Hope you had a nice weekend. We're back after it today and there's plenty to discuss after Bernanke lit a fire late last week that will likely take quite some time to determine if it was the right thing to do for the long-term health of our economy or not. As Greenspan put it, are we just kicking the can down the road knowing we'll have to deal with it at some point? Or, have Bernanke's policies been a necessary evil based on what could have happened should the Government had done nothing? This is a huge debate that appears to have literally divided this country.
We received a lot of newsletter feedback since Bernanke's announcement last week, and I can't tell you just how strong opinions on both sides of the camp have been. Let's just say the difference of opinions are polarizing. I, for one, would have done things much differently on the heels of the mortgage crisis. Who's fault was it home buyers went out and leveraged themselves to the gills? Should financially responsible citizens have been punished while irresponsible citizens were bailed out? Should our government have selectively let irresponsible financial firms fail rather than bail them out? The list of questions goes on and on.
I will just say this... from my own personal perspective, I always have and always will sit in the camp which votes for less government. And, for the record, not everyone here at the SmallCap Network feels the same way. However, we all make decisions and we should all be responsible for those decisions. That's my view in its simplest form. This November, we all have the privilege to go out and vote. I suggest, regardless of which camp you subscribe, to that you go out and vote. At the end of the day, it's our choice who we put into office and it's going to be us that deals with the consequences and/or benefits of those choices. Period. I'm not interested in turning our newsletter into a political or monetary policy debate, so we're going to leave it at that.
Right now, right or wrong, the perception we've gotten from the markets is that Bernanke's policy decisions have been welcomed. The key word here is perception. Why? Because the jury is still out until all of his moves have been digested and worked through the system for the long haul. We've been saying for quite some time we don't necessarily believe corporate earnings have been impacted by monetary stimulus. We believe the rally, which started in April of '09, has been attributed to executive management figuring out ways to become more efficient, leaner and more productive based on what they've had to work with. By being forced to meet and beat Wall Street estimates, corporate America found a way.
However, now that most all strategies have been exercised and employed to expand and produce internal growth at the corporate level, is the consumer and productivity in this country going do its part now? I suspect we're going to start finding that out very soon.
If you disagree with anything we've said here, so be it. The bigger debate at this point should be, are we approaching a top in the market? That's the question we're more interested in helping you and ourselves find answers to.
From a technical perspective, we've been saying for quite a while the weekly and monthly charts have continued to suggest the markets want to go higher. However, since reading and analyzing charts are obviously so leading in nature, how do you know a top is forming before it's too late? Charts that are performing in an orderly manner will usually always continue to look good until some sort of reversal indicator rears its ugly head. I will point out that over the last few weeks, there have been some short-term reversal signals that were confirmed only to have the indexes wipe them out and move higher. There's a seriously strong bullish undertone that steps into this market right at the point we're things start to look concerning. Coincidence? I doubt it.
Using Fibonacci expansion levels are one way to try and predict where a stock or an index may gravitate to before it runs into resistance or support. Friday, we provided you with a very short-term technical reason why this market may want to take a breather, as well as a monthly look at the S&P using Fib expansion levels. I also spent some time this weekend having a hard look at all of the major indexes on more of a longer-term basis. This is what I found. Since I always use the NDX, COMPQ and S&P, I'll provide you with a monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average here today along with the Fib expansion levels I mentioned above. It really doesn't matter which major index we use because they're all telling us the same thing.
You'll notice here I've drawn Fib expansion levels on a monthly basis from the bottom of the 2011 low, to the top of the spring high of this year and back off the summer low of this year. What's the verdict? There sits a very logical profit objective around 13,832 on the DOW. I've pointed out the level in this chart as you can see. What's interesting about this particular level is it's just shy of the DOW's all-time high from 2007, which I purposely included in this chart (far left) for this very reason. If the DOW stalls at roughly that 13,832 level and starts to show signs of a long-term reversal, that could spell trouble. However, should the DOW take a breather there and reposition itself to break above that resistance level, the next logical step would be to break above its all-time high and gravitate toward just under 15,000.
So, which will it be? We'll only know once we get there. For now though, it appears the DOW is going to want to test that 13,832 level, which is a good 300 points from where we're at now. Whether you fundamentally believe the major indexes deserve to go higher from here or not, it's important to remember until proven otherwise, the trend is your friend. The bottom line here is there appears to be more upside left in stocks, at least for the time being. However, once we achieve the level/s mentioned above, we'll reassess from there and see just exactly where our economy and corporate earnings are at that point.