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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 68
Trading
Alert coming: Playing the Telematics Sector, SUNW update.
Stay
glued to your email box. For our weekend edition, we are preparing a Trading
Alert on an a very exciting small cap technology company that is not just
on
the cutting edge-- it may well be the cutting edge of the exploding
Telematics sector.
What is Telematics? It is way
cool technology.
A symbiosis of telecommunications
and informatics, telematics involves the integration of Global Positioning
System ("GPS") satellite technology and wireless communications technology--resulting
in a new and emerging industry poised for explosive growth over the next
3-5 years. The technology is also known as M2M (machine to machine), but
for simplicity we'll stick with Telematics.
Until recently, Telematics has been
virtually the exclusive domain of the automotive industry. And it is a
big chunk. By 2005, 17 million vehicles will be equipped with Telematic
chips that will allow tracking of fleet, rental and financed vehicles.
The obvious benefits include theft reduction, as well as asset management
and control. There are more than 600 million automobiles worldwide (144
million in the US) and 55 million being produced annually.
Telematics applications are HUGE
Currently estimated to be a $2 billion
(USD) industry, Telematics is forecast to grow to $13.4 billion by the
year 2005 (ref: Roland Berger & Partners) within the automotive
industry alone. Already, major companies such as General Motors, Ford and
BMW have jumped on board, with both GM and Ford claiming that by the year
2004-2005 every one of their manufactured vehicles will be equipped with
a Telematics device.
This
particular company of interest trumps its competitors. Instead of offering
products that are both high cost and tend to have ongoing monthly costs--as
has been the industry norm-- our target company delivers a 'stripped down'
version of the technology. Its units have an extremely low initial unit
cost, are small in size and have no ongoing fees--except, in the case of
one product, which has a pay-per --use provision. The company's devices
combine wireless communication with a web-based remote control feature
that can facilitate a virtually endless range of functionality--whether
the asset is a Porsche or a laptop.
Of its three current product offerings,
the company has a one-way communications device that enables remote activation/deactivation
of a vehicle or other financed asset. The second has the same functionality
as the first but can be configured with two-way communication and other
robust monitoring features. The third is a wireless anti-theft device that
assures only authorized use. A simple key-fob transponder 'talks' to an
automobiles wireless kill switches. If these technologies don't communicate
the car can't start-- virtually assuring total protection against theft.
Protecting
autos and just about everything else
Although the auto market is vast,
and represents potentially exponential Telematics application growth, this
isn't even the really cool part. As the most 'mature' market--although still
in its infancy-- for Telematics auto applications are the cake. The icing--translating
Telematics technology to non-automotive applications-- is going to be thick
and rich. And profitable for investors willing to take the risk associated
with early involvement.
The entire Telematics market, according
to industry analysts Gartner Group, is expected to top $27 billion by 2005
and $100 billion by 2010. And where, other than autos, will one eventually
find these chips in the future? Just about everywhere. Read on...
The potential for theft and asset
control within the auto sector, as we've said, is obvious--just think about
the savings to the financiers of fleet autos with enhanced monitoring and
reduced theft. But what about the hundreds of millions of other commercial
and retail assets? From tracking supplier pallets shipped to Wal-Mart,
to a bank or credit card company monitoring a financed computer, television,
cell phone, tractor or Cadillac: an affordable robust technology that can
not only monitor an asset's state and location, but also ensure payment
would be an exceptionally desirable commodity. No? You bet it would.
Example. Someone leases or finances
an asset; be it a car, a computer or just about anything else. How powerful
would it be to not only know where and what state that asset is in, but
also have the ability, over the Internet, to shut off that asset in cases
of late or non payment? And then be able to reinstate usage once a payment
deliquency had been cleared? Certainly it would reduce abuse and payment
delinquencies--some estimates project payment delinquencies could fall
as much as 90 percent utilizing imbedded Telematic sensors. And
to be able to do it with an extremely low per unit cost? Further, name
any insurance company that wouldn't want to locate and possibly disable
a stolen vehicle within minutes, long before it wends its way out
of the country or into a chop shop.
We have found a company with exactly
this type of technology.
Regarding Telematics, don't just
take our word for it:
"Commercial telematics will
show the fastest market growth among all telematics segments and reach
substantial penetration in six years," said Thilo Koslowski, vice
president and director of automotive research for GartnerG2. "Successful
market adoption will depend on the availability of low-cost telematics
solutions and providers' effective positioning strategies." More information
on Telematics is available here; http://www.telematicsupdate.com.
Covering your assets.
Security is a major aspect of Telematics.
Trucking companies and large asset suppliers such as the military, have
to know where their assets are, the state of the vehicle and whether it
has deviated from its assigned long haul or delivery route. Telematics
gives a company control of its assets where virtually none existed before.
We're not just talking about GPS
capabilities, but a level of control that will enhance efficiencies and
ultimately represent significant cost savings. In the New World, cost savings
are as important as profits. Active monitoring of assets will become the
norm within five years, as opposed to the current domain of those few companies
that have emerged as early adopters of Telematics technology.
Investors need to familiarize
themselves with both the potential of the Telematics sector and the players.
While
there are a couple of hundred companies that produce Global Positioning/communications
products--primarily for the automotive market-- we feel confident that we
have found a situation for our readers that will stand out from the crowd,
has extraordinary potential and trades for less than $1.00 per share.
We'll see you on Friday. If you have
to guess, we'll give you a clue: the company isn't Lojack (NASDAQ:
LOJN).
MARKET
NOTE
Amidst
a flurry of news and one of SUN Microsystem's (NASDAQ:
SUNW) own executives declaring that customer capital expenditures
have returned, the shares rose from our Trading Alert (about two weeks
ago) level of $3.46 a share to a current price of around $4.40--an almost
30 percent return.
It sliced through our resistance
at $3.88 and moved smartly into the mid $4 range. We'll keep an eye on
SUNW, and although we received some mail contradicting our call the detractors--so
far--have been wrong. And for those who want to cop a quick profit, go ahead.
This one promises to be a good trader. Raise your stop from $3.20 to $3.85.
Excerpt from our 10/22/03 Trading
Alert on SUNW:
Sun is projected to lose 12 cents
this fiscal year (as at January 2004) and 3 cents the following year. Any
hint of good news on either the corporate or product front could translate
positively against a stock price that has been stuck between $3 and $5
for the last year. Progress will likely be slow, but increased capital
expenditure by customers, growth in the Linux area, Sun product division
streamlining and improving sales should raise revenues and the prospects
for the share price.
Speculative? For sure. But then,
what hasn't been on the ash heap over the last three years in one form
or another? Maybe Sun will have a management shakeup. Maybe it will merge.
Or maybe someone will buy it for parts. Or maybe it will eventually prosper.
One thing's for sure: Sun's due for some good news or a substantive corporate
event.
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