What
a week, huh? It was the biggest gain the market had seen in years,
but let's not forget it followed what was the worst week in years.
While the chaos may have been spell-binding, we can't let it be too
much
of a distraction. With that in mind, we've got a little business to
take care of today.
Specifically,
we want to go ahead and officially end coverage on a couple of our small
cap stocks, and we want to put another pick temporarily on the
shelf. We also want to add a stop to one small cap idea already
on the table.
Goodbye
There's
nothing inherently wrong with Applied
DNA Sciences (OTCBB: APDN), other than the pace of growth.
They're doing everything they set out to do, and we think they'll be doing
millions of dollars in business eventually. However, the pace has been
too slow to justify giving it a lot of focus when there are other,
faster-growing companies out there.
That's
not to say it's a bad long-term holding for you, as long as you understand
the kind of time it's likely to take before they start to see serious results.
They're still a well run company, and there's a market for their product
(as we've said all along). It's just a matter of productivity in
the meantime.
We're
also letting go of SpongeTech
Delivery Solutions (OTCBB: SPNG). This is one of the more confounding
stories I've seen in a while. The company exceeded every expectation
anybody
had
a right to have. Yet, the stock just didn't perform. Make no mistake
about it though - SPNG shares have been way undervalued for too
long, with a P/S ratio of under 1.0, and a projected P/E ratio of well
under 10.0.
Ultimately,
I think a fear of more dilution coupled with a bear market was more than
the stock's price could overcome. Too bad, as the math still strongly favors
SpongeTech shareholders. However, what 'is' and what 'should
be' are two different things. We've got to move on.
Note
that I'll continue to watch SpongeTech and Applied DNA, and if something
extraordinary happens in the foreseeable future I'll let you know. As far
as being a focus stock though, don't look for day-to-day coverage any longer.
We're reserving our attention for some new ideas coming soon.
The
only other company we're taking off our watchlist today is a stock we unofficially
took off our list weeks ago - Smart
Energy Solutions (OTCBB: SMGY). We've kept them in our back pocket
just to give them the benefit of the doubt. But, a little like Applied
DNA, it's just taking too long to get any revenue results. Unlike Applied
DNA, we don't plan on even keeping tabs on SMGY.
None
of this is to say these three companies can't or won't be winners at some
point. We just see better ideas coming in the near future. If you're
wondering what to do with any of these three names, you'll have to decide
what your personal timeframe and risk tolerances are, and cross-check that
against your personal expectation for each stock.
See
Ya' Later
We
hadn't forgotten about Cogent
Inc. (NASDAQ: COGT) - we just haven't had much of a chance to talk
about in light of everything else going on. As you may have suspected,
the bear market finally dug into this chart too; COGT fell under our
stop level a few weeks ago.
Though
we're certainly not advocating a re-entry right now, we're keeping Cogent
in our back pocket as a potential trading idea in the future. All the reasons
we originally liked the stock are still valid. However, the bearish environment
was just too much for COGT to resist. So, we're not saying goodbye here
- we're just saying see ya' later.
That
said, don't assume COGT will be our very next new trading idea.
Still
Around
There's
a bitter irony in our coverage ofChina
Energy Recovery (OTCBB: CGYV) - it started literally
on
the very same day the market started to fall apart.... September 12th.
Needless to say, not much of anything has been able to move against the
bearish grain, including CGYV.
Nevertheless,
we've also seen the company take great strides, fulfilling the growth promises
made over the last several weeks. We have no reason to think more of the
same isn't on the way.
However,
we do want to add one layer of detail to the trade now that it looks like
the market is stabilizing (i.e. not in a complete freefall). We suggest
adding a stop of 80 cents.
We
didn't want to issue a stop right out of the gate, as we didn't really
know how this relatively new stock was going to behave. The decision had
its upside and its downside. Now, however, we can see the
company is generating some major growth, and we believe the market will
start to see it - and start buying - soon. A stop of 80 cents gives
us adequate protection, but also gives us enough wiggle room to
let the chart turn things around.
And
What About This Market?
Surely
you didn't think we'd pass up the opportunity to tell you what's going
on with the overall stock market, did you?
Here's
the deal - don't get too enamored with last week's big win. If you
look back over the past four weeks, three of the four Mondays were bearish
disasters that followed decent rallies late in the previous week.
The only good Monday in the bunch was last week's Monday, but that was
also the first day back from the worst week for stocks ever - a bounce
was to be expected. I don't know why this pattern unfolded the way
it did, and I don't care. All I know is unless last week broke the streak,
we may be back in the hole by Monday afternoon.
On
the other hand, the market's dynamics over the last two weeks - or more
accurately, the change in dynamics between last week and the prior week
- may truly point to further upside. For instance, cash positions are
now back up to levels not seen since late 2002. So, there's a lot of
money on the sidelines that could come flowing back in at any time.
I've
been blogging almost all of these dynamics every day, so I'm not going
to recite them here. If you missed them though, you really should check
out the blog - this has been a fascinating month. A lot of the bottom
signs have been made, even though it's not clear if the bottom is in place
yet.
With
that in mind, the coming week will help us do what we can't do right now,
which is determine where stocks are headed next. Like we mentioned, most
of the recent Mondays have given us huge selloffs, so survival is critical
now
if there's to be any bullishness ahead. Needless to say, that will
be our focus (in the blog and the newsletter) over the next few
days. Stay tuned.
In
the meantime, we will let you know there are some stocks on the rise
again. Most are still troubled, but seeing a few of them
move higher tells us the overall market tide isn't overwhelming anymore.
We'll have some of those emerging leaders coming to you soon.