You know, despite the fact that stocks lost ground today, it's not like Tuesday's dip is a red flag of looming disaster... and this is coming from a guy who's actually on the bearish side of the fence.
On the other hand, not every major correction starts with a dramatic, crystal clear setback. Today may well be a baby step in a new bearish direction.
And therein lies the rub. We're caught between momentum and plausibility. The momentum is bullish, while the most plausible move from here is some relief from the market's overbought condition.
With all that being said, I can make today's assessment of stocks really short and sweet (which is good, as we've got something bigger things to look at anyway). And that assessment? Today's slight bearish move is an opening for the sellers and bears to start doing some more damage, but we've no evidence the sellers and the bears are actually interested in exploiting the opportunity. That evidence will come in the form of a close under Monday's low of 1547.36 for the S&P 500. Anything else, and we can chalk up today to nothing more than a little volatility.
Here's the thing... we're still leaning bearishly.
Although today's bearish volume was on the light side, it was still heavier than the volume we saw with yesterday's advance that carried stocks a little further into new-high territory. Like we told you guys a few days ago, if this rally is going to last, it needs an increasing number of buyers rather than a decreasing number of them. Tuesday's selling wasn't a high-volume affair, but it was a high-er volume move, in the other direction.
Honestly though, there's nothing about today's trading that merits any action. From here we just need to keep close tabs on the S&P 500's "lower low' floor of 1547. Moving on.
Marketwide Earnings Still Sinking
OK, no need to make a production of it since we've already covered Q4's weak earnings a few times. But, since we opened the can of worms, we do want to see it through to the end. As of the end of last week, with 99% of the S&P 500's companies having reported last quarter's results, the S&P 500 earned $23.14 last quarter.
Yes, that's worse than the $23.28 from the last time we crunched the numbers back on February 26th, when 93% of Q4's numbers had been posted. That $23.14 is also 2.5% worse the Q4-2011's results, logging the second year-over-year decline in quarterly income. Yet, the pros are still looking for a 14.7% increase in 2013's full-year earnings.
I hope my worry is unmerited. But, given how earnings are falling, forecasts are being dialed down, yet the market has rallied 9.2% year-to-date (and has rallied nearly 4% during earnings season alone), my spider-sense is tingling. It just feels like we're being set up for a stumble.
Anyway, speaking of earnings...
With 99% of companies having reported last quarter's numbers, earnings season is effectively over. But, there was one more relatively big announcement today, from Costco (COST). The discounter earned $1.10 (operating) per share, beating the year-ago figure of $0.90, and topping estimates of $1.06. The 22% increase in income wasn't the most remarkable aspect of Costco's announcement though. What was so amazing was that the bulk of the improvement was driven by sales of discretionary items, and rising membership fees. It doesn't exactly scream consumers' pennies are being pinched.
That's the last major earnings news we're going to hear until the 19th, when Adobe (ADBE) unveils its fiscal Q1 numbers. Analysts are currently looking for $0.31 per share, versus the year-ago figure of $0.57. That news kicks off a small handful of earnings announcements though. We'll dissect them for you when the time comes.
Naming Names
If you're looking for some high-octane trading ideas - and can stomach the risk - then Bio-Wire has dissected three medical device stocks making big waves right now.
One of them is Delcath Systems (DCTH), the maker of the CHEMOSAT system. This drug delivery device places chemotherapy drugs directly into the cancer-stricken part of the body, as opposed to the more common method of body-wide administration, and hoping that enough of the drug makes its way to the affected area of the body. For the time being, the CHEMOSAT system is only targeting the liver, but as Bio-Wire notes, "What makes me bullish on Delcath is the potential for adaptation of this device following potential FDA approval later this year due to the adverse side effects of traditional chemotherapeutic regimens."
The other two medical devices looked at in the Bio-Wire write-up are just as game-changing. Even if you're not planning on investing, it's worth a look, just to keep up with the latest progress on the medical device design front; there's some amazing stuff out there right now.
If you were lucky enough to own any shares of Mannkind (MNKD) before last Friday, then congratulations - you're up a solid 26%. Now get out. That's the way Bryan Murphy feels about Mannkind right now, as he explains with "Buy or Sell? MannKind Under the Microscope". Bryan's been calling things pretty well of late too, so you may want to take a minute and see why he thinks what he does.
Finally, John Udovich sounded off this morning on the upside of BlackBerry (BBRY) outside of the fact that Lenovo is mulling an acquisition. Now that the Z10 is starting to sell and the Q10 is around the corner, we have to start looking at BlackBerry in a different way. Udovich accurately describes it as "arguably the world's most hated smartphone maker back in the game", yet...
You know, all the guys and gals who work for and contribute to the SmallCap Network site serve up some great ideas, but the best ideas continue to come from the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity.
Just so you know, the Elite Opportunity service started laying out a bearish contingency plan with this afternoon's edition. That's a helpful framework, but what was really cool about Tuesday's analysis is why here and now (as opposed to last week or next week or at a different trading level for the indices) may be the time to start making such a plan. It was a brilliant point they made about where stocks are right now, literally and proverbially. Go here and see what it's all about it. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
If you're not using the SCN EO as a resource for new, actionable ideas, then you're NOT getting the best of what the SmallCap Network has to offer. On top of that, if you're not a current subscriber, then you may end up missing the bearish defense they're prepping - something you definitely don't want to do if things turn south in a hurry.