Hmmmm. Interesting. This morning it looked like we would indeed get that bounce from the selloff we'd suffered over the course of the prior three days. Then around the middle of the day it looked like the buyers had already gotten tired, and were more than willing to yield to the bears again. Then by the end of the day, stocks had managed to fight their way back to what was basically a breakeven. Thrillsville... not! You know what though? Even buried in today's indecision there are clues worth a closer inspection. The first thing we need to do, however, is set our target price on gold like we promised you we'd do yesterday. Before we do anything else though... Congratulations! Congratulations to any of you who are also SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity subscribers. Today, John Monroe and his team banked a profit of more than 100% on the SCN EO's BioTelemetry (BEAT) trade, in less than six months. That's about as good as it's going to get when you're trading stocks. If you've not yet taken the opportunity to see what the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity is all about by using your free two-week trial, what are you waiting for? Again, these guys just booked a triple-digit gain! I've never met anyone who couldn't use a big trade like that in their portfolio. If you're just not sure it's for you, it costs nothing to take a test drive. Sign up today. Here's how. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Gold's Not Hit Bottom Yet I'm not going to belabor the point or this analysis today, just because I don't have the time or the desire (or the space) to do so. Here goes. Our target price on gold is $1040 if - and that's a big if - gold prices can crack the support level at $1190. Those numbers weren't randomly pulled out of a hat. If the $1190 level rings a bell, it might be because it's a line in the sand we drew for gold way back at the beginning of the year. That's where gold's 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line (of the entire 2007-2011 rally) can be found. And, as you can see with a closer look at the chart, the 61.8% retracement/$1190 level was a major line in the sand during the July lull as well. Point being, we can't assume it won't act as a floor again. If it does fail to hold gold up though, a trade to $1180 or so will likely jump-start a pullback all the way to the $1040 area (dashed). That line was a significant ceiling when things were turbulent for gold back in 2007 and 2008. And if the $1040 area snaps, then you better hang on tight, 'cause there's no real floor until we get back to $725 where the whole shebang started. Take a look. Now, we already talked about how gold demand - actual buying - was waning in yesterday's newsletter, so I'm not going to rehash that point again today. I will, however, point out to you that interest rates (yields on 10-year bonds to be specific) are on the rise, which generally tends to coincide with falling gold prices. In fact, as you can see on the chart of the 10-year treasury yield (TNX), a key resistance line has already been snapped. While it would be very helpful for the gold bears to be able to say the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) was on the rise as well, we can't say that. We can say that at least the dollar isn't losing value though, and that's certainly not helping gold's price strength. And, I've got a feeling the environment we're in is one that will only continue to inflate interest rates. [Generally speaking, rates rise and the sawbuck's value falls in tandem, though the relationship is never 100% predictable or consistent.] As for the market today... Finally Forcing the Issue I've described this situation in detail before, so I'm not going to give you the full sermon again. I'll just say that doji days like today - where the open and the close are right at the same level, and both are right in the middle of the high-to-low range - tend to materialize at key reversal points. Ditto for the VIX. The fact that volume was a strong as it was today (which was strong, though not superb) also indicates the session was a pivot point. With all that in mind, if we're taking the admittedly-tepid clues at face value, you could make a decent case that the weakness between Friday and yesterday was sufficient to hit the market's reset button, which would allow the uptrend to get underway again. Take a look at the chart; you'll see what I mean. Just for the record though, I'm still making any major bullish bets. See, had this doji and the modest volume spike occurred at the S&P 500's lower Bollinger band at 1757, I'd be more inclined to say stocks were ready to rally again. We've only given up 0.8% from last Wednesday's close to today's close though, which is a pittance, and doesn't even set up a dead-cat bounce let alone a full-blown rebound. My guess is, today's indecision was mostly created by the bulls believing they're supposed to put up a fight at the 20-day moving average line. The thing is, the fact that they're putting up a fight here may still actually reverse the downtrend and renew the uptrend. We just don't know yet. We do know, however, things are finally starting to get interesting now that the bulls and the bears are both daring the guys on the other side of the table to make their move. For what it's worth, the market is still up 58% since September of 2011 without suffering a 10% pullback (or more) at any time between then and now. That's crazy, and though I was the one who told you that we can't assume big correction is going to hit us at any given time, I'll admit it's still a little unnerving... to me anyway. The market is like the ocean - you can't take good weather for granted. I don't want to make any kind of call today, but I'm certain we'll have some real clarity on things by the end of the week. That clarity may even be in place by tomorrow. If we get it then, we'll start talking targets again.