas with good fundamentals and attractive charts. We're going to do the same. It's time to start getting aggressive with adding new ideas to our portfolios, so be on the lookout.
With today's game changing move, the landscape of the markets has a whole new look now.