Howdy all. How was your Tuesday? If you remained in the market through Monday's selling, then Tuesday was pretty good for you. Don't get too excited just yet though. We've seen this happen before.... about umpteen times in just the past few weeks. Reversals are the norm, and we have no particular reason to think today's bullishness is going to go anywhere. The market remains range-bound, and it's going to take more movement than this to rock stocks out of their rut. That's just as true for a breakout as it is a breakdown. We'll look at it below, but first, I want to give you something I know you're not getting anywhere else. Those of you who've been reading the SCN newsletter for a while now will know I occasionally get on my high horse to gripe about (1) how little perspective the mainstream media gives you regarding economic data, and (2) how the data they provide isn't actually the most helpful data they could give you. It happened again today. You probably already know the Conference Board reported a sharp rise in consumer confidence levels for September. The consumer confidence reading of 104.1 was the highest reading since 2007. Corporate earnings might not be so hot, but clearly something is going on out there that bodes well. Did you know, however, the monthly consumer confidence score isn't the only thing the Conference Board posts every month? There's a lot more data buried in its reports, though much of it is behind a pay-wall. These other data sets portray expectations, the employment situation, and more. One of my favorite data nuggets the Conference Board posts every month is arguably the one talked about the least... consumers' intentions to by a vehicle or a major appliance within the next six months. I like this data simply because, amazingly enough, it's reasonably accurate. Take a look. A little more than 49% of the U.S. population intends to buy a major appliance within the next six months (purple). That's a lot, but more important to me is the fact that, though it's been choppy, it's a figure that's broadly growing. On the other hand, only 11.4% of the U.S. population intends to purchase an automobile within the next six months (orange), and it's a number that's been broadly sinking since a peak in 2014. Those of you who've been following the auto sales saga for a while will likely know 2015 was presumed to be a cyclical "peak auto," and in retrospect, it makes sense. Consumers said they were going to do it in 2014, and then they did it in 2015. Though I'd say the lag time is closer to a year than six months, consumers did indeed warn that 2016 was going to be a year of deteriorating auto sales. So far, 2017 is going to be even worse for the automobile industry than 2016 has been. Here's an overlay of the Conference Board's automobile-purchase intent survey and actual auto sales (green). It's not a clean correlation, but it is an undeniable one. As for what this means, at the very least I think this should force you to think twice about any auto manufacturer stocks you have. That's not to say you shouldn't buy them, but clearly this is a potential problem. I can't help but wonder, however, if this information is already priced into the industry's key stocks even if nobody is saying so. We just wanted you to have the information.... all the information. Do with it what you want. Along those same lines, I felt John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity Pro newsletter hit the nail on the head today when he passed this perspective along: "Quite honestly, I'd love to see these markets rollover for the next few weeks, because they would become far more attractive heading into what is likely to be one of the most important reporting periods we've had in quite some time. It's important to remember Wall Street has clearly set the stage from an analysts perspective for earnings to be better than they've been in quite some time, so I've got a strong feeling it's going to be a feast or famine type reporting period, one that should clearly define what's ahead for stocks over the next several months." He's exactly right. The failure of the market to pull back recently when it arguably should have essentially indicates heroic earnings expectations for Q3. The numbers confirm it. As of the latest look, Standard & Poor's says the S&P 500 is poised to report a 15.4% improvement in year-over-year earnings. That would be the best growth we've seen since Q4 of 2013, and the first y-o-y growth we've seen since Q3 of 2014. The $29.36 the pros expect the S&P 500 to earn for the third quarter is still less than the $29.60 it earned in the third quarter of 2014, if that helps paint the picture of how rough things have been. I guess my only question is, what's changed between Q2 and Q3 that would drive that kind of growth? The energy sector is projected to swing from a big loss to a measurable profit, which could help a lot. The energy sector was supposed to report operating profits in the prior two quarters as well, though, and that didn't happen. Healthcare, technology and basic materials are all also supposed to report solid earnings growth, but those areas haven't been reliable on the growth front either. And like John said, assuming the market doesn't implode between now and the beginning of earnings season a couple of weeks from now, that leaves stocks perched on a precarious fence. From this perspective, the fact that the S&P 500 is range-bound here sets up a move on the heels of earnings. If earnings impress and the S&P 500 finally clears what's turning into a huge hurdle at 2194, look out above. If instead the initial earnings reports are disappointing and the S&P 500 breaks below the floor at 2120, yikes. Thing is, after more than two months of pent-up movement, once something gets underway it's likely to last a while... logical or not. Like John, we're actually kind of hoping the first move is a steep pullback. Even if earnings are fantastic the market's going to have a valuation problem at the end of Q4. The last thing we want to do is start the new year out with that headwind. It's unlikely traders will be patient enough to let the S&P 500 grow into its earnings over the course of 2017. This isn't the whole story, of course. If you want the rest of the story and some specific instructions on how to trade it, John's giving that information to Elite Opportunity Pro members as well, every day.