Howdy folks. How was your Thursday? You know, after Wednesday's move into and above some rather important technical resistance, I have to confess I was feeling a little curious. While I know stocks have a valuation-based ceiling nearby, with the major indices punching through some resistance, I was at least willing to entertain the idea of some follow-through on the thrusting move. And then I remembered something I said last week... the market may do everything it can to make the masses believe a breakout is inevitable, and then pull the rug out from underneath them. With today's feeble follow-through withering away to nothing by the time the closing bell rang, I just want to reiterate that possibility today. That is, this market remains elusive, and the things that should work haven't been working very well. I'll give credit where it's due. The S&P 500 has punched through a falling resistance line on its weekly chart. Also notice, however, the bullish volume over the past four weeks has been pathetic. A rally needs more participation than this if it's to last. Also notice the VIX didn't break below a pivotal floor at 11.8, indicating there's not actually a lot of faith in this bullish effort; a lot of people are still hedging against a pullback by using options. You can see all of this in more detail on the daily chart below. The S&P 500's horizontal ceiling at 2077 was breached, but that may be nothing more than a setup for a pullback. Or, it may actually be the real deal... a real breakout thrust that just took a break today. I'll just throw this wrench in the works for today if that's what you're thinking: While today was still slightly bullish for the market, there were more NYSE decliners than advancers today, and there was more NYSE down-volume than up-volume ... and not by just a little bit. I'm not making that up either. The chart below illustrates the oddity, with numbers. How does this happen? It indicates only a small number of very large stocks carried all the weight on Thursday. Most stocks sat the rally out. Rallies need consistently-positive breadth and depth. The current rally effort didn't have that today. If you're frustrated, frankly, you should be. This schizophrenic market has been too unusual for too long, zigging when it should be zagging. The advancer/decline and up-volume/down-volume chart above is just one example of this. As for what you can do about it... John Monroe had a great message for Elite Opportunity subscribers today about what kind of mindset we all need to have in this nutty environment. Here's part of what he said: "...when certain technical shoes start to drop, the markets seem to go the other way every single time. I'm really starting to believe the only way to play these markets on a short-term basis is to play contrarian at those absolute extremes on a long-term basis. In other words, it's entirely possible and potentially more prudent to focus more on the long-term charts from now on, rather than their short-term counterparts. I've alluded to this on a few previous occasions, but my conviction is becoming increasingly stronger. The bottom line is when you consider the way these markets have been behaving for several months now, it appears the best time to act is to play contrarian at ... . I've always said, long-term charts are far more reliable than their short-term counterparts, and it appears as though the context for this is becoming more and more relevant. With that, if we use the NASDAQ's weekly chart below as the gauge, then there should exist another opportunity to strongly question these markets right around..." Well, obviously there's more, but I can't tell you everything he told EO members today. I especially can't tell you the key ceiling he sees for the NASDAQ 's weekly chart. Anyway, John's exactly right. It's a message I've preached before. That is, a lot of people like to think they're true long-term investors, but they're really traders. Conversely, there are some traders who end up becoming accidental long-term investors. It's a problem, because trading one as if it's the other usually means both are done poorly. You have to decide which of your picks are trades, which are investments, and treat each appropriately. If you're just looking to trade or invest in the broad market, the same idea applies. Don't confuse one with the other. I get it - it's easier said than done. It has to be done though, because your money is at stake. And if you think that's been your big stumbling block of late, I strongly recommend you become a member of the Elite Opportunity service. See, not only does John understand the difference between short-term and long-term trends, he teaches EO members as he walks them through his analysis. I can honestly say I haven't just gotten a bunch of great trading ideas from John, but have become a better trader AND a better investor by having access to his analysis The snippet above was just a small taste of John's insight. Here's how you can get a grip on the market's trade-worthy trends, long-term and short-term, and treat them properly. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ In Other News Just a couple of other things today, beginning with a notification of something you long-time SCN readers may want to look at. Remember CEL-SCI (CVM)? This biotech company has been on our radar for years. It's developing a head and neck cancer drug called Multikine that truly is impressive. Well, it looks like phase 3 trials of the drug are finally winding down, as Dr. John Faessel explained in detail today. Whether you've been on board with CVM since the beginning or if today's the first time you've ever heard of it, it might be time well spent seeing what Faessel had to say - it's pretty complete, as is the last stage of the trial before the company asks the FDA for an approval of the drug. By the way, if you've got something to say about another biopharma name, feel free to post it at the site too. There are far more great biotech stories out there than we can keep tabs on ourselves. You may even see your write-up featured here in the newsletter. The other item... I've been looking for some sector-based and industry-based trends to show you of late, but haven't found many. They're already too overbought, or not well-developed enough. We need one that's "just right." Well, we may have finally found it today. The chart below is the Dow Jones Aluminum Index (DJUSAL), consisting of - obviously - aluminum stocks... mostly Alcoa (AA). It's noteworthy simply because it's on the verge of punching through a pretty big resistance line at 84.6. The bulls have been ready to break through for a few weeks now. Normally I wouldn't bother showing you a chart of a setup that's not quite in place yet. I've just got a good feeling about this one though. Maybe that's because I've been watching the underlying chart of aluminum prices. That's the chart below, which comes from Kitco Metals (www.kitco.com). I know with just a quick glance it merely looks range-bound. The longer one studies the chart, however, the clearer it becomes the tide is turning upward. We've now made a string of higher lows and higher highs. That chart looks like it's trying to find a way - any way - to move higher again. Underscoring that premise is the contrarian take on the fact that Alcoa just dialed back its 2016 aluminum-growth outlook. We'll take a closer look at this next week, hopefully after DJUSAL and/or Alcoa get over their humps.