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VOLUME 07 : ISSUE 60
How
To Find Opportunity (& Not Get A Headache)
I
hope all of you routinely read all of our commentary, as opposed to just
our e-newsletters regarding small cap trading ideas. Why? If you've recently
absorbed all of our stuff, then odds are you've also taken a way a few
great ideas and made some very good money with them. If you haven't,
don't worry - we plan on covering all the market's opportunities (regardless
of the company size) indefinitely.
Just
to illustrate how our site can be a complete investing resource,
I want to highlight some of the best non-small-cap ideas I still think
have a lot of potential. The quirk is, none of these names or ideas
were e-mailed to you when we published them - they were exclusively
found in the articles you can only read at the website.
Trader's
Corner
If
you like ideas served up to you on a silver platter, then the Trader's
Corner may be for you. The ideas are specific, complete with what we
believe are appropriate targets and stops. We've put out 14 ideas since
the column was started in September. As of today (counting closed trades
and using the current price on any open trades), we've found 11 winners.
In fact, some of them were pretty darn big winners.....Incredimail (NASDAQ:
MAIL) is up nearly 22%, while China-Mobile (NYSE:
CHL) is up by more than 20% in less than three months.
From
the names we've mentioned in the Trader's Corner, I still like the following:
Sprint-Nextel
(NYSE: S)
- We first looked at Sprint-Nextel on February
28th, right in the midst of a huge correction. So, we're actually pretty
happy to be up 15% since then. More importantly, I think this stock has
some more upside left to go. We originally suggested a target of $24.00,
which was almost reached with June's peak of $23.42. However, the pullback
to the current level of $22.10 may have bled off enough pressure to allow
the next bullish leg to carry shares even past $24.00. We're going to play
this one by ear, but I like the way the stock has built a base near $21.80
over the last several days.
Ford
(NYSE: F)
- There's certainly nothing small about this name. We mentioned Ford in
the April
30th edition of the Trader's Corner. The 10%+ move since then is nothing
to sneeze at, but a closer look at the chart shows me something potentially
even more exciting.....a possible breakout. The $9.00 area has been
a ceiling for weeks now, and months if you wanted to get technical about
it. For that matter, you could justify the $9.00 mark being resistance
for a couple of years, at least based on weekly closing prices.
Regardless,
after making several higher lows, we have to wonder if Friday served as
the beginning of a breakout move. If the market can get comfortable with
seeing Ford shares above $9.00, I can see this one potentially launching
like a rocket. After all, there aren't any barriers left I would consider
meaningful resistance. Our first suggested target was $10.00, but like
Sprint, we may end up raising the bar.
Intervoice
Inc. (NASDAQ: INTV)
- This one's a new idea, first studied on May
21st. It deserves an honorable mention in terms of future upside potential.
Though it's been flat the last couple of weeks, the longer-term momentum
may be on the verge of kicking in again, now that the 20 day moving average
line has caught up with the chart and can start offering support once more.
Heating
Up
Our
Heating
Up column examines the important market trends without necessarily
looking at specific companies. If you want some fresh perspective on growth
versus value, large cap versus small cap, industry trends, sector rotation,
and regional/geopolitical opportunities, then Heating Up is something you'll
probably want to review regularly.
Though
the column isn't focused on individual stocks, it doesn't mean it's
not actionable - it might just take a little extrapolation. Take
our March
13th edition for instance....'Are Better Bets Abroad?' In it,
we mentioned four overseas markets we felt had the potential to outperform
U.S. stocks. They were the Australian, Indian, Latin American, and Russian
markets.
Since
then, the U.S. stock-based Russell 3000 is up by 9.4%, Not bad, but think
about this....three of the four exchange-traded funds corresponding
with each of those countries we discussed actually performed better
than the Russell 3000 between now and then. The iShares Australia Index
ETF (AMEX: EWA) is up 19.5%
during that time, Barclay's iPath India ETF (NYSE:
INP) is up 27.4%, and the iShares S&P Latin America 40 (AMEX:
ILF) is up 30.9% since then. The Van Eck Global Russia ETF (NYSE:
RSX) didn't come along until late April, but the Russian Trading System
Index (RTSI) is up 4.3%
since then.
As
for some of the Heating Up ideas I still think have some life left, I don't
see a need to go back any further than last
week's edition - it was another look at international ETF trends.
The
iShares
Hong Kong Index ETF (AMEX: EWH)
is one of the few that actually hasn't done super-well lately, which
is what I like about it - it could be closer to the beginning of a move
than the end of it. Conversely, the iShares Mexico Index ETF (AMEX:
EWW) has
done exceedingly well. The reason I like its chances
going forward are simply that it has done exceedingly well in an
exceedingly consistent manner. The run will eventually wind
down, but I don't think it will be next week when it does. I could say
the same thing about the iShares Australia Index ETF (AMEX:
EWA).
With
all of that being said, I do want to point out this much international
focus is probably a rarity. More often than not, the Heating Up column
will be centered on U.S. markets; it's just that overseas markets have
been very strong of late. When that changes, so too will the topics.
And
speaking of, I want to remind you of a macro-theme we looked at in November
of last year. In a nutshell, the overall market consensus was 'growth'
would top 'value' in 2007. I disagreed. Well, year-to-date, the S&P
Barra Value Index is up 6.9%, while the S&P Barra Growth Index is up
6.4%. I'll call it a tie. Looking forward though, I still believe value
is better positioned for gains than growth is. And yes, I feel small-cap
value still offers the biggest upside potential of all.
The
Bottom Line Is....Well, The Bottom Line
So
has the Small Cap Network turned its focus away from the world of small
cap stocks? Not at all. We still firmly believe in the power of
mostly-unknown companies, just as we're firmly committed to being a resource
to bring those ideas to you. In fact, I should probably tell you.....we
expect to have a pretty exciting update for you on one of our focus small-cap
companies this Monday.
Simultaneously
though, we also believe in balance. We all actually have the exact
same goal - the best bottom line we can create. If that means the
occasional ETF or large cap, so be it.
The
key point I wanted to make today was just this - we hope you're using
the site to its fullest potential. To do so, you may want to check
in on the home page articles from time to time. This includes our Market
Wise and Technology
Trends columns as well. I suggest bookmarking the site by clicking
here. Then, just hit the 'Favorites' button on your browser,
and click the 'Add' button.
Have
a great weekend.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Email
the Editor
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
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